Tourism to the United States is projected to dip this year, with international visitor spending expected to fall by $8.5 billion amid tougher trade and immigration policies, according to an Oxford Economics report.
Why It Matters
Since taking office in January, the Trump administration has implemented hardline immigration enforcement actions, with tourists facing increased scrutiny and screening measures, while also enacting sweeping global trade measures that have hindered foreign relations.
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for travel and tourism, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC). The industry contributed around $2.6 trillion to the U.S. economy last year, and analysts and economists have estimated that it will significantly drop this year, with the WTTC forecasting a $12.5 billion reduction.
International tourism touches many parts of the U.S. economy, driving revenue across hospitality, transport, and retail, as well as supporting millions of jobs.
What To Know
In a May 21 research briefing, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, part of Oxford Economics, Aran Ryan said, “We expect a decline of 8.7% in US international arrivals for the year overall.”
It noted that “perceptions of the US impact these [travel] decisions.” He stated, “Factors contributing to the negative outlook include Trump administration posturing and policy announcements, such as ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs across long-standing trade partners,” adding, “Media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories also poses risks.”
The expected dip in tourism forecasts international visitor spending to drop by $8.5 billion. It predicts a 20 percent decrease in visitation from Canada and around a 6 percent decrease from Western Europe.
The report found that there are approximately 11 percent fewer flights booked to the U.S. during the summer season, between May to July, than at the same time last year. The summer high season is typically from June to August.
Other experts and financial firms have estimated even larger costs, with Jukka Laitamaki, professor of international hospitality and tourism at New York University, telling Newsweek in March that the economic impact could be “anywhere between 60 to 120 billion USD in 2025.”
What People Are Saying
Geoff Freeman, president and CEO, US Travel Association, told CNBC on May 28, 2025: “Whether fair or not, a perception is taking hold that more people are being detained, more devices [are] being searched and legal travelers [are] being deported back to their origin country. That creates a great deal of fear.”
Julia Simpson, president and CEO of World Travel & Tourism Council, said in a news release on May 14, 2025: “This is a wake-up call for the U.S. government. The world’s biggest Travel & Tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction, not because of a lack of demand, but because of a failure to act. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign.”
Eva Stewart, Global Managing Partner at GSIQ, previously told Newsweek: “Data shows that global negative impressions of the U.S. as a travel destination have continued to rise since the start of this year. Our estimates suggesting this could wipe out up to 10% of potential global travel demand into America. This is undoing years of great work and hundreds of millions in marketing spend by cities, states, and Brand USA to promote U.S. destinations.”
What Happens Next
Ryan expects a near 9 percent decline in international visitors to the U.S. this year.
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