In the world of expectations leading up to a major championship, Justin Thomas may have just won himself a free pass with his recent victory at the RBC Heritage at Harbor Town on Hilton Head Island, S.C. He’s a two-time major champion, but had been struggling.
His first major came in 2017 — a two-shot victory in the P.G.A. Championship at Quail Hollow in Charlotte, N.C., where the event returns this week. The second major was also a P.G.A. Championship, in 2022 at Southern Hills.
The pressure on Thomas came because he went three years without a win before his victory at Harbor Town last month. That stretch was characterized by more downs than ups, including being a controversial captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup in 2023. He was seen as having edged out the more-deserving Keegan Bradley, who had won the Travelers Championship that year and was playing well. But then came the Ryder Cup itself, where Thomas won only his singles match, losing two others and winning a halve in the third.
Thomas, the world No. 5, is sure to be asked about what it’s like to be returning to Quail Hollow. But the weight of expectations will most probably rest on others. The focus will likely to come center on two players, Rory McIlroy and Scottie Scheffler.
Scheffler notched his first win of the season at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson in Texas this month.
In the past, he hasn’t played Quail Hollow that well, at least compared with his high standards. When the club hosted the Presidents Cup in 2022 — the biennial match between the United States and the International squad — Scheffler lost three matches and contributed only half a point.
Scheffler, who joined the PGA Tour in 2020, has skipped the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow over the years. He didn’t play it last year because his wife was about to give birth.
The defending P.G.A. champion Xander Schauffele might seem like a favorite after also winning the British Open last year. But he has had only a serviceable start to this season, making the cut in all six events he’s played but notching only one top-10, with a tie for 8th at the Masters.
Bryson DeChambeau, a perennial favorite in major championships, contended with Schauffele in last year’s P.G.A. Championship until the final hole. The next month, he won the U.S. Open for the second time in impressive style, with a par save from the sand on the final hole to beat McIlroy. Last month at the Masters, DeChambeau seemed poised to chase down McIlroy, but he faded by the back nine.
In the expectations game this week, the focus is on McIlroy, Scheffler and Jordan Spieth for three very different reasons.
In winning the Masters last month, McIlroy did something only six other people have ever accomplished: He completed the career Grand Slam by winning all four major championships. The last to do this was Tiger Woods. Having finally added another major victory after 11 years, McIlroy will not face the regular barrage of questions about when he might win a major again.
Adding to this, McIlroy has a stellar record at Quail Hollow. He has won the annual PGA Tour stop there four times, with his most recent triumph coming last year, when the tournament was called the Wells Fargo Championship.
If he were to win this week, expectations would rise. He would be the first player since Spieth in 2015 to win the first two majors of the year. (Back then, the P.G.A. occurred in August, not May.)
Spieth, for his part, has assumed the pressure-packed role that McIlroy has just relinquished. A player who has won three different major championships, he would accomplish the career Grand Slam if he were to win the P.G.A.
Like McIlroy, Spieth started his career strong: He won the Masters, the U.S. Open and the British Open before he was 25. Also like McIlroy — at least, up until this year’s Masters victory — it has been a long time since Spieth’s last major victory, which was the 2017 British Open. His best finish at the P.G.A. was second, in 2015 .
While a hallmark of his game is skillful surprise, he’s a long shot this week.
Paul Sullivan, the Wealth Matters columnist from 2008 to 2021, is the founder of The Company of Dads, a work and parenting site aimed at fathers. He is also the author of The Thin Green Line: The Money Secrets of the Super Wealthy and Clutch: Why Some People Excel Under Pressure and Others Don’t. @sullivanpaul
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