The German economy is weakening — and yet many sectors , including the , as well as IT, and construction. Germany also has a shortage of educators, cooks, and people who can drive trucks and buses. At the end of 2024, there were around 1.4 million unfilled positions in German companies nationwide.
At the same time, more and more . In 2024, the proportion of foreign employees was just over 16%. It has more than doubled since 2010. Employment in medical professions is disproportionately high. More than one in six doctors is a foreign citizen. In nursing, employment growth since 2022 has been exclusively attributable to foreign personnel. Currently, one in five workers in this sector is an immigrant.
Thinking about leaving
But do these people actually want to stay in Germany in the long term? The Institute for Employment Research (IAB) at the Federal Employment Agency has now presented a study on this issue, based on a representative online survey of 50,000 people born abroad who immigrated to Germany between the ages of 18 and 65. The survey excludes asylum seekers who do not yet have recognized residence status in Germany. The survey period ran from December 2024 to April 2025.
“Twenty-six percent, or around 2.6 million people, say that they actually considered leaving Germany last year, i.e., they thought about leaving the country,” said Yuliya Kosyakova, head of the Migration, Integration, and International Labor Market Research Division at the IAB, as she summarized the figures at the presentation of the study in Berlin. “Around 3%, or 300,000 people, already have concrete plans to leave.”
Germany as a stopover
About half of those who do not want to stay would like to return to their country of origin, while the other half want to move to another country. Poland and Romania are the most popular destinations among those who want to return. And for those immigrants who wish to move on to a third country, people expressed Switzerland, the US, or Spain as top envisaged destinations.
“A key finding of our survey is that it is precisely those who moved to Germany to work or study, who are better educated or more economically successful and who have a better command of the German language, who are more likely than average to consider leaving or express concrete plans to emigrate,” said IAB researcher Katia Gallegos Torres.
Emigration is a risk for Germany
Immigrants with a master’s degree or doctorate and higher earners in particular have considered leaving Germany in the last twelve months. “In knowledge-intensive service sectors such as IT, finance, and business-related services, between 30% and 39% of those surveyed are considering emigrating,” said Gallegos Torres.
There are also “significant” emigration trends in healthcare, manufacturing, and logistics. “In summary, these are precisely the people that Germany urgently needs to secure its skilled labor force. This selective emigration poses considerable risks for Germany’s economic future.”
High taxes and increasing discrimination
But what are the reasons? Family reasons play a major role for those returning home, while immigrants who want to move to another country are primarily looking for better career opportunities and higher earnings.
Taxes and social security contributions and too much bureaucracy in Germany are frequently cited reasons for leaving. Added to this are .
“Almost two-thirds of immigrants report perceived discrimination, for example at work, on the housing market, in public spaces or in contact with the police,” says Gallegos Torres. “A third of immigrants also feel either not at all or only slightly welcome. These are factors that significantly increase the tendency to emigrate.”
Political mood has a deterrent effect
The study shows that the political atmosphere in Germany has also played a role. “In 2024, the debate was very much dominated by the issue of migration, and social acceptance was not particularly high,” noted Kosyakova.
Just over a quarter of people in Germany have some kind of a migration background. Some 21 million people have either come to Germany themselves since 1950 or have parents who did. Some 6.5 million people have come to Germany since 2015 alone. The largest groups among them are Syrians and Ukrainians.
In the federal elections in February, the far-right , which advocates for the deportation of millions of people with non-German roots, became the second strongest political force in the country. Meanwhile, the conservative CDU won the election after promising a tougher immigration policy.
Now in coalition with the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the CDU’s first migration policy measure was to .
Similarly, a plan to allow well-integrated immigrants to , established by the last government, was immediately abolished. “These big debates about migration and migration policy have a negative impact on people, on the feeling of welcome, on experiences of discrimination,” said Kosyakova. “These are reasons why people report thinking more often about emigrating or actually planning to leave Germany.”
Germany cannot afford emigration
Experts consistently calculate that Germany needs around 400,000 additional immigrants per year who will stay permanently in order to maintain its labor force potential.
This, they argue, is also the only way to balance demographic trends. Germany is an aging country. There are more and more pensioners and fewer and fewer people in work. This not only leads to a labor shortage, but also to a lack of government revenue to finance pensions.
Against this backdrop, the IAB study shows that “not only immigration, but also the long-term retention of immigrants is a key challenge,” according to Kosyakova.
Motivating people to stay
Overall, there are many indications that government measures such as reducing bureaucracy, simplifying the recognition of qualifications, increasing digitalization, and providing tax breaks could reduce the tendency to emigrate, especially among professionally successful immigrants, say the IAB researchers. However, they add that “broad and honest” social acceptance is also needed.
Meanwhile, the CDU is now calling for foreign medical students not to be allowed to leave so easily after graduating. Anyone who studies in Germany should follow their studies by working as a doctor for at least five years — preferably in rural areas of Germany, where there is a growing shortage of medical professionals. “Those who do not want to do so must repay the costs of this first-class education,” said Sepp Müller, deputy chairman of the CDU group in parliament. The Health Ministry, also run by the CDU, has welcomed the proposal. “We must attract young doctors to work in Germany instead of watching them leave,” explained Tino Sorge, state secretary in the ministry.
This article was originally written in German.
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