In September 2019, a barrage of drones and cruise missiles slammed into two Saudi oil facilities near the Persian Gulf, including one of the largest in the world, igniting small fires that briefly interrupted production.
The projectiles were later traced to Iran, and despite its stringent denials, the desire to avoid a repeat of the incident prompted a new and sustained effort by Saudi Arabia and the other Arab Gulf States to use détente and diplomacy toward the Islamic Republic to de-escalate regional tensions.
That effort is being put to the test as never before on Friday amid waves of Israeli attacks on Iran aimed at destroying key facilities and decapitating the military and civilian leadership running its nuclear programs.
“I think the tension is palpable and everybody is concerned about possible blowback,” said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa at the Eurasia Group, a New York-based risk analysis organization. “This is a moment of great uncertainty throughout the region. It is the big war the region has been both fearing and anticipating for years.”
The Gulf Arab states, and indeed much of the Arab world, were quick to issue robust condemnations of the Israeli attacks like this one from Riyadh: “The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia expresses its strong condemnation and denunciation of the blatant Israeli aggression against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran, which undermine its sovereignty and security and constitute a clear violation of international laws and norms.”
The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, and several others from the region called their Iranian counterpart to repeat the condemnation.
With the Arab world already inflamed by the Gaza conflict, a related war in Lebanon, a long-running civil war in Yemen and Syria barely staggering to its feet after 14 years of violence and civil war, there was also frustration that attempts at de-escalation had failed. It was tensions over Yemen that had prompted the 2019 attack against Saudi Arabia.
“We are frustrated and fatigued,” said Bader al-Saif, a professor of history at Kuwait University. “The region has been doing its best for the past few years to come to terms with everyone, including Israel,” he added. “But Israel is trying to reset the region to their own tune and they are trying to do this violently.”
The United States was considered part of the problem. Although President Trump kept a certain distance from the prospect of conflict between the Middle East’s two most powerful militaries, and had been trying to negotiate a new deal to defuse Iran’s nuclear program, he had not blocked Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel from launching the attack.
“After the triumphant Trump visit to the Gulf and serious mediation efforts, there will also be some frustration that Trump has proved unwilling or unable to restrain Netanyahu,” said Dr. Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, a London-based research institute.
Part of the equation is that the region depends heavily on American military power for its defense, with U.S. forces deployed at air bases in Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as well as a major naval base on Bahrain, along with troops scattered across Iraq and northeastern Syria.
While the Gulf bases were established in recent decades not least as a deterrent for Iran, there was fear that Tehran night miscalculate by targeting them, widening the conflict by drawing in the United States.
Gulf countries have all committed billions of dollars to major, futuristic development projects meant to wean their economies off oil, so a major war would also jeopardize those plans.
The attacks by Israel against Iran immediately threatened the region’s economy, with airlines canceling countless flights for the foreseeable future. Israel, Iran, Iraq and Jordan all closed their airspace. Countries like Jordan, Lebanon and Egypt that depend heavily on tourist dollars had been hoping for a revival.
Jordan said it was shooting down Iranian projectiles that violated its airspace, but underscored that it was protecting itself and not joining the war. Syria was considered completely out of this conflict.
Of course, Arab states had been worried about Iran’s acquiring nuclear weapons as well, even if there was some sense that Israel had exaggerated the threat. Crippling the Iranian nuclear program would provoke some satisfaction, analysts said, but it seemed an enormous gamble.
“If Israel and or the United States can finish off the threat to the Gulf countries via military means, I don’t think that Arab leaders will be shedding tears,” Mr. Maksad said. “The great concern is a job half-done that then leaves them wide open to retaliation and undermines their national development projects in the process.”
Two rounds of tit-for-tat attacks between Israel and Iran last year ended fairly quickly, but there was anxiety that this new one could escalate. That increased the potential for unforeseen consequences. “For the Iranians, this will require a different kind of response, more sustained and more hurtful,” said Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington.
For the moment Iran’s beleaguered proxy forces, including Hezbollah, did not react beyond verbal condemnations. Worst-case scenarios include the closure of the Straights of Hormuz, a choke point for Persian Gulf oil exports. Since Iran depends on that flow as well, even as it is limited at the moment due to sanctions, that is seen as a possible last desperate step.
“If this continues, we are going into unchartered terrain,” Dr. al-Saif said.
Ismaeel Naar contributed reporting.
Neil MacFarquhar has been a Times reporter since 1995, writing about a range of topics from war to politics to the arts, both internationally and in the United States.
The post Mideast Tense as Long Anticipated Israel-Iran Conflict Sinks Hopes for Détente appeared first on New York Times.
