The only certainty around Trump’s tariffs for consumers and retailers is more uncertainty

Welcome back to our Sunday edition, where we round up some of our top stories and take you inside our newsroom. If you’re lucky enough to receive a lump sum of cash, it might be tempting to take the trip that’s been on your bucket list. But if you want to take the responsible route, BI broke down how to manage a windfall that includes age, risk factors, and financial goals.

On the agenda today:

• Why Microsoft is flattening its management layers.
• HBO Max is mocking itself with memes as it rebrands … again.
• The Seed 100: Here are the best early-stage investors of 2025.
• Goldman Sachs is leaning into AI. Here’s what we know about five of its tools.

But first: Let’s talk tariffs.

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This week’s dispatch

‘A lose-lose situation’

There are a few ways to think about President Donald Trump’s trade deal with China.

For one, Wall Street loves it. Stocks recovered their “Liberation Day” losses. Fears of an imminent recession, at least viewed through the lens of the betting markets, have already started to subside.

But the real-world ripple effects of the current tariff situation are far less clear-cut. Friday’s downbeat consumer sentiment data, the second-worst reading on record, showed just how gloomy people feel right now.

Consider how a range of businesses — big and small — reacted in the aftermath of the 90-day pause on higher tariffs with China.

• Retail titan Walmart said it will raise prices in light of Trump’s tariffs. John David Rainey, Walmart’s chief financial officer, told CNBC, “the magnitude of these increases is more than any retailer can absorb.”

• Toy maker Hasbro abruptly reversed course on its decision to raise prices and halt some production following Monday’s deal, but the future isn’t clear. Gina Goetter, Hasbro’s chief financial officer, said at a conference, “every day is a new adventure.”

• And for small businesses, planning ahead during this rapidly changing global landscape is proving to be particularly difficult.

One small-business owner quantified the tariff impact. Jamey Stegmaier told BI he worries they could put his board game company, Stonemaier Games, out of business.

If the full 145% tariffs had remained in effect, he’d need to raise the price of his Wingspan game, which sells for $65, to close to $200.

“No one would buy it,” he said.

He’d love to move production to the US to avoid tariffs. However, the US doesn’t have the infrastructure or expertise he said he needs.

The current US-China trade agreement also isn’t a complete relief. The 30% tariffs are “still painful,” Stegmaier added.

Ultimately, the unpredictability surrounding Trump’s tariff policy means customers could start seeing higher prices across the board.

“There’s no math that makes it work,” Stegmaier said. “There’s no silver lining. It’s a lose-lose-lose situation for everyone involved.”

Microsoft’s bid to flatten management

Microsoft is axing 6,000 jobs to increase “span of control,” or the number of employees reporting to each manager. The cuts come as the tech giant reduces costs and invests heavily in AI.

The half-dozen Microsoft insiders whom BI spoke to about the cuts see the effort as a good thing.

Microsoft isn’t the only company to do so.

Also read:

• Internal Microsoft memo reveals plans for a new “Tenant Copilot” and an “Agent Factory” concept

Max is roasting its own rebrand

The streamer is tacking “HBO” back onto its name after abandoning it in 2023. That may seem a bit ridiculous, and Max is well aware. Instead of being laughed at, Max is opting to laugh with the internet.

The social team at Warner Bros. Discovery cooked up a host of memes for the occasion. BI’s Dan Whateley broke down why silliness, rather than sincerity, could be the right move.

Need a good laugh?

Also read:

• Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos explains why he thinks the HBO Max rebrand “makes sense”
• Max is going to be HBO Max. Again. Here’s what that really means.
• Here’s why HBO Max has rebranded so many times

The top 100 early-stage investors of 2025

Seed-stage investors reach for their checkbooks after hearing merely the kernel of an idea. They may have the hardest job in VC.

Back for its fifth year, BI’s Seed 100 list uses Termina’s data analysis to identify and honor these dealmakers. Their interests span tech, from defense to consumer.

Some names may sound familiar.

Also read:

• The Seed 40: The best women early-stage investors of 2025

Five tools in Goldman’s AI arsenal

The bank’s tech chief once said AI would be as ubiquitous as email, with 100% of the workforce relying on it. With Goldman Sachs’ up-and-coming slate of AI tools, the bank appears to be on track.

BI kept tabs on the rollout of these resources, ranging from an AI assistant to a translation tool.

How to make an investment banker’s job easier.

This week’s quote:

“These days Gates looks like a sage compared to Musk and compared to the administration.“

— Michael Morris, a professor at the Columbia Business School, on both Elon Musk’s and Bill Gates’ approach to efficiency.

More of this week’s top reads:

• How to get a job in the booming business of secondaries.
• We found 200 “podcasts” peddling opioids. Now Spotify is taking them down.
• Meet the CEOs behind YouTube’s biggest stars.
• Please, kids: Do not set your Chromebook on fire.
• Hulk Hogan’s beer brand is eyeing a takeover of the Hooters name.
• Why Citadel Securities is training its developers on a coding language that hasn’t even been released yet.
• Meta’s Llama has reached a turning point with developers as delays and disappointment mount.
• Brevan Howard hires longtime JPMorgan dealmaker Carlos Hernandez as its first executive chair.

• In a chilly funding market, a VC explains why legal tech is “as hot as you can humanly imagine.”

  The BI Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Grace Lett, editor, in Chicago. Amanda Yen, associate editor, in New York. Lisa Ryan, executive editor, in New York. Elizabeth Casolo, fellow, in Chicago.

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