PARIS — The last eight years have not been kind to France’s two historically dominant political parties. `But the old guard is eyeing a comeback.
With President Emmanuel Macron constitutionally barred from seeking a third term; the far right’s Marine Le Pen currently barred from running due to an embezzlement conviction; and a voting public fed up and looking for a return to normalcy, whatever that may be, France’s two establishment parties — the center-left Socialists and the center-right Les Républicains — sense an opportunity to return to the good old days of the pre-Macron two-party system.
Optimism abounds within Les Républicains after Bruno Retailleau, the popular, hard-line interior minister, won the race to become their next leader.
Now it’s the Socialists’ turn to pick someone to steer the ship. On Thursday, party members will elect a first secretary in a high-stakes vote that will determine a direction leading into the 2027 presidential election.
Old glory
What was supposed to be the highlight of Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol’s insurgent campaign to take control of the Socialist Party late last month only netted a few hundred people — mostly retirees — under the drop ceilings of a drab gymnasium in eastern Paris.
But despite the morose atmosphere, Mayer-Rossignol, the mayor of the Norman city of Rouen, and other top Socialists are confident this leadership race is a unique opportunity to rebuild and take charge of any future coalition on the left.
“We want to establish a socialist candidate, then turn to our partners on the left,” Jérôme Guedj, an influential Socialist lawmaker supporting Mayer-Rossignol, told POLITICO.
It wasn’t always like this.
Like the Democrats and Republicans in the United States or Labour and the Conservatives in the United Kingdom, French politics were dominated by two parties during the first six decades of the country’s Fifth Republic.
Macron successfully broke that duopoly in 2017, when the then-37-year-old campaigned for president on a pro-market, socially liberal platform with the ambition of uniting moderates of all walks of life.
His victory was followed by an exodus of both leadership and voters from the Socialists and Les Républicains. Centrists gravitated to Macron and his allies, while hardline voters were drawn to more radical voices — Le Pen on the right, and anticapitalist leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left.
The 2022 presidential election proved humiliating for both parties. The conservatives won less than 5 percent of the vote and the Socialists nabbed just 1.7 percent. Le Pen once again made the runoff, with Mélenchon finishing closely behind her.
Popularity remains an issue for both parties, but things are looking up. Les Républicains have found themselves back in government following Macron’s ill-fated decision to call snap elections last year. The Socialists, after watching Mélenchon dominate two consecutive presidential elections on the left, reluctantly joined forces with him. The pan-left movement that emerged ended up shocking the political establishment by winning the vote.
Reclaiming leadership
As the race to replace Macron starts to take shape, both camps are seeking to win back lost voters and, eventually, reclaim their former places atop the right and left aisles of French politics.
One high-ranking member of government from Les Républicains, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, thinks the process is already in motion.
“Over time, Macron’s appeal has skewed significantly more toward right-wing voters,” the minister said. “There’ll unavoidably be a realignment where those voters return and the rest head back to the Socialist Party.”
The biggest challenge facing the Socialists is to topple Mélenchon without alienating his supporters. The center right will somehow need to vanquish the prominent conservatives who switched allegiance to Macron and are now preparing presidential runs of their own, like former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe and current Justice Minister Gérald Darmanin.
“It’s about who folds first,” the aforementioned government official said. “There’s no path for a Philippe or Darmanin without Les Républicains.”
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