Donald Trump’s itinerary for his recent trip to the Middle East featured a glaring omission. The president visited Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar, but not Israel, ostensibly America’s main ally in the region. When asked about the snub, he insisted that it wasn’t a snub at all: “This is good for Israel,” Trump said, referring to the alliances he’d be strengthening with countries that were, notably, not named Israel.
By passing over the country, Trump gave a clear signal that Israel’s concerns are not his top priority in the Middle East, and perhaps haven’t been for some time. Judging by his administration’s approach to the region, this shouldn’t come as a surprise. Trump has pursued policies that have repeatedly undermined the agenda of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—and show that divisions between the United States and Israel are widening.
Most Israelis welcomed Trump’s reelection: Almost two-thirds of them believed he would support their interests more than Kamala Harris would, and with good reason. In his first term, he’d moved the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, torn up America’s nuclear deal with Iran, recognized Israelis’ annexation of the Golan Heights, and helped normalize their relations with several Arab countries. Unlike Harris, their thinking went, Trump wouldn’t compromise with Iran or make them yield to Hamas. Four months into his administration, their faith is being tested.
Let’s start with Iran. For weeks, the U.S. has been negotiating with Israel’s archenemy over its nuclear program, raising the possibility that the Trump administration might relieve sanctions and soften its stance toward the regime. A deal isn’t inevitable, but the prospect alone is anathema to Netanyahu, who detested America’s previous nuclear agreement and has made opposition to Iran his signature foreign-policy mission.
Gaza, too, has become a source of disagreement, particularly this month, as Israel has ramped up missile strikes on the region. The renewed offensive not only disrupts Trump’s (ridiculous) plan to “take over” the region and rebuild it as the “Riviera of the Middle East”; it also highlights his failure to end the conflict, which he’d promised to do in short order. Netanyahu wants Hamas to be “totally defeated,” a goal he can’t achieve without substantially prolonging the war. But earlier this month, Trump called for a cease-fire, prompting fears in Israel that American support for its military campaign might not last. In another worrisome sign for Israel, the Trump administration recently negotiated the release of an Israeli American dual citizen, Edan Alexander, without the country’s involvement. This bolstered Netanyahu’s critics, who say he hasn’t done enough to free the remaining several dozen Israeli hostages, more than 20 of whom are believed to be alive.
Syria is another sore subject for Israel. During his trip to Saudi Arabia, Trump met with Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s new head of state—the first time a U.S. president has met with a leader from the country in 25 years. Trump announced that he was lifting U.S. sanctions and called al-Sharaa “attractive” and “pretty amazing.” Those probably aren’t the words Netanyahu would use. Israel sees al-Sharaa as a threat, not least because of his former ties to al-Qaeda. In hopes of weakening his new regime, Israel has bombed Syria, built military bases along their shared border, and supported the Syrian Druze opposition. Israeli officials had asked the Trump administration to keep sanctions in place. Trump didn’t listen.
The United States is also defying Israel’s interests in Yemen. After the October 7 massacre, the Houthis in Yemen began attacking American naval vessels and conducting missile strikes on Israel in solidarity with Hamas. The U.S. responded by attacking the Houthis, which Israel applauded. Then, earlier this month, the Trump administration negotiated a cease-fire with the Houthis. Israel was pointedly excluded from the deal and left to fend for itself: The agreement was announced only two days after a Houthi missile struck the country’s main airport, and additional strikes on Israel have followed the cease-fire.
More broadly—and perhaps most important in the long term—the Trump administration is less inclined to take on the assertive role that America has traditionally played in the Middle East, and which Israel has come to depend on. Under President Joe Biden, the U.S. maintained a sizable military presence in the region and provided enormous support for Israel’s campaign in Gaza, even as his administration pushed Israel to negotiate a cease-fire and work with moderate Palestinians. Trump, by contrast, is withdrawing some troops from Syria and has staffed his Cabinet with officials who share his skepticism of foreign intervention. America’s leadership in the Middle East has shaped the region in ways that have massively benefited Israel: deterring and coercing Iran, neutralizing the Islamic State and other terrorists, and conciliating moderate Arab states such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The Trump administration won’t abandon those roles, but it is already pulling back from some of them.
None of this means, however, that the U.S.-Israel alliance is in crisis. Disagreements will continue to emerge, but Israelis have reason to believe that America’s support will generally remain strong. Most of Trump’s advisers still see themselves as backers of Israel, as do most congressional Republicans. Despite fears from some Israelis, Trump seems unlikely to withdraw support from their military operations in Gaza, in part because he has expressed so little concern for the humanitarian crisis afflicting Palestinians. And the president has continued to support militant Israeli settlers in the West Bank, and appointed an ambassador, Mike Huckabee, who has previously backed Israel’s campaign to annex the region. (Ironically, some of this support has made Netanyahu’s job harder by emboldening the far right of his coalition, whose calls for sweeping policy changes are getting more difficult for him to ignore.)
Nevertheless, Israel’s situation has fundamentally changed compared with only a few years ago. Relative to previous presidents, Trump is much more willing to ignore the country’s interests and pursue goals that openly subvert them. Israel isn’t likely to lose America as an ally. But that ally could soon make the Middle East look a lot more threatening.
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