Welcome back to Foreign Policy’s Situation Report. It’s been a historic week. There’s a new pope—and for the first time in history, he’s American. But there’s also plenty going on in the realm of national security, with major developments regarding U.S. involvement in the Middle East and ongoing concerns about India-Pakistan tensions.
On that note, here’s what’s on tap for the day: A shaky cease-fire between the United States and the Houthis, devastating drone strikes in Sudan, and U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance takes a gentler approach with European allies.
Will the U.S.-Houthi Truce Last?
U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday announced a surprise cease-fire agreement with the Houthis in Yemen, bringing an abrupt halt to an intense U.S. bombing campaign against the Iran-backed group.
Both sides are claiming victory over the deal. Trump on Tuesday said the Houthis “capitulated,” though he later praised the group for its “bravery” Meanwhile, the Houthis on Wednesday said the United States “backed down.”
But the deal doesn’t solve the issues that led to the hostilities in the first place. As such, there’s skepticism that the cease-fire will bring stability to the Red Sea region—and reasons to believe it won’t last.
“This is a shaky cease-fire at best,” said Gregory Brew, a senior analyst with Eurasia Group and an expert on Iran who has closely followed the situation in the Red Sea.
Why now? The Houthis have been targeting Israel and commercial ships in the Red Sea since late 2023 in response to the war in Gaza. The attacks have wreaked havoc on international shipping in the vital waterway, through which some 30 percent of the world’s container ships normally travel. The Houthis have also attacked U.S. military assets in the region.
The Biden administration struck back against the Houthis, but Trump in March dramatically escalated strikes against the group and said it would be “completely annihilated.”
Though the Trump administration says the operation successfully took out a large number of Houthi leaders and fighters, growing questions over the campaign’s effectiveness and costliness likely contributed to the administration’s decision to stop fighting. The military operation has cost more than $1 billion, and Democrats in Congress have raised concerns about civilian casualties from the U.S. strikes.
There have also been several mishaps in recent months involving the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier, which is deployed in the Red Sea. In late April, an F/A-18E Super Hornet—a fighter jet worth about $67 million—fell overboard and was lost as the Truman swerved to avoid incoming fire from the Houthis.
This was a “fairly significant loss,” Brew said, and it suggested that “despite the ongoing strikes, the Houthis were still having success getting their drones and missiles close enough to U.S. warships that these kinds of incidents were being caused.”
A recent Houthi missile strike close to Ben Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv also may have signaled to Trump that the U.S. operation wasn’t weakening the group enough. “The Houthis being able to successfully hit Israel, and then Israel being forced to issue a muscular response, may have indicated to the president that this campaign was potentially a waste of time” and that “this was an issue best left to the Israelis to manage themselves,” Brew said.
The Iran factor. The truce comes as Washington pushes for a new nuclear deal with Iran. Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, who is spearheading the U.S. talks with Iran, helped broker the cease-fire with the Houthis, and reports suggest that Tehran urged the group toward the truce to help build momentum for a nuclear agreement.
The Trump administration said the bombing campaign against the Houthis was meant to stop attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. Yet the Houthis haven’t claimed an attack against commercial vessels since December. That suggests that the U.S. campaign may have been designed, at least in part, to show Tehran that the Trump administration is willing to conduct strikes in the Middle East.
“They didn’t want to escalate against Iran directly,” Brew said, and “getting the cease-fire does allow the U.S. and Iran to take a small step away from the brink.”
The cease-fire could be perceived as a “strategic win” for Tehran, Brew said, especially if “the Houthis continue to shoot at Israel without a significant escalation risk with the United States” and “particularly if it helps them secure an acceptable nuclear agreement that brings sanctions relief.”
Will the truce last? The cease-fire reportedly surprised Israel, which has vowed to continue defending itself against the Houthis, with or without U.S. help. The Houthis have also referred to the truce as “preliminary” and said they will continue to evaluate their position based on the nature of U.S. support to Israel.
“It’s entirely possible that the U.S. strikes Houthi targets again, especially if the Houthis manage to successfully strike Israel or if they continue to target ships,” Brew said.
In a sign that the cease-fire hasn’t inspired much confidence so far, major container-shipping companies say they’re not returning to the Red Sea just yet.
Let’s Get Personnel
David Perdue, the former senator from Georgia, was officially sworn in as the U.S. ambassador to China, just days before the two countries are set to meet for trade discussions.
Laurie Buckhout was sworn in as deputy assistant secretary of defense for cyber policy, a role she was initially appointed to in March.
On the Button
What should be high on your radar, if it isn’t already.
Drones in Sudan. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) carried out drone strikes for the third straight day on Tuesday, hitting targets in Port Sudan, including the country’s international airport, a hotel, and oil terminals.
The strikes mark a major escalation in the civil war between the RSF and the Sudanese military, which has lasted more than two years, killed over 150,000 people, and displaced at least 12 million more in what the United Nations has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis.
Sudan’s government on Tuesday cut diplomatic ties with the United Arab Emirates, accusing it of violating Sudan’s sovereignty by backing the RSF. That rupture came a day after the International Court of Justice dismissed Sudan’s case against the UAE for alleged complicity in genocide, with the court citing a lack of jurisdiction due to the UAE’s opting out of a clause that allows countries to sue one another.
Drones over Kashmir. India and Pakistan on Thursday accused each other of carrying out drone strikes across their shared border, further escalating a military conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Pakistan said it shot down 16 Indian drones over its airspace while denying India’s counter-allegations of attempted drone and missile strikes into Indian territory between Wednesday night and Thursday. India said it took out multiple Pakistani air defense systems.
Explosions were reportedly heard in Jammu in Indian-administered Kashmir on Thursday night local time.
The current escalation was kicked off by India’s airstrikes on Pakistan early Wednesday, in which Indian authorities said they targeted nine terrorist camps operating on Pakistani soil in retaliation for a terrorist attack on April 22 that killed 26 tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The Pakistani military said it shot down multiple Indian aircraft during the resulting skirmishes, a claim India has denied but not conclusively disproved. You can read more on the two countries’ respective aerial arsenals in Rishi’s piece here, and our editor in chief, Ravi Agrawal, has a piece on how the two sides might be able to de-escalate.
Trump’s latest culture war victory. The Supreme Court this week allowed the Trump administration to begin implementing its ban on transgender people serving in the military, after a lower court blocked the policy, as litigation over the matter continues.
The policy, which is derived from an executive order Trump signed in January, is part of a broader culture war being waged by the Trump administration targeting the rights of transgender people.
The White House celebrated the Supreme Court’s ruling as a “MASSIVE victory,” stating that Trump and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth are “restoring a military that is focused on readiness and lethality—not DEI or woke gender ideology.”
The groups representing those challenging the ban, Lambda Legal and the Human Rights Campaign Foundation, said the ruling was a “devastating blow to transgender service members who have demonstrated their capabilities and commitment to our nation’s defense.”
Snapshot
Hot Mic
“I’m having fun” is not something most people would have expected U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance to say at a Munich Security Conference event, considering the infamous finger-wagging speech he gave during his previous appearance at the gathering in Germany in February that left Europe gobsmacked.
But Vance’s conversation with Wolfgang Ischinger as part of the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington on Wednesday was far more amicable than the mood following the vice president’s stern lecture to Europe on free speech in Munich. Ischinger—the conference’s former chair who once served as German ambassador to the United States—did reference the speech in his introduction—but only to say they wouldn’t be rehashing it and would instead focus on the “current challenges of foreign policy.”
Vance struck a more conciliatory tone right at the outset, saying it was “completely ridiculous to think that you’re ever going to be able to drive a firm wedge between the United States and Europe.” Yet he did rehash some familiar grievances from his Munich speech, including the desire for Europe to spend more on its own defense. He also pushed for more European market access for U.S. goods and the lowering of “nontariff … regulatory barriers.”
But Vance also expressed a shift on Europe’s biggest worry: the possible contours of a U.S.-brokered peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. “We think they’re asking for too much,” he said, referring to Russian demands. That echoes Trump’s recent frustrations with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Ischinger told reporters later in the day that he was “totally relieved” by what he heard from Vance, describing the meeting as a “good new start.”
Put On Your Radar
Tuesday, May 13: Trump begins a three-day visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visits China.
Sunday, May 18: Poland holds a presidential election, and Portugal conducts early parliamentary elections.
Romania’s rerun of its presidential election heads to a runoff.
Quote of the Week
“It’s not for sale.”
—Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney to Trump during an Oval Office meeting this week regarding the latter’s push for America’s northern neighbor to become the 51st U.S. state.
This Week’s Most Read
- What Trump’s New Budget Says About U.S. Foreign Policy by Lili Pike and Rishi Iyengar
- Rubio’s Reorganization Plan Is a Wrecking Ball by Jessica Stern
- How Ancient Rome Blew Up Its Own Business Empire by Bret Devereaux
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot
Oops, they did it again. We really wish we didn’t have to spend a second consecutive newsletter describing a second multi-million-dollar U.S. Navy fighter jet falling into the Red Sea by mistake in the space of a week (third overall), but here we are.
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