After a dominant 143-101 upset win by the Timberwolves in Minnesota in Game 3, do we suddenly have a real series on our hands in the Western Conference Finals?
Or will the Thunder, who lead 2-1 and remain heavily favored to advance, bounce back in Game 4 and re-establish control of this matchup?
Minnesota struggled with two of the biggest keys to this series in Games 1 and 2, turning the ball over 33 times while shooting just 26-for-90 (28.8 percent) from 3.
But Anthony Edwards and Co. started Game 3 hot and never looked back. The Timberwolves shot 20-for-40 from outside on Saturday night while winning the turnover battle 15-10. They also held Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to 14 points on 4-for-13 FG shooting (while limiting him to just four free-throw attempts, tied for his fewest FTA in 14 playoff games this year).
As you can see below, the Wolves are slight underdogs at home as they look to send the series back to OKC tied at 2-2.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Odds
How to Watch Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4
- Tipoff: 8:30 p.m. ET
- Channel: ESPN
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Series Odds (as of May 26)
- DraftKings: OKC -800; MIN +550
- FanDuel: OKC -950; MIN +640
- bet365: OKC -800; MIN +550
Best Thunder vs. Wolves Game 4 Player Props
Anthony Edwards Over 13.5 Rebs + Assists (-106 at FD) — 1 unit
With Edwards rebounding the way he has throughout this series (he grabbed 9 boards in each of Games 1, 2 and 3), and rediscovering his touch from outside (5-for-8 from 3) in Game 3, the biggest question is not whether to take an Anthony Edwards prop, but which one.
Given how well he’s shot from outside throughout the playoffs, I don’t blame anyone for taking him to knock down a handful of 3-pointers tonight and/or have another 30-point night. To me, though, his rebounds + assists (RA) prop feels like the safest bet.
We gave out Edwards Over 12.5 RA in Game 2. He came through with 9 rebounds and 6 assists in that game, including 6 rebounds and 3 assists (9 RA) in the first quarter alone.
He is coming off another 9-rebound, 6-assist night in Game 3 in just 29:42, as Minnesota pulled its starters late in the third quarter. Anyone who has watched this series to date understands why Edwards is a good bet to grab close to 10 rebounds in every matchup, as he’s hitting the glass as hard as anyone on the court.
That, combined with the Wolves’ supporting cast coming off a hot night from 3, makes Edwards a great bet to once again rack up an impressive RA number tonight.
Remember, in Edwards’ last four games dating back to Game 5 vs. the Warriors in the second round, he’s recorded 19, 12, 15 and 15 RA.
Thunder vs. Wolves Game 4 Pick, Best Bets
I don’t expect the Wolves to shut down SGA, win the turnover battle and shoot 50 percent from 3 in back-to-back games, but I do expect them to start Game 4 off strong.
OKC’s strategy of aggressive defense on the perimeter leaves 3-point shooters open. If Minnesota once again avoids turnovers, that will mean good looks for Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid and Donte DiVincenzo, all of whom are capable shooters.
Picking the Thunder to lose back-to-back games would probably be a knee-jerk overreaction to one off night. But the Wolves (who are 5-1 at home in the playoffs, with all five wins by double-digits) have been such a buzzsaw at home that I like them to once again lead after the first quarter and/or go into halftime on top.
Those are the two best bets I feel safest about tonight.
As for a play on the total or the spread, this strikes me as the first time in this series when both teams will put together a strong offensive performance, so let’s also go with a small play on the over.
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Game 4 Best Bets:
- Timberwolves 1Q ML (+105 at bet365) — 1 unit
- Timberwolves 1H ML (+110 at DK, FD, bet365) — 1 unit
- Over 219 (-110 at FanDuel) — 0.5 units
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