When U.S. presidents embark on their first overseas trip after taking office, it is often seen as a statement of intent—a defining signal of foreign policy priorities for the next four years.
For Donald Trump, the path is a familiar one. As he did during his first term, he’s chosen the Persian Gulf for his first official overseas trip—returning Tuesday to a region where he aims to do what he claims no one does better: strike big deals.
Far from a traditional diplomatic tour, Trump’s second-term kickoff is saturated with real estate contracts, defense procurements, and eye-popping investment pledges. Trump will visit Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates—three of the richest nations in the world—to ink what he hopes will amount to over $1 trillion in investment and trade agreements.
Trump originally hoped the trip would feature more than economic announcements. There were quiet efforts to arrange a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin — potentially alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — in Riyadh. He also sought momentum on a ceasefire in Gaza. Neither initiative materialized, though Hamas did release the last American citizen from its captivity ahead of the president’s trip.
With diplomacy all but sidelined, the administration has leaned heavily into a commercial agenda—from nuclear energy and aviation to artificial intelligence, luxury real estate and even golf. It’s an agenda that could benefit the American people, but will almost certainly benefit the Trump family business.
Leaning Into the Grandeur
“From the early days of his presidency, Trump made it clear he wanted Saudi Arabia to be the first stop of his second term,” Mohamad Bazzi, director of the Kevorkian Center for Near Eastern Studies at New York University, told Newsweek. “But this time there’s even less pretense. He’s leaning into the grandeur, the ceremony, and the potential for deals.”
Trump has thrown out numbers ranging from $500 billion to $2.5 trillion in potential investments. Saudi Arabia is expected to contribute the largest share—over $1 trillion—while the UAE and Qatar are likely to pledge more. The White House is promoting the trip as an economic win for American workers.
But observers say there’s more going on than just business. Trump’s family business is expanding its footprint across the Gulf, with a $500 million luxury resort in Oman, new Trump-branded towers in Dubai and Jeddah, and a recent real estate project in Qatar. Some of these ventures are connected to cryptocurrency efforts funded by UAE-linked investors.
“This is an unusual situation,” Bazzi said. “We haven’t seen a modern U.S. president with business interests so closely tied to the places he’s visiting. And at the moment, there’s no sign that anyone’s holding him accountable.”
By now, Gulf leaders know how to work with Trump. Many see the trip as a chance to boost their own influence—offering investment pledges and lavish receptions in exchange for visibility and access.
Saudi Arabia is hosting the tentpole events, but other countries in the region are eager to participate. Qatar has offered to donate a luxury Boeing 747-8, worth around $400 million, to the U.S. government. If accepted, as Trump says he plans to, it would be the most expensive aircraft ever given to a sitting American president. The legal and ethical knots are plenty.
Still, analysts caution against taking the investment numbers at face value. “Trump talks about $500 billion, $1 trillion, now $2.5 trillion—but a lot of this is theater,” Bazzi said. “In 2017, they announced $110 billion in arms deals. Less than a third of that ever happened.”
Steven A. Cook, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, echoed that skepticism in a media briefing. “These numbers sound impressive, but they’re often backloaded,” he said. “The region is full of deals that look good on paper but never materialize.”
Unfinished Promises
Carolyn Kissane, associate dean at NYU’s Center for Global Affairs, told Newsweek that Trump’s foreign policy has increasingly taken the shape of a global business pitch. “Trump is prioritizing dealmaking over peacemaking,” she said. “This emphasis on business and deals reflects his priorities in foreign policy.”
That sentiment is echoed by Dr. Ibrahim Al-Assil, senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, who told Newsweek the administration’s economic focus comes at a cost. “By locking in major investment pledges and arms sales, the administration is prioritizing short-term deliverables and bilateral loyalty,” he said.
“But this narrow lens leaves little room for a cohesive U.S. strategy to manage regional crises like Gaza or Iran.”
Al-Assil warned that this transactional approach risks sidelining multilateral cooperation and overlooking critical issues such as governance reform and long-term regional stability.
Unlike in 2017, Trump has excluded Israel from this week’s itinerary. The ongoing war in Gaza and Saudi unwillingness to be seen endorsing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have stalled any public progress on normalization between the Saudis and Israelis. A hoped-for ceasefire in Gaza remains elusive, and no meetings or agreements on that war were scheduled.
“Trump is likely to return from this trip with commitments of investment and trade with three Arab states,” Ambassador Daniel Kurtzer, former U.S. envoy to Israel and Egypt, told Newsweek.
Kurtzer, now a professor at Princeton University, said the trip’s long-term importance will depend not on the dollar figures announced in press releases, but on whether the White House can demonstrate progress on managing the thicket of geopolitical issues in the region.
“The strategic significance of the trip will depend on whether Trump can make progress on two promises on which he has yet to make good: bringing the Gaza war to an end and returning all the hostages; and reaching an agreement that stops Iran’s nuclear program,” he said.
“While Trump evinces optimism,” he added, “it is hard to see a U.S. strategy at work in either negotiation.”
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