Even if you agree with the oddsmakers, who expect the Thunder to comfortably beat the Pacers at home in Game 2 of the NBA Finals, the player prop markets for tonight’s game offer plenty of intriguing options.
Stars Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Tyrese Haliburton will (understanably) be popular options, but it’s Pacers backup Obi Toppin who strikes me as one of the highest-upside plays in this game. In addition to Toppin, I also like Jalen Williams to bounce back after a tough Game 1
Obi Toppin o10.5 Points (+100 at bet365) — 1 unit
Toppin has had an up-and-down playoffs for the Pacers, and he was quiet in Games 1-4 vs. the Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, with just 25 total points in those games.
But including his hot night from outside in Game 1 of the NBA Finals last week, Toppin has now scored 11, 18 and 17 points in his last three games, and he’s played 25-plus minutes in back-to-back huge games for the Pacers.
While his hot shooting from 3-point land in Game 1 vs. the Thunder was almost certainly an outlier (he shot 5-for-8 from deep in that game after making 12-of-42 3-pointers in his first 16 playoff games this year), his substantial role vs. the deep, athletic Thunder makes him a tempting bet to have another solid scoring night.
At 6-foot-9 and 220 pounds, Toppin has the athleticism to thrive in this series, and he should continue to play a key role (whether he continues to knock down 3-pointers or not) vs. OKC thanks to what he gives the Pacers as a rebounder and in transition.
Obviously, a decent scoring night for Toppin will be well within reach if he’s able to hit a few more shots from outside. But he should also be able to attack closeouts and get enough looks in transition tonight to cash this prop, even if OKC prevents him from having another big shooting night.
Jalen Williams o21.5 Points (-108 at FD) — 1 unit
Whether Williams bounces back tonight will be huge for the Thunder as they look to take control of this series.
He finished Game 1 with a solid 17 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists. But his 6-for-19 night from the floor (5-for-15 on 2-pointers, 1-for-4 from 3) was a big reason OKC came up just short.
Outside of a few ugly offensive games vs. the Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals, Williams has had a good postseason, with 20.2 points per game on 44.8 FG shooting.
Those averages alone are good reason to expect a strong Game 2 from Williams. There’s also an encouraging trend in how Williams has played after his worst shooting performances this postseason. Against Denver, he followed up a 5-for-20 dud in Game 1 with 17 points on 6-for-11 shooting in just 26 minutes in Game 2.
And with his team’s season on the line vs. Denver following a disastrous 3-for-16 night in Game 6, Williams responded with 24 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists on 10-for-17 FG shooting in Game 7.
Williams also went off for 34 points in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals vs. the Timberwolves (including 14 in the fourth quarter) after a 13-point dud in OKC’s blowout loss two nights earlier.
Expect Williams’ shot volume and usage rate (19 FGA, 23.7 usage rate in Game 1) to remain substantial tonight.
He should — at minium — also shoot much better on 2-pointers in Game 2 than 33 percent. He’s made over 50 percent of his 2-point attempts this postseason after shooting 53 percent from inside the arc during the regular season.
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