There’s a high chance that the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season could form within the next week, according to a forecast map from the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Newsweek has reached out to the NHC by email for comment.
Why It Matters
When it comes to hurricanes, U.S. forecasts often focus on the Atlantic hurricane season, given storms in this region can frequently impact coastal states. However, Pacific hurricanes and tropical storms also can pose a risk.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season started on May 15, two weeks sooner than the Central Pacific and Atlantic hurricane seasons, which begin June 1. Each hurricane season runs through November 30.
What To Know
NHC experts are monitoring an area of disturbance that could strengthen into a tropical storm within the next seven days. Should it form, it will be the first tropical storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season.
As of Friday afternoon, there were no tropical depressions, tropical storms or hurricanes anywhere in the Atlantic or Pacific oceans. However, a disturbance is stirring off the southern coast of Mexico, according to NHC’s forecast page.
“An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico,” the forecast said. “Conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while moving westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”
There’s a near zero percent chance that a tropical depression will form in the next 48 hours. However, there’s a high chance at 70 percent that one will form within the next seven days.
A report from AccuWeather said although there is no tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific, showers and thunderstorms are “beginning to show signs of organization.”
AccuWeather meteorologists are anticipating 14 to 18 tropical storms and seven to 10 hurricanes for the Eastern Pacific this season. An average season produces 15 tropical storms and four hurricanes, AccuWeather reported.
Meteorologists also are anticipating an active season for the Atlantic Ocean. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast on Thursday, which showed that experts forecast an above-average season with 13 to 19 named storms, consisting of six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.
What People Are Saying
AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva said in a report: “Signs continue to point toward some slow tropical development off the Pacific coast of Central America and south of the southwestern coast of Mexico prior to the end of the month. At this time, we believe a tropical feature may organize sometime from May 26 to May 30, especially the latter part of that period.”
Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm, in a press release about the Atlantic hurricane season: “As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities. NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”
What Happens Next?
Regular updates will be posted on the NHC webpage and social media pages regarding the disturbance south of Mexico.
On average, the first tropical system in the Eastern Pacific doesn’t form until June 10, putting the developing disturbance ahead of schedule should it form next week.
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