Europe’s fuel manufacturing sector is already delivering the sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) needed to meet the ReFuelEU mandates — ahead of schedule. Capacity is growing, costs are falling and investments are surging, despite unstable regulation and weak business incentives.
However, recent public claims wrongly accuse fuel producers of lagging behind, misrepresenting the situation. In reality, SAF supply is on track to meet EU regulatory demand by 2030, and renewable fuel prices have fallen by over 40 percent.
It is now clear that predictable and supportive regulation, the mobilization of additional sustainable feedstocks, the recognition of innovative co-processing techniques and harmonized EU legislation to support our industrial transformation are needed.
Europe’s fuel manufacturers are strategic allies — not obstacles — in achieving climate neutrality. We stand ready to accelerate decarbonization across all transport sectors, with the right policy support.
With growing concern, FuelsEurope and its members observe the recent public discourse questioning the availability of SAF in Europe — and, astonishingly, the commitment of Europe’s fuel manufacturing sector.
Recent claims by the aviation industry, citing an early version of a Boston Consulting Group (BCG) report,1 allege that fuel producers are falling short of delivering SAF to market. Yet, strikingly, this report omits any mention of the European refining industry’s ongoing contributions to EU climate targets under the ReFuelEU Aviation initiative. Following public misuse of the study, BCG itself clarified that global bio-SAF supplies are projected to reach 9 to 12 million tons by 2030. This comfortably exceeds regulatory demand, including ReFuelEU’s 3 million ton target.
Facts matter: Europe’s fuel industry is already delivering
Today, Europe’s HEFA capacity — the most common bio-SAF — stands at 1.5 million tonnes per year, with another 2.4 million tonnes of additional firm SAF capacity set to be added up to 2029. For context:
- 2025 ReFuelEU mandate (2 percent): requires 1 million tonnes — which has already been achieved.
- 2030 ReFuelEU mandate (6 percent): requires 2.7 million tonnes — which is well within reach.
Even the regional European Union Aviation Safety Agency2 (EASA) affirms that SAF supply is expected to exceed 3.2 million tonnes annually by 2030, backed by a surge of projects across Europe. And according to Argus Media, EU SAF capacity will outpace demand until at least 2035. Moreover, SAF production implies the production of co-products that will find their way into road transport.
Argus Media – Spotlight on European SAF Market – Countdown to 2025
Progress despite obstacles: investing against the odds
This progress has not been easy. Europe’s refiners invest billions of euros to pivot toward renewable fuel production — despite facing a fragmented, unstable regulatory framework and a shaky business case. Seven biorefineries (with another one transitioning) already deliver 100 percent renewable fuels for all transport sectors, for a total volume of about 4 million tonnes per year, while numerous others are advancing through co-processing sustainable feedstocks.
These bold, pioneering moves have paid off:
- SAF production soared tenfold from 100,000 tonnes in 2022 to 1 million tonnes in 2024.
Renewable fuel prices dropped from a ratio of over four to below two compared with conventional jet fuel levels in just three years.3 This is the clearest proof: Europe’s fuel industry is not a bottleneck — it is the engine driving the future of green aviation.
The real challenge: policy must rise to the occasion
The affordability of SAF remains a shared concern. To scale faster, policy must step up — mobilizing more feedstocks and backing capital-intensive e-SAF projects within the forthcoming Sustainable Transport Investment Plan.
We urgently call for a regulatory shift:
- Predictable growth: allow annual national SAF incentives ahead of ReFuelEU targets, and set post-2030 mandates during the 2027 revision.
- Feedstock certainty: embrace new feedstocks like intermediate and degraded land crops without paralyzing overregulation.
- Recognition of innovation: acknowledge the contribution of RFNBO4 hydrogen in final fuels.
- Smarter rules: harmonize low-carbon fuel and circular carbon criteria across Renewable Energy Directive (RED) and Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) systems.
Without swift, strategic policy action, we risk stalling the green transformation at the very moment we should be accelerating it.
Europe’s refiners: a strategic partner, and the strongest ally of the aviation sector
The aviation sector needs sustainable fuels — and Europe’s fuel manufacturers are already delivering. Yet the road to 2030 and beyond demands partnership, not finger-pointing.
Our industry has stood firmly behind the EU’s climate ambitions. We are transforming operations, investing heavily and innovating boldly. But this transition must be recognized, supported and strategically leveraged.
We are here, ready to tackle the challenge.
We call for recognition — not blame — of our indispensable role in building a climate-neutral Europe, on land, in the skies and across the seas.
1. BCG sustainable aviation needs a faster takeoff – March 27, 2025
2. EASA – State of the EU SAF Market 2023
3. 2021-2023 data rely on Argus Media average SAF prices, referenced in EASA – State of the EU SAF Market 2023.2024 data is an indicative industry estimate based on SAF market tracking
4. Renewable liquid and gaseous fuels of non-biological origin.
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