Iran has now withstood three days of Israeli attacks, which have killed more than 120 Iranians, including several members of its military leadership.
But its own response has been to hit back in a manner that Israel has never had to experience – with Iranian missiles causing devastating damage in Israel’s biggest cities – including Tel Aviv and Haifa.
How much damage both sides have caused – and in many cases what sites have exactly been hit – is unclear, with accurate facts hard to come by due to the information war that has accompanied the military conflict.
It is also hard to know how many missiles and munitions both sides still have in their stockpiles, and how long Israel and Iran can sustain this fight.
What we do know is that Iran is believed to have the largest missile programme in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic missiles available with varying ranges and speeds. At the current rate, Iran could likely carry on attacking Israel for weeks – enough time for Israel to experience significant damage, which its population is not used to after years of only really being exposed to attacks from weaker armed groups in the Gaza Strip, Lebanon and Yemen.
Iran is also revealing how effective its more advanced missiles can be. The Haj Qassem missile, used for the first time against Israel on Sunday, was able to evade Israeli air defences, and footage from Israel clearly shows the difference in power and speed compared to the older missiles that Iran had been using in its earlier barrages.
Of course, Iran does not have an unlimited amount of these more advanced missiles, and ultimately will have to ration their use, but coupled with its more standard missiles, and thousands of drones, Iran has enough military ability to cause Israel damage – and confound those who believe that Iran does not have the strength to continue the fight in the short term.
Avoiding a US fight
Israel’s Iron Dome is being severely tested by Iran’s missile barrages, but it has been able to lean on its principal ally, the United States, to provide assistance in intercepting the attacks.
The US, led by President Donald Trump, has insisted, however, that it is not a party to the current conflict between Israel and Iran, and has threatened that the consequences will be severe if Iran does attack US interests in the region, which include military bases dotted throughout the Middle East.
For Iran, any attack on US bases or personnel is a worst-case scenario that it wants to avoid. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has typically made cautious moves and will not want a direct fight with the US, or to give an excuse for Washington to add its own offensive military might to Israel’s.
A joint Israeli-US attack would likely have the ability to destroy Iran’s most well-protected nuclear sites, and give the Israelis a far stronger position.
It would also likely involve attacks against US bases located in countries – such as Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye – that are not direct enemies of Iran, and which Tehran will not want to bring into the conflict. These countries are also valuable to Iran as potential mediators.
But Iran has other options. It has has repeatedly threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, which lies between itself and Oman, immediately stopping the transit of millions of barrels of oil a day. Oil prices – which have already briefly shot up to a high of $78 per barrel on Friday before falling back – would likely rise higher than $100 if that were to happen, experts believe.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is a strong card the Iranians have to play, and is a possibility in the short term should the fighting continue.
Off-ramps
But ultimately Iran will be looking for an off-ramp that would end a conflict that has the potential to escalate into a regional war against two nuclear powers – Israel and the US – and cause untold damage to its own economy, with the possibility of domestic unrest as a result.
Iran will also know that while Israel will have its own limit on how much fighting it can endure, the support of the US gives it the ability to replenish munition stocks easier than Iran can.
The Iranian government has already made it clear that it will reciprocate if Israel stops its attacks, and is willing to return to nuclear talks with the US. “Once these [Israeli] attacks come to a stop, we will naturally reciprocate,” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday.
This, however, depends on the US and its unpredictable president. Trump will need to put pressure on Israel and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop, and it is unclear whether the US president is willing to do so.
Trump’s rhetoric on the conflict is constantly changing. On one hand, he has repeated calls for an end to the fighting, while at the same time threatening Iran.
Iran also knows that Trump is not someone who can be trusted or relied on. The US was involved in the deception prior to Israel’s attack last week, with the Americans maintaining the pretence that nuclear talks with Iran would go ahead on Sunday despite secretly knowing that Israel was planning to attack.
Still, an American-brokered agreement is the likeliest option Iran has to restrain Israel and end a conflict that has shown Iran’s strength, but will be increasingly difficult for it to sustain.
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