On Sunday, Venezuela plans to hold an election for governor and legislators to represent Essequibo — a sparsely populated, oil-rich territory.
But there’s one problem. Essequibo is internationally recognized as part of neighboring Guyana, not Venezuela.
Most countries and the 125,000 people who live in Essequibo all agree: It belongs to Guyana, a country of about 800,000, not Venezuela, a nation of roughly 28 million.
In staging legislative and regional elections on Sunday, including in Essequibo, Venezuela’s autocratic president, Nicolás Maduro, analysts say, is seeking to legitimize his rule abroad and also within his deeply dissatisfied nation, where the military’s loyalty is reportedly fraying.
Last year Mr. Maduro declared victory in a presidential election but did not provide any evidence to support his claim. Instead, tallies collected by election monitors showed that his opponent had won in a landslide. Many countries, including the United States, did not recognize Mr. Maduro as the winner.
Of particular concern to Venezuela’s government, according to analysts, were vote counts the opposition collected from military barracks showing that a large portion of the armed forces voted against Mr. Maduro.
Mr. Maduro is using the vote in Essequibo to stir nationalistic sentiment and build support for his government, said Benigno Alarcón, the director of a research center at Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas, which conducts voter surveys.
Claims to the Essequibo region are deeply ingrained among many Venezuelans who believe the land was historically theirs under Spanish colonial rule and do not consider a 19th-century agreement that ceded the area to Guyana as legitimate.
The Essequibo election “is a way of trying to unify the people and especially the armed forces against a common enemy,” Mr. Alarcón said.
But most people who live in Essequibo speak English, identify culturally as Guyanese and say they want to remain part of Guyana — the only country most have ever known. Even under Spanish rule it was considered a remote outpost. Across Guyana, shops and cars are plastered with stickers proclaiming the country’s ownership of Essequibo.
In recent years, Mr. Maduro has ramped up claims to the region, which comprises about two-thirds of Guyana and includes enormous offshore oil blocks where Exxon Mobil is expanding production.
In 2023, Mr. Maduro reignited the long-running dispute by holding a referendum asking voters whether his government should pursue its claim to Essequibo. The vote was seen as an effort to help divert attention from Venezuela’s political and economic crises.
The country’s electoral authority said that 95 percent of voters had approved of making the claim, but observers said that turnout was actually low.
Now Mr. Maduro is again stoking a geopolitical crisis as a way to shift the domestic conversation, analysts said.
While most Venezuelans favor taking back the Essequibo, Mr. Alarcón said their trust in the government’s intentions and capacity to do so was low.
“It is an issue that has been losing connection with the people, because a lot of time has passed,” he said. “We have been discussing this for 100 years. Many people already feel that this is a very difficult issue to reverse.”
On Election Day, Venezuelans along the border region with Guyana will choose among four candidates for governor, including the governing party’s candidate, Neil Villamizar, a Navy admiral. Voters will also select eight legislative representatives from the region.
It is unclear exactly how Venezuela plans to administer elections in a territory governed by a different country, and Venezuela’s electoral authority has not provided clear information.
“It doesn’t make any sense,” Mr. Alarcón said.
Guyana’s national security minister, Robeson Benn, has said that border security was tightened and that the authorities would arrest any Guyanese person supporting the election.
The modern-day dispute over the Essequibo dates back to 1899, when a Paris tribunal determined the internationally recognized border. But many Venezuelans say the decision was null and void, because it involved a secret deal that Venezuela did not participate in.
Longstanding tensions eased under former President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, who largely abandoned the issue.
But that was before an oil boom turned Guyana, long one of South America’s poorest countries, into a global energy powerhouse and made its economy one of the fastest growing in the world.
By contrast, Venezuela, which holds the world’s largest oil reserves, was once buoyed by a thriving oil sector. But years of U.S. sanctions, mismanagement and infrastructural decay have left it in ruins. Unlike Mr. Chávez, Mr. Maduro must contend with a collapsed economy and widespread public discontent.
In 2020, the dispute between the two countries over Essequibo was taken up by the United Nations’ top court, the International Court of Justice, where it is still pending. This month, the court ordered Venezuela to refrain from electing officials to oversee the area. But Mr. Maduro has rejected the court’s jurisdiction over the issue.
In recent months, Guyana has reported several armed attacks against its soldiers along the Venezuelan border and denounced what it called an illegal incursion by a Venezuelan naval vessel into disputed waters where Exxon Mobil is developing a vast offshore oil field.
Venezuela’s government has denied those reports and accused the opposition of conspiring with the United States and Guyana to topple the Maduro government.
As tensions mount, Guyana has ramped up military ties with the United States, which has a strong interest in protecting Exxon Mobil’s multibillion-dollar investments in Guyana’s oil reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said this month at a news conference in Georgetown, Guyana’s capital, where he stood alongside Guyanese President Irfaan Ali, that there would be “consequences” if Venezuela took military action against its neighbor.
“It would be a very bad day for the Venezuelan regime if they were ever to attack Guyana or attack Exxon Mobil,” Mr. Rubio said.
Yet even Venezuela’s opposition has seized on the territorial claims. María Corina Machado, the most prominent opposition leader, visited the area by canoe in 2013 to advance Venezuela’s claim.
It is possible that Mr. Maduro will try to negotiate some type of agreement with Guyana, said Phil Gunson, an analyst with International Crisis Group who has been based in Venezuela for more than two decades.
“It may be that what Maduro is really trying to do is to harass the Guyanese so much that they eventually decide to buy him off with some portion of the oil revenues or a portion of territory,” he said. “And maybe Venezuela can then declare victory and the whole thing will calm down.”
In Guyana last Sunday, every boat, vehicle, home, building and fence will be plastered with Guyanese flags said Vilma De Silva, an elected official in Essequibo. Venezuela is holding its election one day before Guyana’s Independence Day.
“Our region is high on the alert,” she said “We’re here and we’re not giving up any mountain. We’re not giving up any tree. We’re not giving up any river that belongs to the Essequibo. It’s ours.”
Genevieve Glatsky is a reporter for The Times, based in Bogotá, Colombia.
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