The reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers have not looked like a championship contender recently. In fact, the club with the highest payroll in baseball — nearly $337 million — has been less than a .500 team in June, winning just five of its 12 games, ahead of Saturday’s action.
Injuries have played a major role in the Dodgers’ struggles, with 14 pitchers currently on the injured list — 15 if Shohei Ohtani is counted as a pitcher — which is remarkable considering that a typical MLB staff consists of 13 pitchers.
So far, closer Tanner Scott has escaped the injury plague. Scott was a major free agent acquisition for the Dodgers, who inked the 30-year-old to a four-year $72 million contract in the offseason.
But Scott, who has accumulated four blown saves and two losses already, against 12 saves, has been shaky. The 2014 Baltimore Orioles sixth-round draft pick has, himself, admitted he has struggled with command of his pitches all season.
At the same time, despite a recent minor hot streak in which they have won six of eight games, the Boston Red Sox remain a game under .500 on the season, well below the team’s preseason expectations.
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That means the BoSox could be looking at becoming trade deadline sellers, shipping out at least some of their higher-priced talent in exchange for prospects, the building blocks of a better future for the club.
Aroldis Chapman, the Red Sox’ 36-year-old lefty closer, may be their most attractive trade asset.
Despite his age and 16 seasons of mileage, the Cuban native is having one of his best seasons, converting 12 of 13 save opportunities and posting a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings pitched.
Nor has Chapman lost any of his legendary velocity. He owns the fastest pitch of the season, firing a 103.8 mph fastball against the Texas Rangers on May 8. His average fastball speed of 99.2 mph ranks his heater in the 99th percentile of current MLB hurlers, the vast majority of whom are considerably younger than he is.
But the Red Sox need catching, not just now but for the future. Rookie Carlos Narvaez, acquired in a little-noticed minor-league level trade with the Yankees over the offseason, has been an extraordinary discovery, forcing himself into the AL Rookie of the Year race.
But Narvaez can’t catch every game, and as a backup, Connor Wong has been useless, with just nine hits, none for extra bases, and zero RBI in 69 plate appearances.
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Chapman is pitching on a one-year, $10.75 million contract. But he has never received a qualifying offer, which would make him worth at least $22 million for next season — with that being the set value of qualifying offers after this season.
If Chapman, as is likely, would refuse the qualifying offer, his team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere.
What does it all mean?
It means Chapman makes an attractive trade target for the Dodgers, giving them half a season of a top-tier closer for a relatively inexpensive pro-rated salary — and if he then departs Los Angeles, the Dodgers get an extra draft pick.
All they’d have to do is part with baseball’s top overall catching prospect, the No. 15 overall prospect in the game, Dalton Rushing.
The 24-year-old Rushing has already been used in the outfield by the Dodgers, who have Will Smith occupying the backstop position. Dealing Rushing would be rather easy for Los Angeles — but would immediately solve Boston’s catching depth deficiency.
The trade likely depends on whether the Red Sox’ recent run of winning represents a genuine turnaround — in which case they would want to keep Chapman in the fold — or if it is just an illusion.
By the trade deadline of July 31, the Red Sox will have a better idea, and will know whether they want to trade Chapman away at all.
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