Severe storms are expected to move across a wide stretch of the central United States through Tuesday, bringing threats of damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes. Forecasters also warned of flash flooding fueled by the remnants of Tropical Storm Alvin.
Two weather systems, one arriving from the north and the other from the south, are behind the potential outbreak of severe weather.
Across the eastern Dakotas, Nebraska and into the Upper Mississippi Valley, including parts of Minnesota, rising temperatures ahead of a cold front are expected to create favorable conditions for thunderstorms to develop beginning late Monday afternoon.
Farther south, another system is forecast to move northeast from northern Mexico into the southern High Plains by Monday evening, affecting areas including the Texas Panhandle.
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Monday for a broad area stretching from northern Texas through the Dakotas and into southwestern Minnesota.
“It’s mostly a wind and hail concern,” said William Churchill, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. “But there’s a low chance of tornadoes associated with those areas as well.”
Forecasters said that the storms might merge into clusters on Monday evening, increasing the risk of damaging winds.
By Tuesday, Mr. Churchill said, the two systems are expected to merge and shift east and south, bringing the severe weather threat to the south-central Plains and the upper Midwest. “Mainly from North Texas, including the Dallas-Fort Worth area, up through much of Oklahoma, through southeastern Kansas,” he added. “And then into the more populated portions of central and northern Missouri and even into portions of Iowa and Illinois, as well.”
Those areas are also under a Level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather on Tuesday, with the main hazards again being damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rain is also expected to worsen the situation, particularly on Tuesday. Forecasters said the added moisture flowing in from what used to be Tropical Storm Alvin would increase the rainfall and severe weather threat.
“It is infused into the larger system,” said Tony Fracasso, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. “That’s poised to affect the central part of the county.”
The Weather Prediction Center issued a Level 2 out of 4 risk for flash flooding for Tuesday in an area stretching from northern Texas to southern Iowa.
“We’re predicting averages of two to three inches, and there will certainly be localized totals that will be higher than that,” Mr. Churchill said.
Parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri face the highest risk for flash flooding, with the storms expected to be strong and persistent in those areas.
By Wednesday, the system is expected to weaken and move east into the Great Lakes region and the broader Midwest.
“The main energy driving the combination of those two systems is really gone by that point,” Mr. Churchill said. “But you will still have some thunderstorms on Wednesday.”
Nazaneen Ghaffar is a Times reporter on the Weather team.
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