There’s more to Donald Trump’s Middle East trip than billion-dollar contracts, parades of camels and a storm back home over Qatar’s offer to give the president a new Air Force One.
A tour narrowly billed by the White House as a chance for Trump to show he’s a master dealmaker is jumbling the region’s geopolitical jigsaw puzzle.
Wherever he goes, Trump’s brings disruption that can forge possibilities. And he takes risks – for instance, his decision on this trip to lift sanctions on Syria to give a war-ravaged nation a second chance.
But the move revives a perennial question about Trump’s entire foreign and trade policy. Can he apply himself sufficiently to reach genuine breakthroughs from openings he creates?
The White House’s obsession with lionizing Trump means his most significant initiatives are often swamped by hype.
So a deal for Qatar to buy Boeing jets worth tens of billions of dollars got more attention back home Wednesday than his encounter in Riyadh with Syrian leader Ahmed al-Sharaa. The historic first meeting between US and Syrian leaders in 25 years, could be the signature initiative of Trump’s tour.
Before he overthrew the murderous dictator Bashar al-Assad, al-Sharaa was a rebel leader who pledged allegiance to al Qaeda and had a $10 million US bounty on his head. Yet Trump sat with him and lifted US sanctions on his civil war-wracked country, hoping to give it a chance to unify and rescue civilians facing severe hunger.
Trump’s regional diplomatic ambitions are expanding
Trump’s geopolitical shake-up doesn’t end in Syria. He’s used the trip to build new pressure on Iran to agree to restrictions on its nuclear program – warning of military action if it refuses but clearly trying to head off the dire prospect of a new Middle East war.
His journey has also highlighted growing daylight with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who was seen as an ideological soulmate of the 47th president but who is increasingly an object of Trump’s frustration.
Behind the scenes, Trump’s team has been talking with Qatari and Saudi officials about how to alleviate a humanitarian crisis in Gaza caused by Israel’s blockade and an onslaught that has killed tens of thousands of civilians. Netanyahu’s response has been to declare he has “no choice” but to keep fighting, and he targeted the Hamas leader who’d be needed for any peace talks, in a strike on a hospital.
There’s no sense that the US alliance with Israel is at risk. But gaps between Trump and Netanyahu have also opened over a US pact to halt rocket attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen that did not include Israel; Trump’s bypassing of the Israelis in a deal this week to free the last living American hostage in Gaza; and on the Syria sanctions decision.
Trump was not solely focused on the Middle East in recent days. He’d also hoped to fly to Turkey for a startling photo-op with Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine that would have validated his thus far unsuccessful attempt to end their war. Neither rival leader is likely to show up to Thursday’s talks, prompting Trump to abandon his plans for an unexpected side trip and casting further doubt on his peace initiative.
Trump’s big Syria gamble
Trump’s decision to lift sanctions on Syria represents one of the biggest foreign policy gambles so far in his second term.
Details of the intricate diplomacy that must have led up to this decision have not yet been revealed. But the move reflects an understanding that Syria, devastated by years of civil war, is at a turning point, occupies a vital place on the map of the region and has the potential to tip into greater chaos if it deteriorates further.
The president told reporters that he believed that al-Sharaa has “got a real shot at holding it together.” Officials said later that Trump wants Syria to eventually recognize Israel. This would represent an extraordinary transformation in a region wracked by hate.
Firas Maksad, director of outreach at the Middle East Institute, told CNN’s Becky Anderson that the Syria move was a significant win for Trump on a trip dominated by economic concerns. “I think Trump has been very careful and very, I would say, keen on unlocking geopolitical successes, too,” Maksad said. “Whatever happens in Syria doesn’t stay in Syria.”
The president’s move mirrors a willingness of some European and Middle Eastern leaders to shelve distaste for al-Sharaa’s past activity in the hope he can stop a return to civil war.
Unusually, a Trump policy decision is winning praise even among some longtime critics. “I think it’s a good move,” Leon Panetta, a former CIA director and US defense secretary, told “CNN News Central” on Wednesday. “I think that (Trump) is right because this individual was able to lead that rebellion, was able to depose Assad and, as far as I can see, is working to try to stabilize a difficult challenge with regards to Syria.”
Trump’s decision to lift sanctions came at the urging of Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which both want to avoid unrest in Syria spreading. There is also a desire in Riyadh, Washington and Doha to prevent a return of outside powers to Syria, which has endured decades of foreign interference from states including Iran, Russia, Turkey and Israel.
But Trump is taking a risk.
While al-Sharaa is seen outside the country as Syria’s best hope for stability, concern is growing that his government is not protecting religious and ethnic minorities. In Washington, meanwhile, senior members of Congress will want assurances that he’s driving out ISIS elements before they agree to lift sanctions enshrined in law that the president cannot waive on his own.
“To seize the moment, it will be important for the President’s decision to be swiftly implemented and for the Syrian government to move quickly to address U.S. national security concerns,” Sens. Jim Risch and Jeanne Shaheen, the Republican chairman and the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a statement. “This will help Syria remain on the path to freedom from the malign influence of Iran and Russia, from China’s attempt to gain an economic foothold in the Middle East, and from the resurgence of ISIS.”
South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, a Trump ally, struck a note of caution. “I am very inclined to support sanctions relief for Syria under the right conditions,” Graham said in a statement released from Turkey. “However, we must remember that the current leadership in Syria achieved its position through force of arms, not through the will of its people.”
Graham noted that Israel was especially concerned by the decision to lift sanctions on Syria and argued that the US must work together with allies to coordinate the new opening. “This newly formed government in Syria may be a good investment and could be the pathway to unifying Syria, making it a stable part of the region. However, there is a lot that must be learned before making that determination,” Graham said. “A stable Syria would be a game changer for the region, but given its past, their progress must be evaluated closely.”
‘Good luck, Syria’
If Trump is to shepherd Syria toward stability, he’ll need to use the power of the United States to convene like-minded nations. This kind of work with allies is hardly a hallmark of this White House. And it’s another challenge for a stretched foreign policy team hampered by chaotic staffing decisions and the inexperience of some key players – for instance, Trump’s envoy for all occasions Steve Witkoff.
Trump already seemed to be laying the groundwork for the laying of blame, should his decision backfire, noting several times that part of his reason for lifting sanctions was because of the advocacy of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. “Oh, what I do for the crown prince,” Trump said.
Some of Trump’s recent wins hardly suggest he’s ready to do the hard work of diplomacy. He claimed he reached big trade deals with the UK and China. But they’d be better described as announcements of an intent to reach agreements. If Tuesday’s sanctions move is similar, his Syria diplomacy will never reach its goals.
There’s another reason for anxiety. Al-Sharaa seems to have activated Trump’s weakness for strongmen. He described the former terrorist as a “great young attractive guy” and a “fighter.” Jarringly, given the Syrian leader’s al Qaeda associations, the president commented that he had “a very strong past.”
History is full of examples in which Washington put its trust in Middle East tough-guy leaders to keep countries torn by religious and tribal divides in one piece. In Iraq, such a bet ended up costing thousands of US lives.
But Trump is more optimistic.
“It’s their time to shine,” he said. “Good luck, Syria. Show something very special.”
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