The latest United States intelligence assessment indicates that nuclear-armed North Korea has strengthened its capabilities to conduct prolonged operations in defense of its territory.
Newsweek has contacted the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and the North Korean Embassy in China for comment via website contact form and email, respectively.
Why It Matters
The U.S. and North Korea engaged in the Korean War with their respective allies—South Korea, China and the Soviet Union. Although an armistice was reached to halt hostilities, the Korean Peninsula technically remains in a state of war as no peace treaty was concluded.
U.S. forces have remained in South Korea with more than 28,500 military personnel to deter North Korea’s provocations and attacks. Meanwhile, North Korea has accused the U.S. and South Korea of rehearsing “preemptive attacks” on the country through joint military drills.
The assessment was prepared by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency, a support agency of the Pentagon. Last week, it also warned in a separate report that North Korea’s nuclear missiles could overwhelm the defense system protecting the U.S. homeland within a decade.
What To Know
Ankit Panda, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank, wrote on social media on Tuesday that the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency had revised its assessment of North Korea’s capabilities to conduct territorial defense operations.
The agency’s latest assessment—presented to the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations earlier this month—said the North Korean army “almost certainly is capable of mounting a prolonged defense” of the country’s territory.
Been tracking DIA assessments of North Korea for a while and this jumps out:2025 ATA (armedservices.house.gov/uploadedfile…): “almost certainly capable of mounting a prolonged defense”
2021 (www.dia.mil/Portals/110/…): KPA at 0.5x resources for sustaining defensive combat operations.[image or embed]— Ankit Panda (@nktpnd.bsky.social) May 20, 2025 at 11:24 PM
While North Korea is in its “strongest strategic position in decades,” capable of threatening American forces and allies in Northeast Asia, its “rapidly aging” conventional forces face what the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency called “resource constraints” in modernization.
In its 2021 report on North Korea’s military power, the agency assessed that Pyongyang might have sufficient supplies across all categories to sustain defensive operations for “two to three months” rather than the six months required under its doctrinal planning.
North Korea would seek to “maximize its defensive advantages”—including inhospitable terrain and widespread use of underground facilities—to increase the cost of seizing and holding its territory should deterrence against U.S. military intervention fail, the report said.
The reasons behind the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency’s revision of its assessment of North Korea’s defensive capabilities remain unclear. The latest assessment also said North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was “increasingly confident” in the security of his regime.
Last month, U.S. and South Korean special operations forces conducted a training exercise to enhance their “rapid infiltration capabilities,” which are considered essential for executing “decapitation” missions against North Korea’s leadership in the event of renewed hostilities.
What People Are Saying
Ankit Panda, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on Bluesky: “There seems to have been a meaningful shift in North Korea’s conventional readiness for territorial defense. Not inconsistent with what we’ve seen in open sources (including [North Korean] state media).”
The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in its 2025 Worldwide Threat Assessment report: “North Korea remains one of the most militarized nations in the world with more than 1 million active duty personnel and more than 7 million reserve and paramilitary personnel.”
What Happens Next
While North Korea continues to enhance its defensive capabilities, it is also advancing its military posture to threaten the U.S. homeland, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said.
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