Conservative states with a hands-off approach to development, such as Texas and Oklahoma, have become wind and solar energy dynamos in recent years. But a simultaneous push by Republicans in Washington and in Sun Belt state capitals to cut off tax incentives and tighten permitting regulations threatens to snuff out the red-state renewable energy boom.
The one-two punch underscores the Republicans’ move away from embracing an “all-of-the-above” approach to energy to a one-sided effort to return to fossil fuels. Its success would unwind four years of Democratic efforts to address climate change and advance a clean-energy economy.
The shift has been particularly jarring in Texas, the nation’s top wind power producer, which is second only to California in solar energy and industrial battery storage. Renewable energy companies have announced plans for $64 billion in new investments in Texas, mostly for solar and battery storage projects, since Democrats in Washington passed the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022. Investments in Texas alone would eclipse the next five biggest states combined.
But on Tuesday, Republicans in Congress began work on legislation that would roll back tax credits for low-carbon energy, using rules that ensure the bill could reach President Trump with simple majorities in the House and Senate.
Rather than object, the Republican-controlled State Senate in Texas has passed — and the State House is currently considering — several regulatory bills to curtail solar and wind projects in favor of new natural gas plants. Long the party of limited regulation and free markets, Republicans are now seeking to impose new rules on how electricity should be produced.
“That’s the choice these lawmakers have to make: ideology or pragmatism,” said Doug Lewin, an energy consultant who writes a newsletter focused on the Texas electricity grid. “Do you hate renewables so much that you’re willing to take out the Texas economy with it?”
Proponents of the new bills say the goal is practical — to increase reliability and balance the effects of federal subsidies for renewable power.
Representative Jared Patterson, a Republican from suburban Dallas, called it leveling “the playing field,” as he lamented the “multiple advantages in the market” enjoyed by renewable energy, at least for now. He has sponsored a bill that would force wind and solar companies to pay for backup power.
In Texas, the effort comes at a potentially challenging time for the power grid. Energy-intensive businesses, including new manufacturing plants and massive data centers for artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies, have been flocking to the state in part because of its plentiful and relatively cheap power.
At the same time, a warming planet has generated record summer heat and added to that power demand. A heat wave this week was expected to shatter previous electricity demand records for May.
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the state’s grid manager, forecasts demand for power to possibly double within five years. Bills restricting renewable energy sources would compound existing risks, Pablo Vegas, the chief executive of ERCOT, said this month.
But the fight over energy in the United States has become increasingly ideological. Mr. Trump has supported cutting renewable energy tax credits, and taken steps to block new wind projects. Seventeen states, led by New York, have sued in response. Texas was not among them.
In Oklahoma, where companies have announced plans to invest $2 billion in wind, solar and battery projects since 2022, anti-renewable Republican legislators and the state’s attorney general are squaring off against Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican who considers himself pro-business.
“If I tried to limit wind energy and say, ‘Oh, I don’t want the wind energy to happen,’ am I not doing the same thing that they’re doing in California by trying to limit fossil fuels?” Mr. Stitt asked in an interview. “You either believe in a free market, or you don’t, right?”
For years, Texas maintained its freewheeling attitude toward energy development even as other states have been issuing more restrictions on power plants. In Iowa, more than a dozen counties have effectively barred new wind turbines. California’s largest county has put a moratorium on large solar arrays.
“Texas has maintained making it easy,” said Devin Hartman, director of energy and environmental policy at the R Street Institute, a moderate Republican advocacy group. “But,” he added, “they’re on the cusp of changing all that.”
Legislation that has already passed the State Senate would create a new permitting process for renewable energy projects. New wind projects, for instance, would be required to be set back at least 3,000 feet from neighboring property lines, and state regulators would be allowed to veto new renewable energy installations.
Another bill would require utilities to offset new wind and solar generation with an equal amount of “dispatchable” capacity, meaning power generation that can be quickly switched on, usually with natural gas.
“It’s not wrongheaded to ask the question, How much dispatchable do we need for a reliable system?” said Katie Coleman, a lobbyist for the Texas Association of Manufacturers.
But energy experts caution that new natural gas plants face a global backlog on orders of gas turbines. Any new gas projects that aren’t already under development are unlikely to come online before 2030, said John Ketchum, the chief executive of NextEra Energy, one of the country’s largest power producers.
Nearly 91 percent of the electric capacity in line to connect to the grid over the next six years are solar, wind or battery plants, according to ERCOT data. Only about 8 percent are new gas plants.
Even with a state-created fund to subsidize new natural gas-fired power plants, seven of the 17 gas power projects deemed eligible last year for low-interest loans are no longer moving forward.
“Gas turbines are difficult to get,” said Rob Minter, senior vice president for government and regulatory affairs at Engie North America, which builds both renewable and gas-fired power plants. In February, the company withdrew two applications to build subsidized gas plants through the Texas fund, citing delays in procuring equipment.
“So that leaves renewables,” he added, “and we have the ability to put those on the ground in a couple years, not five or 10.”
That message has not swayed the Legislature. The Texas House could soon vote on a bill to require existing wind and solar generators to obtain backup power to supplement the hours when the sun isn’t shining or the wind isn’t blowing. The State Senate has already passed it.
“These bills would drive a stake through the heart of the industry,” said Judd Messer, Texas vice president of the Advanced Power Alliance, a clean energy industry trade group.
Debate over electricity production has been a major political issue in Texas since 2021, when a winter storm crippled the power grid, and more than 240 people died. A federal study found the cold weather caused significant failures in natural gas-fueled plants, which can struggle in extreme heat and cold.
Many Republicans blamed wind and solar power anyway.
As with much of the country, Texas’ electricity costs have already been rising. In February, the cost of powering a typical home in the United States rose to about $149 a month, up about $4 from a year earlier, according to the Energy Information Administration.
And William W. Hogan, who helped design the Texas electricity market and is now a professor of global energy policy at Harvard’s Kennedy School, said the push to favor fossil fuel generation would most likely further drive up costs, without increasing reliability.
“It’s a new thumb on the scale,” Mr. Hogan said.
A study last month commissioned by the Texas Association of Business concluded that restricting renewable development in Texas could increase electricity prices by 14 percent by 2035, and potentially leave up to 620,000 homes without electricity during extreme weather events.
Ed Hirs, an economist and energy fellow at the University of Houston, said the state does need more natural gas capacity to run during emergencies. But he does not believe the solution is to restrict renewable energy.
“Without that growth of renewables,” he said, “the Texas grid is dead in the water, and so is the economy.”
J. David Goodman is the Houston bureau chief for The Times, reporting on Texas and Oklahoma.
Brad Plumer is a Times reporter who covers technology and policy efforts to address global warming.
Ivan Penn is a reporter based in Los Angeles and covers the energy industry. His work has included reporting on clean energy, failures in the electric grid and the economics of utility services.
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