There is a significant chance of rain across the Washington, D.C., area on Saturday, the National Weather Service said, and thunderstorms late in the afternoon or evening could coincide with events near the National Mall to mark the U.S. Army’s 250th birthday.
Thunderstorms can bring a variety of threats, including hail, lightning and damaging winds. Jeremy Geiger, a meteorologist at the Weather Service office that covers Baltimore and Washington, said the agency predicted up to an 80 percent chance of rain during the afternoon and evening.
“I think it’s going to rain based on everything I’m seeing, but there is a small chance that it just misses parts of the District,” Mr. Geiger said on Saturday morning.
Conditions are expected to be cloudy and humid for much of the day, with a high temperature of about 83 degrees Fahrenheit.
Skies were cloudy on Saturday morning but conditions were dry. Scattered thunderstorms will come from northern Maryland as the day progresses, and it’s difficult to predict their exact trajectory and where the heaviest impact will be, Mr. Geiger said. “It could be anywhere within a 50-mile area from just south of D.C. up to Baltimore,” he said.
Rainfall amounts are mostly likely to range from a half inch to 1.5 inches, but Mr. Geiger said there’s a “reasonable worst-case scenario” of 2 to 4 inches, possibly even up to 6 inches, if the capital falls within the bull’s-eye of the heaviest thunderstorms.
“Most of this rain is expected to fall within a one- to two-hour period at some point this evening,” Mr. Geiger said.
If amounts are on the higher end, the rain could cause flooding on streets, and the Weather Service issued a flood watch for the Washington area that will be in effect from 2 p.m. to 11 p.m.
“I think the most likely period is 6 to 9 p.m.,” Mr. Geiger said.
Guests are scheduled to begin arriving at 2 p.m., just as the chance of rain increases. The parade begins at 6:30.
The parade, running 1,600 yards down Constitution Avenue, is expected to feature up to 7,000 soldiers, tanks and other military equipment and a jump from an elite Army parachute team. It is also expected to include historical equipment, vehicles and aircraft owned by private collectors, and vintage aircraft will fly overhead.
Cloud cover and high winds can impact aviation and parachute jumps.
On Saturday morning, the cloud height was 1,500 to 2,500 feet above the ground, but Mr. Geiger said it could raise to 4,000 to 5,000 feet in the afternoon with clearing, and potentially lower again if thunderstorms pass through the area. He said winds during the storms could reach 20 to 30 miles per hour.
Afterward, a music concert is scheduled on the National Mall, followed by a fireworks show around 10 p.m.
President Trump said on Saturday that the parade would go on “rain or shine.”
“Remember, a rainy day parade brings good luck,” he wrote on social media on Saturday.
During a phone call between the White House and several federal agencies on Friday, officials discussed whether or not to begin Saturday’s Army parade earlier in the day to avoid the most severe weather.
According to a government official familiar with the call who was not authorized to speak publicly about the details, the National Park Service’s policy is to shelter in place in the event of lightning strikes within seven miles of a permitted event like the Army parade. The White House and the Army would make the ultimate decision on whether to continue or cancel the parade.
John Ismay contributed reporting.
Amy Graff is a Times reporter covering weather, wildfires and earthquakes.
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