A top Dutch spy says Europe shouldn’t take its eye off potential danger from China, even as Russian ruler Vladimir Putin continues to attract most of the continent’s security attention.
“China has a very complex, organized cyber system. And we are not able to have a full grasp on what they can do,” Vice Adm. Peter Reesink, director of Dutch military intelligence agency MIVD, told POLITICO during an interview. “I would say that it’s more threatening than Russia.”
In its annual report released late last month, MIVD highlighted the deepening geopolitical, economic and military ties between Russia and China — and the growing risks they pose for Europe.
The Dutch report noted that Russia is stepping up its hybrid attacks against the Netherlands and its European allies to influence and undermine their societies, while U.S. intelligence agencies revealed last year that Chinese cyber group Salt Typhoon had infiltrated major American telecoms providers for at least a year.
“We saw something similar happening in Europe, although not at the same level as in the U.S.,” Reesink said, adding that China had targeted some 10 European countries. “But what we can observe is only a limited part of China’s complex cyber system.”
The MIVD report revealed that Russia attempted to disrupt the European election last June by launching cyberattacks on websites linked to Dutch political parties and public transport systems — efforts intended to make it harder for Dutch citizens to vote.
According to Reesink, such interference — from an increasingly belligerent Russia that has been waging war on neighboring Ukraine for years while conducting hybrid warfare in Europe — is not unique to the Netherlands.
“We have information of Russian interference in different elections, and not only through disinformation. That’s in a few countries, and it is mostly with countries which used to be under the influence of Russia,” he said.
Bracing for Russian attack
Reesink warned that Russia’s most threatening behavior is its ongoing military buildup for a potential future conflict.
In 2024, Russia’s defense spending reached an estimated $149 billion, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute — a 38 percent increase from 2023 and double the level from 2015.
“Russia is producing much more artillery, also with help from other countries, than they need for the war with Ukraine,” Reesink said. He noted that Russia is not only replenishing depleted stockpiles but also moving new artillery units toward NATO borders, including the Baltic countries and Finland.
“That’s an indication for us that they are building up capability,” he said, while emphasizing that MIVD does not currently foresee Putin initiating a new war.
Reesink estimated that once — or if — a settlement with Ukraine is reached, Russia could be ready for a new conflict within a year, assuming its military production stays at current levels and the Kremlin maintains its political appetite for combat.
“The Netherlands, like the rest of NATO countries, is in a phase of enhanced readiness program to make sure that we’re ready if that occurs,” he said.
“Most ministries have faced budget cuts — except defense — and at the political level there’s little debate about the need to prepare,” he said. “We were a little bit reluctant over the past 20, 30 years, I must admit, but now that awareness is back again.”
Trump’s wake-up call
Aside from the threats from China and Russia, European intelligence top brass sees another elephant in the room: U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since his reelection in November, Trump has moved to consolidate political control over American intelligence agencies by cutting funds, sidelining dissenting voices and appointing loyalists to key positions — moves that critics say will undermine the independence and effectiveness of the intelligence community.
“It’s not a very comfortable signal from the U.S. when you see the leadership on their side from the intelligence agencies being … well, having to seek another job,” Reesink said.
But he argued that Trump’s return to office has served as a wake-up call for European intelligence services.
“It was a good look in the mirror for Europe and the role we have to play for ourselves,” he said. The awareness “that something needs to be done from a European perspective” has taken root, he added.
“And I can give you an example: A few weeks ago, we had a meeting in Brussels with intelligence agencies, both civilian and military. And for the first time, I think, all of us directors were present,” he said.
Reesink emphasized that cooperation among European and U.S. intelligence agencies remains robust and mutually beneficial — though he did have a word of warning.
“If I look at the working level, there’s so much cooperation which has been going on for years, which is very viable for us, but for the U.S. as well. That’s not going to change overnight,” he said.
However, Reesink acknowledged that Europe “cannot close its eyes” and may need to reassess its intelligence sharing with Washington in light of Trump, who has promoted some Russian narratives about Moscow’s war in Ukraine.
“We weigh our level of cooperation, the amount and the intensity in which we share … and that could mean in the end that we are changing the way we have to cooperate with the U.S.,” he cautioned.
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