Three tropical storms have formed in the first three weeks of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, with one strengthening into a hurricane.
The fact that three named storms have already formed by early June is “highly unusual,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek, considering that the first named storm doesn’t typically form until June 10 and the first hurricane not until late June.
Why It Matters
As of Monday afternoon, Hurricane Barbara and Tropical Storm Cosme were churning in the Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico. Barbara is a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained windspeeds of 75 miles per hour, and Cosme has maximum sustained windspeeds of 70 mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane later today.
Both storms formed over the weekend and follow Tropical Storm Alvin, which kicked off the Eastern Pacific hurricane season when it formed in late May. The season starts on May 15 and runs through November 30.
What to Know
Whereas so far, the Atlantic hurricane season has seen a quiet start, this year’s Eastern Pacific season is quite active.
If Cosme strengthens into a hurricane on Monday night, that would make two hurricanes before the average date for the first tropical storm. It’s not unusual to have a tropical storm form before the average first storm date of June 10, but three storms before that date is unheard of.
Although remnants of Alvin brought heavy rain across the Southwest, Barbara and Cosme aren’t expected to cause impacts to the United States. Cosme likely won’t cause any land impacts in U.S. or Mexico, but Barbara could cause some rough surf, dangerous rip currents, and gusty winds along the southwestern coast of Mexico.
Barbara and Cosme are expected to weaken later this week.
In addition to the two named storms, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring a disturbance southeast of Barbara that has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical storm within the next seven days.
AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, according to AccuWeather.
Meanwhile, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a below-normal hurricane season for the Eastern Pacific, with 12 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to 10 will likely become hurricanes, and two to five could develop into major hurricanes.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather senior meteorologist Tom Kines told Newsweek: “There’s no doubt three named storms so early is highly unusual. The first hurricane doesn’t usually occur until last week of June.”
NHC in a public advisory about Hurricane Barbara: “Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. A weakening trend should begin tonight, and the system is forecast to become a remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km).”
What Happens Next?
Another NHC update about Cosme and Barbara will be issued at 8 p.m. MST. More updates will likely be issued as the storms weaken throughout the week.
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