In the hours after Israel launched its most brazen attacks yet on Iran, Arab countries — many of which are no real friends of the Islamic republic — quickly condemned the Israeli aggression.
Arab leaders denounced the Israeli strikes as “heinous attacks” and “violations of international law.” But amid the chorus of criticism, one key player in the region has remained notably silent: Syria.
The decision by Syria’s new government, led by President Ahmed al-Shara, to remain silent is a sign of just how much the geopolitical sands have shifted in the country since rebels toppled the Assad regime in December, analysts say.
That regime was among Iran’s closet allies in the region, providing key support as Iran built up its network of anti-Israel militias, the so-called Axis of Resistance, across the Levant.
But since coming to power, the new government has made clear that Iran’s proxies are no longer welcome in Syria and pledged that it would not allow any armed groups to launch attacks into Israel from Syrian soil.
That pledge is part of Mr. al-Shara’s effort to win support from Western countries and also the result of deep-seated resentment toward Iran, which provided military aid to the dictator Bashar al-Assad to fight rebel forces during Syria’s nearly 14-year civil war, analysts say.
Now, the conflict between Israel and Iran has offered Syrian authorities an opportunity to prove that they will make good on their promises — and to win the Western support Mr. al-Shara has sought to garner since taking power.
“Syria’s silence is a strong signal to Israel and the United States that Syria is not part of this axis any more and that Syria’s land, its soil, won’t be used by any regional force to launch attacks against Israel,” said Ibrahim al-Assil, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
Syria’s new government “promised that, and now they are showing it,” he added.
Syria’s new leadership has shown once-unimaginable openness to engage with Israel since taking over.
In recent weeks, Mr. al-Shara’s government has been involved in direct talks with Israeli officials over security matters, according to two officials with knowledge of the discussions — a notable shift for two countries that for decades have been on opposite sides of conflict in the Middle East.
Israel has occupied the Syrian Golan Heights since the Arab-Israeli war in 1967. After the ouster of the Assad government, it sent additional troops to the area and carried out hundreds of airstrikes on military bases and weapons depots in Syria, citing concerns that country’s south might fall under the sway of extreme groups that could threaten Israel.
But over the past month, the pace of Israeli bombardment in Syria has slowed. The United States has also called for Syria’s new leaders to establish relations with Israel and eventually normalize ties.
Mr. al-Shara has not said he would consider doing so. And while most expect his government would welcome a more weakened Iran from this conflict, that outcome could also provide Israel with more leverage to pressure Syria into normalizing relations, analysts say.
“I think the al-Shara government would like nothing more than a potential outcome where Iran is weakened, contained and can’t be a regional destabilizer,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
But that could lead Israel to press Mr. al-Shara to establish ties and give the country a right to militarily respond to what it deems security threats within Syrian territory, she added.
The growing conflict between Israel and Iran has also stoked fears among Syrians that their country could be dragged into the conflict between Iran and Israel.
In Dara’a, a city in southern Syria, residents have watched the night skies light up as missiles have flown between Iran and neighboring Israel.
Mr. Mahmoud Abdul-Omar, 46, a Dara’a resident, said that he spent two nights sheltering inside his home with his children and wife after seeing missiles overhead on Saturday — an image that felt all too familiar in a country that has just emerged from its own civil war.
“I honestly can’t believe the war is over,” he said, referring to the Syrian civil conflict.
“We’re coming out of a tragedy and a long, difficult war in Syria,” he said. “We want peace.”
“God willing,” he added, “Syria will have nothing to do with this and will stay safe.”
Reham Mourshed and Adam Rasgon contributed reporting.
Christina Goldbaum is the Afghanistan and Pakistan bureau chief for The Times, leading the coverage of the region.
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