Vladimir Putin is reportedly determined to press on with his war in Ukraine, despite Donald Trump‘s efforts to broker a peace deal. But experts tell Newsweek the long-term costs to Russia are serious and mounting.
The Russian president has little interest in pursuing a peace deal, convinced he has a “strong hand” in negotiations and that his military can fully seize control of Ukraine’s four annexed regions by the end of the year, according to Bloomberg.
While President Donald Trump calls on both sides to “get this war ended”, a person familiar with Putin’s thinking told the publication that the Kremlin is unlikely to offer any meaningful concessions when the two leaders speak by phone on Monday.
Newsweek has contacted the Kremlin for comment by email.
Why It Matters
Both Putin and Trump were absent from bilateral peace talks in Turkey on the war in Ukraine last week, dimming hopes for a breakthrough in resolving the conflict. Observers now look to Monday’s call between the U.S. president and the Russian leader as a potential turning point for the stalled negotiations.
What To Know
Former VP Mike Pence: “Vladimir Putin doesn’t want peace; he wants Ukraine. And the fact that we are now nearly two months of following a ceasefire agreement that Ukraine has agreed to and Russia continues to delay and give excuses confirms that point.” pic.twitter.com/YmKBOzSxFD
— Republicans for Ukraine (@GOP4Ukraine) May 5, 2025
While Trump has said Russia “doesn’t have the cards” in the conflict, an unnamed Bloomberg source revealed Putin is confident his forces can take full control of four regions claimed by Russia— the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
Russia has demanded Ukraine recognize the regions as Russian in order to halt the conflict, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has refused to cede territory to Russia to bring an end to the war.
Putin “believes he has a strong hand” ahead of his phone call with Trump on Monday, the publication reported.
Mark Galeotti, senior associate fellow with the Royal United Services Institute, told Newsweek that the lack of particular urgency Putin is showing toward negotiations, and his failure to accept a “very generous” deal from Trump, “does suggest he genuinely believes that he can afford to keep fighting.”
He was referring to a reported Washington proposal at the outset of negotiations that was seen as offering significant concessions to Russia.
According to Bloomberg, there’s a growing sense that Trump’s efforts to broker a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia are reaching a critical juncture. European officials remain uncertain whether Trump will escalate pressure on Putin, or shift his focus elsewhere if he fails to end the conflict.
Frustration is also building in Washington. Some U.S. senators have also voiced out after no votes were scheduled on bills introduced six weeks ago that sought to ramp up pressure on Russia to take peace negotiations seriously.
Trump has also threatened to withdraw from diplomatic efforts to end the war, though the warning has so far had little impact.
Russia Preparing Summer Offensive
Meanwhile, Russia is making steady gains in Ukraine, and Putin is preparing a summer offensive that could be the deadliest of the war so far, an expert has assessed.
Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at Ukrainian NGO “Come Back Alive”, said Russia’s unfolding summer campaigning season in Ukraine promises to be “among the bloodiest of the entire war.”
“In the coming months, Russia is hoping to build on more than a year of gradual advances to achieve breakthroughs on the eastern front,” Bielieskov said in commentary for the Atlantic Council published on May 8.
According to Galeotti, while Russia “may maintain its slow and bloody advance, the chances that it will be able to capture all the territories it has claimed for itself appear very low, especially when it comes to a major city such as Kherson.”
“If this really is Putin’s thinking, then it suggests that he is wilfully ignoring the real challenges facing Russia in the coming months, from economic stagnation to the exhaustion of Soviet-era stocks of tanks and guns,” said Galeotti, highlighting what he views as a dangerous miscalculation by the Kremlin.
“Russia is able to continue this war, not indefinitely but for years, yet the long-term costs to the country, in terms of lives, economic scarring and social pressure, are serious and mounting,” he added.
Putin ‘Delusional’ About War Prospects
Konstantin Sonin, a Russian-born political economist from the University of Chicago, said the Bloomberg report shows Putin is “still delusional about the prospects of war.”
Sonin, a professor at the university’s Harris School of Public Policy, pointed to Russia’s claimed advances in Ukraine since the war began in February 2022.
“In three years of war, Russian troops have been able to take one large city (Mariupol) in the first months of the invasion,” Sonin told Newsweek. “All the (smaller) cities and towns taken over in the last two years were basically razed to the ground.”
While incremental gains may still be possible for Russia, Sonin warned that any future advances will come at a huge cost.
“Perhaps the Russian army could gain some more ground going forward, at the enormous cost in terms of life and material, but it will not be much in terms of ‘victory’ that Putin dreams about,” he said.
“In short, Putin started this war based on unreasonable assumptions about the Ukrainian state and military and Western attitude. Now, he continues the war based on unreasonable assumptions,” Sonin said.
Sonin stressed that for Ukraine, surrendering weapons or Western support is out of the question.
“For Ukraine, what is really non negotiable is any kind of disarmament or termination of Western support—as any peace on these conditions will lead to another attack very soon. For Putin, if Ukraine is not disarmed (and it’s far more advanced, military, than 3 years ago), the war is lost. Thus, he will not stop, even without any prospects to achieve a breakthrough,” he added.
What People Are Saying
Sergei Markov, a political consultant with close ties to the Kremlin, told Bloomberg: “Trump wants Putin to agree to a truce but he absolutely doesn’t want to. But Putin isn’t interested in a collapse of the talks. He’s trying to maneuver so that these negotiations continue alongside the military offensive.”
Viktor Kovalenko, a former Ukrainian soldier and journalist, told Newsweek on Monday: “Putin has an upper hand in negotiations. First, his military gained much combat experience in the past three years and can continue making land grabs, which is crucial. Plus, the Russian economy indeed switched to ‘war mode,’ and the arms industry is now massively manufacturing large quantities of drones, missiles, and bombs to bombard Ukraine into oblivion. Moreover, Russia has more men than Ukraine and North Korea to the rescue, which means a greater mobilization reserve for the Kremlin to continue the war of attrition.
“I don’t expect the Putin-Trump phone call to result in something significant like a peace deal and the end of the war because it is not in Putin’s interests right now. He considers truce and negotiations as an extension of the war, just another way to defeat the victim.
“However, Putin can agree on a 30-day ceasefire to ‘please Trump’ and postpone sever U.S. and European sanctions for one more month. Yet there is no hope that a truce would result in fruitful Russian and Ukrainian negotiations and mutual compromises.”
Former Vice President Mike Pence told CNN this month: “If the last three years teaches us anything, it’s that Vladimir Putin doesn’t want peace; he wants Ukraine. And the fact that we are now nearly two months of following a ceasefire agreement that Ukraine has agreed to and Russia continues to delay and give excuses confirms that point.
“The wavering support the administration has shown over the last few months, I believe, has only emboldened Russia.”
What Happens Next
Putin and Trump will speak by phone on Monday, and Trump has floated the possibility of meeting the Russian leader in person later this month. However, no firm date has been set.
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