The Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin probably did not utter the maxim often attributed to him: “Probe with bayonets. If you encounter mush, proceed; if you encounter steel, withdraw.” But it’s an accurate description of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s methodology.
A former KGB man, Putin began his long reign in 1999 by launching a war with Chechnya in retaliation for apartment bombings in Russia which he blamed on Chechen terrorists, but which may have been carried out by Russia’s FSB intelligence service. In 2008, Putin invaded Georgia; Russia still occupies about 20 percent of that country. In 2014, Putin grabbed Crimea from Ukraine and launched a proxy war in eastern Ukraine. In the course of that operation, Putin’s forces shot down a Malaysian airliner, killing 298 people. Seeing his aggression meet mush rather than steel, Putin must have felt emboldened. He launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
The Russian assault on Ukraine has backfired because of stout Ukrainian resistance with support from the West. Putin, who has gotten plenty of help of his own from China, North Korea and Iran, blames Ukraine’s supporters for prolonging the war. Last week, he called Western nations “sharks of imperialism” and vowed: “If anyone tries to drag us down the food chain, to gobble us up or devour us, they might get punched in the teeth.”
It is no coincidence, comrade, that Russian covert attacks on Europe are rapidly escalating. Russian drones are increasingly wandering into European airspace. Some of those incursions may be accidental, but Germany’s top general warned last month that the Russians are mapping European air defenses and probing for weaknesses. Russia is also carrying out sabotage operations across Europe. In 2024, Russian agents were suspected of trying to assassinate the head of German defense giant Rheinmetall and trying to blow up DHL cargo planes with package bombs.
Getting more mush in response, Putin has only accelerated his attacks. Last week, German authorities blamed Russia for attempted attacks in early August on aircraft at Leipzig/Halle Airport using explosive-laden drones. The Kremlin is also believed to be responsible for numerous other attacks in the past month, including arson at defense plants in Bulgaria, Italy, Estonia, Slovakia and Poland. This is known as “hybrid” or “gray-zone” warfare, but a more accurate description is state-sponsored terrorism.
NATO needs a steely response to deter Putin from stepping up his attacks on Europe. Germany announced that it would close a Russian consulate in Bonn and a Russian cultural center in Berlin. That won’t deter Putin in the slightest.
At least the Europeans are willing to call out the Russians by name. The United States is not willing to do even that much. Matthew G. Whitaker, the U.S. ambassador to NATO, wrote on X that “the United States stands in solidarity with Germany and all Allies in the face of efforts to cause harm and chaos on NATO territory,” without specifying where those efforts originate.
Trump has been entirely silent on the subject, but everything he says and does sends the wrong signal to the Kremlin. He just said that Canada is harder to deal with than China or Russia, and he invited the Russian finance minister to attend the Group of 20 summit last week for the first time since 2022.
On Saturday, Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, had a chummy meeting with Putin in the Kremlin before going to Kyiv for the first time. Witkoff told the Butcher of Buchathat “when we retire we’ll have all these incredible stories and incredible memories and yours will be right at the top of it all.”
This comes after Trump created a transatlantic crisis earlier this year by threatening to attack Greenland. He later blamed the Europeans for his failure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Throughout his second term, Trump has sharply scaled back U.S. support for Ukraine. He appeared to pivot at the NATO summit in July when he promised to allow Kyiv to manufacture its own Patriot air-defense missiles, but he has since backtracked. CIA Director John Ratcliffe went to Moscow last month to warn Putin away from escalating in the war with Ukraine, but Trump’s mixed messages undermine any such warning.
Despite Trump’s claims that Europe is taking advantage of U.S. generosity, the Europeans have already provided more total aid to Ukraine and continue to promise even more. Britain and France have recently agreed to give Ukraine a license to build its own SCALP cruise missiles.
Yet both Europe and America remain curiously reticent to provide Ukraine with $300 billion in frozen Russian funds. Sending that money to Kyiv would be the strongest signal from the West that Russia’s terrorist assault on Europe is unacceptable.
The top priority for Ukraine now is to improve its air defenses against a growing threat from Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.
Unfortunately, Trump has wasted precious Patriots in a needless war with Iran, and even if Ukraine receives a license to manufacture them, that will take years. An impending Italian delivery of SAMP/T New Generation air-defense systems should help. It would also help, as noted by my Post colleague Marc Thiessen, if South Korea were to agree to sell its M-SAM II missile-defense batteries to Ukraine. Both Europe and America need to pressure Seoul into providing this lifesaving aid before more Ukrainian civilians die in Russian missile attacks.
Meanwhile, on offense, the Trump administration needs to pressure Elon Musk to allow Ukraine to use his Starlink internet-satellite system to better target its drones against ballistic missile launchers in Russian territory.
In sum, the West needs to raise the cost of Putin’s aggression. If the response remains mushy, there is good cause to worry about Russia expanding its attacks — for example, by targeting the Baltic republics — and thereby provoking a full-blown war with NATO.
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