If there was ever going to be an American pope, Cardinal Robert Prevost — now Leo XIV — was probably going to be it.
Still, as someone who covered the last two conclaves and the latter years of the papacy of John Paul II, I’m pretty stunned by his election. Common wisdom long held that the European-dominated College of Cardinals would never elect an American. The United States was considered too powerful in the world to also put a man on the throne of St. Peter. At the conclaves that elected Benedict XVI and Francis, and at this one, handicappers dutifully put a few Americans on the list of papabili, or possible popes, but usually with the caveat that they were long shots.
Pope Leo, 69, defied the odds. A number of factors point to why.
He was born in Chicago but spent much of his life outside the United States. He lived for two decades in Peru, serving as a missionary, seminary teacher, parish priest and eventually bishop (becoming a naturalized Peruvian citizen). He was also president of the Pontifical Commission for Latin America, home to some 40 percent of the world’s Catholics. So for many of the 133 voting cardinals, he might have been seen more as an international clergyman than a Yank.
In his first speech as pope, from the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, Leo spoke in Italian, as is traditional. He also offered greetings in Spanish — but not English.
His election may also have roots in Francis’ papacy. Francis appointed four-fifths of the cardinals who voted in the conclave, many quite recently (including the future pope, in 2023), and many from countries far from Europe. A good number of them most likely did not know one another well, or had not yet had a chance to gain an understanding of who would be of papal caliber.
But if anyone was on their radar, it was very likely to be Cardinal Prevost. Francis appointed him to head the Vatican department in charge of bishops, where he helped the pope in appointments and as well as managing the bishops. Many bishops would have met the future Leo when their national or regional episcopal groups made regular trips to Rome.
Let’s not forget the bloc of 10 American cardinal electors.
It is of course difficult to know what went through the cardinals’ minds at the secretive conclave in choosing an American. But it’s also easy to imagine they are quite cognizant of the United States’ role in the world — and how that role is shrinking under the Trump administration, whether in the spurning of allies, building of trade walls, withdrawing from diplomacy or retreating from humanitarian aid.
Maybe a time of waning American presence in the world opened the door to an American pope.
Daniel J. Wakin has been a reporter and editor at The Times for more than two decades. He is the author of “The Man With the Sawed-Off Leg and Other Tales of a New York City Block.” @danwakin
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