The GOP’s Big, Beautiful Bind

One of the most spectacular feats Republicans in Congress have managed to achieve is coming up with a spending bill with the potential to grow the deficit and starve children. Speaker Mike Johnson was triumphant last week after the House narrowly passed the One Big Beautiful Bill Act by a vote of 215-214, sending the legislation to the Senate—and then, he surely hopes, to the desk of Donald Trump, who is itching to sign it.

Just as he did with March’s continuing resolution (and averted government shutdown), Trump showed he has control over his caucus, even as his average approval rating has dropped from 52% to 45%, with recent polls showing Americans rejecting his policies. Just two Republicans voted “nay,” while another voted “present,” and a couple missed the vote altogether (apparently because they slept through it.) But that means 215 Republicans voted for this monster bill, including some who are expected to face tough reelection campaigns, like Nebraska’s Don Bacon and Pennsylvania’s Ryan Mackenzie.

Republicans in toss-up districts and swing states are going to have to answer for signing on to a bill that cuts deeply into Medicaid and tightens eligibility for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), more commonly known as food stamps.

“By voting for the One Big Ugly Bill, which would enact the largest cut to Medicaid and food assistance in American history to fund tax breaks for their billionaire donors, the so-called moderate Republicans sealed their political fate,” Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries told me in an email. “These MAGA extremists spent months falsely promising their constituents they would protect their health care. Republicans lied—and they will be held accountable.”

While Trump continues to defy political gravity, such immunity doesn’t necessarily apply to other Republicans; in fact, there’s lots of evidence to support the supposition that Trumpism doesn’t scale—just ask Blake Masters or Kari Lake, Doug Mastriano or Herschel Walker. While Trump claims that “the only thing we’re cutting is waste, fraud, and abuse,” Leighton Ku, director of George Washington University’s Center for Health Policy Research, told Al Jazeera that “the major provisions are not fraud, waste, or error by any means”; rather, they are “things that reflect policy preferences of the Republican architects.”

Republicans across the country will have to respond to voters who, across party lines, oppose cutting Medicaid funding. According to KFF, 65% of Americans have some connection to Medicaid, including more than half “who say either they themselves or a member of their family has been covered by the program.” Plenty of Medicaid recipients live in Trump counties.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projects the bill will grow the deficit by about $3.8 trillion while targeting health care and food assistance. The New York Times reports that, according to CBO analysis, new work requirements “could result in about 3 million SNAP recipients losing benefits.” According to the Century Foundation, more than 25% of children in New Mexico, Louisiana, and West Virginia could be affected by these cuts. Such policies are not only morally reprehensible, but also politically indefensible. As Representative Brendan Boyle, the ranking member of the House Budget Committee, texted me: “This bill will cause the biggest loss of health care in American history—all to fund tax cuts for billionaires.”

Another striking thing about the bill is that it heavily punishes the people who put Trump in office. KFF Health News zeroed in on Gila County, Arizona, which went nearly 70% for Trump in November. “The number of Gila County residents on Medicaid and the related Children’s Health Insurance Program has nearly doubled over the past 15 years, according to data from the Georgetown University Center for Children and Families. Today, almost 4 in 10 residents are on one of the health insurance plans for low- and moderate-income people or those with disabilities.”

While Republicans made inroads with Black and Latino voters in 2024, they could also surrender such gains. According to the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, in extending and expanding upon Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, rate and bracket changes would “create more racial inequality in our tax system by disproportionately favoring white taxpayers at the expense of others.”

Democrats have an opportunity to seize on this “big, beautiful bill” as the political gift that it is and make clear to voters—including Trump’s own—how this hurts the working class.

But let’s not ignore provisions like the one which “would limit the power of federal judges to hold people in contempt, potentially shielding President Trump and members of his administration from the consequences of violating court orders,” as the Times notes. That’s a pretty crazy thing to stick into a tax and spending bill, only adding to how the GOP-led Congress has ceded authority to Trump. Meanwhile, the bill would also roll back Biden-era advancements in clean energy by gutting tax credits granted under the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022.

The Senate will surely make changes to the bill, as even some Republicans appear intent on doing so. Nevertheless, we now have swing state Republicans in the House on record voting for changes in eligibility rules that’ll potentially leave millions without health care and food assistance, with the bill also giving Trump even more unchecked power. If Democrats have their shit together, they will not let voters forget it.