Can we still trust the data coming out of the Trump administration?
It’s a question I get all the time — on social media, in comments on my stories, in conversations with friends and colleagues. That skepticism has only intensified in recent days, since the Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that it was cutting back collection of price data that feeds into the Consumer Price Index.
Here’s my answer: Yes, I still trust the data. But with some important caveats.
Many of the people asking this question are worried about the possibility of political interference in the data-collection or analysis process. There is no evidence that is happening. Major economic reports on inflation, spending, trade and jobs have continued to come out as normal, even when the news has been potentially damaging to the president (such as when the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product shrank in the first quarter).
I have spoken to people inside these agencies, and to others who have recently left, and they consistently say they are confident that the numbers being released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau and other agencies remain reliable. They also say that the longtime employees who oversee these statistics will blow the whistle if that changes. (Are you one of them? See our call-out at the end of this article.)
But while there is no evidence of political interference, many economists and other experts have a different concern: the gradual erosion in the quality of government statistics.
These concerns aren’t entirely new. Much of our economic data relies on surveys of individuals and businesses; response rates to those surveys have fallen sharply in recent years, as they have for surveys and polls conducted in the private sector.
Many statisticians believe the agencies need to adopt new methods that rely less on surveys and more on data from administrative records and private sources like credit card companies and payroll providers. But that transition would require substantial upfront investment, and the agencies have seen their budgets shrink in inflation-adjusted terms. A major report from the American Statistical Association last year warned that these long-running issues threatened the reliability of government statistics.
Those concerns have grown since President Trump returned to office. Administration officials have called into question the way the government collects data and calculates statistics, and the administration disbanded several advisory committees that provided input on statistical issues.
More directly, Mr. Trump’s freeze on federal hiring, combined with the buyouts he offered early in his term, has led to increased staff attrition at the statistical agencies. Staffing shortages appear to have been a factor in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’s recent cuts, according to information the agency provided by email to private-sector economists. Those emails were first reported by The Wall Street Journal.
Economists consistently say they still believe federal economic statistics. But they worry the numbers will gradually become more volatile and prone to larger revisions. That is bad news for policymakers, investors and anyone else who depends on accurate, timely data to make decisions.
Ben Casselman is the chief economics correspondent for The Times. He has reported on the economy for nearly 20 years.
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