An airstrike on an Iranian Embassy building in Syria last year that killed several senior Iranian commanders. The assassination three months later of one of Iran’s top partners while he was visiting Tehran, the Iranian capital. The Israeli bombings of Iranian air defenses in April and October 2024. The systematic decimation or defeat of Iran’s strongest allies around the Middle East, including the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah and former President Bashar al-Assad in Syria.
Iran is often portrayed as one of the world’s most dangerous villains, a rogue state whose growing nuclear program and shadowy military capabilities threaten Israel, the United States and beyond. But the country has suffered blow after blow since war erupted between Israel and Hamas in October 2023, soon drawing in Hezbollah and then Iran itself.
Those losses culminated on Friday in the start of an Israeli campaign that has gone after targets across Iran, crippled its air defenses and killed several of its top military commanders and a number of prominent nuclear scientists. The new round of conflict has killed hundreds of people in Iran and at least 24 in Israel.
Earlier attacks and assassinations in Iran humiliated Tehran, causing recriminations among military officials and pushing it to launch retaliatory barrages against Israel. But the renewed fighting has shown, as never before, just how compromised and weak Iranian forces really are.
“Iran has basically demonstrated again that it was outgunned and outsmarted again by Israel,” said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
Lacking anything close to the conventional military might of Israel or the United States, its longtime enemies, Iran’s strategy for protecting itself had for years rested on the idea that the combination of its partners in the region and its own missile capabilities would be enough to deter attacks on Iranian soil.
Hezbollah sat on Israel’s northern border. Iran-backed militant groups in Iraq could target American military installations there. And Tehran could launch a barrage of missiles and drones into Israel that would potentially overwhelm Israeli air defenses and shatter the country’s sense of security.
Or so the thinking went.
Instead, Israel demolished Hezbollah in a war on Lebanon last year, then turned the same playbook on Iran. Israeli intelligence managed to penetrate Iran so thoroughly that Israel was able to launch drone attacks on Iranian targets from inside Iran on Friday and killed some of the most senior figures in the Iranian military’s chain of command.
That in turn delayed Iran’s retaliatory response, giving Israel time to prepare for Iran’s missiles, and to launch more attacks.
Vivian Yee is a Times reporter covering North Africa and the broader Middle East. She is based in Cairo.
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