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On the surface, newly-released data from the Census Bureau looks to be good news for big cities. In the wake of the Covid panic that drove residents to the suburbs and beyond, city populations generally rebounded. “Cities of all sizes grew on average from 2023 to 2024,” the Bureau reported. “Cities of all sizes, in all regions, showed faster growth and larger gains”.
The number – 94 percent of cities showing population growth – is impressive, overall. But a closer look tells another story – about some of the largest “blue” state cities, governed by Democratic mayors. New York, Los Angeles, Chicago and Philadelphia continue to have lower populations than in 2020. New York City has had the largest drop – from 8.805 million to 8.478 million, or 3.7 percent. Philadelphia’s population has fallen by 1.9 percent; Chicago’s by 1 percent, and LA’s by .5 percent.
An even slightly-closer look at these cities’ quality of life and affordability – factors that are the function of the effectiveness of their local governments – offers explanations for the trend.
Housing costs in New York, according to the national tracking service RentCafe, are 21.8 percent higher than the national average – despite the fact that the city has more price-regulated and public housing than any other. Low turnover rates in the nearly 1 million rent-stabilized apartments help drive up the price of the remaining market-rate housing, as city residents play a costly game of housing musical chairs, with those not able to get apartments priced artificially low forced to pay more. Where is housing cheaper? Look to Houston, which has gained 3.9 percent in population. Its housing costs are the mirror image of New York City’s – 21 percent lower than the national average. Not surprisingly, Houston’s population, per the Census, is 3.9 percent higher than it was in 2020.
To explain Chicago’s population loss, look to its crime rate. The Windy City last year led the nation in murders – 653 – almost twice the number of Baltimore, the city with the second-highest number. Instances of gang violence have spread from the low-income South Side to the “miracle mile” of downtown’s Michigan Avenue. Yet for the privilege of being subjected to high crime, Chicagoans have paid more and more – and more – in property taxes. As the civic group Chicago Federation reports, between 2014 and 2024, Chicago increased its property taxes by $2.7 billion, or 53.3 percent, compared to an inflation rate of 35 percent. The separate property tax levied by the Chicago Public School (CPS) district, increased $1.4 billion, from $2.4 to $3.8 billion. Yet, according to the Illinois Policy Institute, “in spring 2024, 30.5% of CPS students in third through eighth grade met proficiency standards in reading and 18.3% were proficient in math.” A 2022 report found that, in 55 Chicago public schools, zero percent of students were proficient in either.
Los Angeles, another population loser, stands out on another measure: street homelessness, as exemplified by the tent encampments in its Skid Row area. The city’s 71,000 homeless constitute, per the Brookings Institution, 670 for every 100,000 residents. Even more notably, 70 percent of LA’s homeless, some 472 per 100K are “unsheltered”, higher than any major city except San Jose—which is also among the few cities with lower populations than in 2020. It’s no wonder that California Governor Gavin Newsom, with his eye on higher office, has moved to ban street encampments in the state.
The other population-losing cities have their own versions of the same stories. Philadelphia ranks among the homelessness leaders, with 18 percent of the homeless among the “unsheltered”, the highest number among cities in the Northeast. The unsheltered homeless rate in San Jose, down 1.6 percent in population, stands at 77 percent, the nation’s highest.
It’s fair to argue that the combination of mild weather and air-conditioning, over the long term, has lured Americans from the Northeast and Midwest to the Sunbelt. But the new Census data shines a light on what’s happening right now, as cities even in California as well as the Rust Belt and the Northeast, fail to recover their pre-Covid population levels. It’s hard to avoid the conclusion that ineffective governance has played a role; crime and homelessness, high tax levels and poor-performing public schools are not magnets to draw back former residents or draw in new ones. The fact that all the population-losing cities are run by Democratic mayors helped Donald Trump win the popular vote; even in New York City he ran better than he had in 2020.
Cities can be the engines of economic innovation and prosperity. But not if local government fails to provide effective essential services. Americans have given a negative Census report card on just those services, delivered to some of our largest cities.
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