As Europe rushes to rearm its military and President Trump moves away from NATO, this year’s Paris Air Show will open on a world stage that looks more uncertain than ever.
U.S. defense-industry executives flying to the biennial show, which runs from June 16 to 22, aim to capitalize on higher European defense budgets, pledges for which are expected at the following week’s NATO Summit. But the Trump administration’s anti-NATO turn—and a new push from Europe to bolster its own defense industrial base—could dampen U.S. export deals.
Europe is “very focused on using some of that defense spending to grow their industrial base so they can buy from themselves, build themselves, and not be so reliant on the United States,” said Eric Fanning, CEO of the Aerospace Industries Association, which convenes industry and government officials at overseas trade shows.
American companies see opportunity—and risk—with European defense budgets and budgets at home, Fanning said.
“There’s more underlying to this air show than any one I’ve been to before,” he said.
But despite the European push toward independence, experts say it will take years before the continent’s industrial base can stand on its own—and if countries want to stock their arsenals now, they’ll need to buy American.
The major reason to do so is the war waging just 1,300 miles away from Paris.
Russia may even escalate its war on Ukraine during the show; Moscow has promised to retaliate for Ukraine’s “Spider Web” operation, which demolished scores of Russian planes with cheap drones. That operation could drive conversations about how Western nations can quickly field new and innovative technology instead of relying on large, expensive programs.
Beyond Europe’s plans to rearm Ukraine, expect updates on how companies are navigating a murky tariff situation, NATO’s plans for its own space sector, and how militaries are progressing on next-gen technology development.
Now that the U.S. Air Force is blazing ahead with its sixth-gen fighter jet, the F-47, there could be a renewed push from Europe to make progress on its two next-gen fighter programs: the UK-Italian-Japanese GCAP and the German-Franco-Spanish FCAS. Those programs will likely be delayed and fielded much later than the F-47, due to disagreements between the multiple companies and funding concerns.
“Some have argued that two competing European initiatives are unrealistic based on the necessary funding and development effort required to field a new advanced fighter. Anticipate this idea to play out in Paris as the industrial participants and partnered nations position themselves in the sixth-gen fighter race,” said Jon Hemler, an analyst with Forecast International, a Defense One sister brand.
Europe also plans to make or acquire drones to fly alongside its fighter jets, similar to the U.S. Air Force’s Collaborative Combat Aircraft program. Paris will see the international debut of full-scale versions of CCAs by General Atomics and Anduril, which both hope to eventually sell the drones abroad.
Over 300,000 visitors are expected to attend the show at Le Bourget, but there won’t be much of a Pentagon presence. Who is expected to be there? Michael Duffey, the newly sworn-in Pentagon acquisition chief. A few Air Force officials are also expected, including Kelli Seybolt, the head of Air Force international affairs, and Brig. Gen. Jason Voorheis, the head of fighters and advanced aircraft. But Air Force Secretary Troy Meink and Air Force Chief Gen. David Allvin won’t attend.
Congress, however, will be in full force—hoping to show diplomacy amid the Trump administration’s threats to NATO. The largest-ever delegation is heading to Paris, with Sen. Jerry Moran, R-Kan, and Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-NH., leading over two dozen lawmakers. A few defense hawks are slated to attend, including SASC chairman Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., and HASC chairman Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Ala.
The U.S. will bring a slew of aircraft to the air show, including F-35, F-15E, and F-16 fighter jets; C-17 and C-130J cargo planes; the KC-46 tanker; and the MQ-9 drone.
They will be joined on the tarmac, in the air, and in exhibit halls by delegations from around the globe. China will have a large presence: Chinese commercial and military companies are listed as exhibitors, including the China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation, which builds fighters, trainers, and bombers, and Cobtec Ltd, which builds unmanned aerial vehicles.
Israeli firms on the air show’s exhibitors list include Israel Aerospace Industries, Rafael, and Elbit Systems. Much drama surrounding the country’s participation in last year’s Eurosatory defense conference: the French government originally banned Israel from the show, citing its military actions in Gaza, but a Paris court later reversed that decision. It remains to be seen how the country’s bombing campaign in Iran will be seen.
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