Guesses about who the next Roman Catholic pope will be often prove inaccurate. Before the selection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the front-runners.
This time, predictions are further complicated, because Francis made many appointments in a relatively short period during his tenure, diversifying the College of Cardinals and making it harder to identify movements and factions within the group.
Still, discussion of potential names began long ago behind the Vatican’s walls and beyond. As the cardinals began meeting in Rome after Pope Francis’ funeral, papal watchers scrutinized snippets of statements emerging from their discussions, trying to discern whether the electors were leaning toward a candidate who would build on Francis’ agenda or one who would represent a return to a more traditional style.
Cardinals Pietro Parolin of Italy and Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines have been the most mentioned candidates to replace Pope Francis in the days before the conclave, which starts Wednesday. But conclaves are often unpredictable, and this one — with so many new cardinals from so many places who do not know each other well — has even more potential to surprise. A long list of other contenders has already emerged.
Pietro Parolin
It seems that everyone knows Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state under Francis. Cardinal Parolin will preside over the papal election and has emerged as a leading compromise candidate.
A quiet, plodding Italian with a famously inscrutable poker face, Cardinal Parolin, 70, is deeply cautious. But at a time of global upheaval, that is not necessarily a disqualifier. Even his backers grant that he lacks Francis’ charisma and global symbolism — but as the leader of the Vatican machinery for the past decade, he enacted Francis’ vision.
Cardinals have talked about Cardinal Parolin as someone who could have a steady, bureaucratic hand on the church’s wheel. His critics on the left question his past comments about same-sex marriage, which he called a “defeat for humanity,” and his lack of pastoral experience. His critics on the right criticize his role in the church’s efforts to make inroads in China, which has required negotiations with Communist leaders.
But few prelates who know him have strong feelings about him either way. And after the eventful and, for some, divisive dozen years under Francis, bland but competent may be just what the cardinals are looking for.
On migration, for example, whereas Francis excoriated the inhumanity of great powers turning the Mediterranean into a graveyard, Cardinal Parolin said after a meeting with Italy’s right-wing prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, that immigration was “a very, very complex subject.”
— Jason Horowitz and Patricia Mazzei
Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle
Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle, 67, a liberal-leaning cardinal from the Philippines, has for years been deemed a front-runner to be pope and would be the first pope from Southeast Asia.
An ally of Francis who has worked at the Vatican in recent years, Cardinal Tagle has a highly personable approach in line with Francis’ attention to the poor and those in need in developing countries.
He also comes from a region of the world where Catholicism continues to grow, and where Francis paid particular attention to trying to build a church with a less Eurocentric future.
At the Vatican, Cardinal Tagle has overseen missionary work. Widely known by his nickname “Chito,” he is often called the “Asian Francis” for his ability to connect with the poor, his call for action against climate change and his criticism of the “harsh” stance adopted by some Catholic clerics toward gay people, divorced people and unwed mothers. Cardinal Tagle is popular for his humility, and his homilies have drawn the faithful to the pews and to Facebook streams.
But as leader of the church in the Philippines, he was criticized by activists and fellow priests as being timid about the scourge of clerical sexual abuse. He has also been faulted by some as not adequately addressing former President Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war, in which tens of thousands of people were summarily executed. Cardinal Tagle did not respond to a request for an interview.
— Sui-Lee Wee and Aie Balagtas See
Fridolin Ambongo
Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo, 65, the archbishop of Kinshasa, the capital of the Democratic Republic of Congo, has been considered a possible contender since Francis made him a cardinal in 2019.
Pope Francis had long urged the Catholic Church to “go to the peripheries,” meaning communities in Africa and Asia, where the church also is the most vibrant. One persistent question has been when the church might reinforce that commitment by choosing a pope from Africa. Catholics make up about 18 percent of the continent’s population and generate more seminarians than any other part of the world.
Pope Francis, an Argentine, was the first non-European to lead the church since 741. Even so, Francis was from a family with Italian roots.
Yet there is a certain paradox involved in choosing any successor from Africa. While it would be a break from tradition, the Catholic hierarchy in Africa is among the most conservative.
Cardinal Ambongo was close to Pope Francis, one of just nine members of an advisory group known as the Council of Cardinals. But the cardinal led the opposition to Francis’ 2023 ruling that priests could bless same-sex couples.
— Neil MacFarquhar
Anders Arborelius
Bishop Anders Arborelius of Stockholm, 75, who converted to Catholicism at age 20, is Sweden’s first Catholic cardinal.
Although Sweden was once predominantly Lutheran and is now largely secular, the Roman Catholic Church has grown there in recent years, and Cardinal Arborelius says that many of the Catholics there have an immigrant background. Francis’ elevation of the cardinal in 2017 was seen as another attempt to appoint cardinals in places that did not have one before, and to reach out to countries where Catholics are a minority.
In a recent interview, Cardinal Arborelius said the biggest challenges facing the church were building bridges in a polarized world, giving greater influence to women within the church and helping families pass on the faith.
Cardinal Arborelius, who belongs to the Carmelite religious order, has expressed support for migrants, as Francis did. In the interview, he expressed deep concern about growing anti-migrant sentiments, including in Sweden. As for the blessings of same-sex couples, he said, “We have to go to the gay people with much love,” adding, “even if we cannot recognize gay marriage.”
He played down his chances of becoming pope. At 75, “I would be too old,” he said. He said he was told that, according to an A.I. chatbot, his chances were 5 percent. “I had to laugh,” he said.
— Emma Bubola
Jean-Marc Aveline
Cardinal Jean-Marc Aveline, 66, from Marseille in France, has spent years promoting dialogue among faiths in the port city, which is known for its diverse cultures and religions but is also plagued by poverty and crime.
Having a background in interreligious dialogue not only was important to Francis but also has become an important area for the Catholic Church.
Among candidates, Cardinal Aveline would be a less obvious choice. Working in his favor: He mixes Francis’ openness to dialogue with deep theological knowledge. Possibly working against him: Conclaves have not been warm to French candidates since the 14th century, when a French pope moved the papacy to Avignon in the south of France.
He had a good relationship with Francis and shared a similarly simple personal style; he has been known to do his own laundry and likes to drive his own car.
Unlike Francis, Cardinal Aveline has refrained from openly taking stands on contentious issues within the church, such as the blessing of gay couples or giving communion to divorced people, both of which Francis allowed. Both detractors and supporters describe Cardinal Aveline as embracing “classic” positions on church doctrine.
— Emma Bubola
Charles Maung Bo
Cardinal Charles Maung Bo is well known and influential among Asian leaders of the Roman Catholic Church. He has employed a delicate diplomatic touch as the leader of a Catholic minority in Myanmar, a predominantly Buddhist country.
The archbishop of Yangon, he became Myanmar’s first cardinal in 2015. And as his conflict-torn country’s most prominent Roman Catholic, he has been an outspoken religious leader, calling for peace and dialogue since a military coup in 2021.
The cardinal has also defended Myanmar’s persecuted Muslim Rohingya people, a highly delicate topic there.
He has described the Rohingya as victims of “ethnic cleansing,” but he also advised Pope Francis before the pontiff’s 2017 visit to Myanmar to avoid using the word Rohingya. It is a contested term in Myanmar, and the cardinal said he feared backlash against the country’s Catholics if Francis uttered it.
Cardinal Bo, 76, has also reprimanded the international community for inaction over the persecution of Uyghur Muslims in China.
— Patricia Mazzei
Pablo Virgilio Siongco David
Cardinal Pablo Virgilio Siongco David, 66, from the Philippines is considered an outside contender to succeed Pope Francis.
Experts say that while Cardinal Tagle, also from the Philippines, has attracted more attention, Cardinal David’s slightly lower profile might help, even as his relative youth could count against him.
Shortly after being appointed bishop in Manila in 2015, the prelate was faced with difficult choices when a wave of executions by police officers and vigilantes hit his diocese.
The killings were set off by the campaign by Mr. Duterte, then the president, to eliminate illegal drugs, and the climate of violence that prevailed made staying quiet a safer choice. Instead, the bishop, who was elevated to cardinal in December, began keeping a list of those killed in his diocese, set up mission stations to provide aid to locals and publicly denounced the killings.
In an effort to communicate Catholic teaching more effectively to lay people as bishop, he set up a weekly show on YouTube. He also regularly took part in community efforts to clean up local rivers, partly to show that Catholic leaders should not be cloistered in fine buildings.
— Matthew Mpoke Bigg
Peter Erdo
Cardinal Peter Erdo of Hungary, 72, an expert on canon law, is expected to be a front-runner among cardinals who long for a return to the conservatism of Popes John Paul II and Benedict XVI.
He has spoken out against allowing divorced Catholics to receive communion, for example. But Hungarians who have worked with him say he is less doctrinaire than some fans believe.
Known for his diplomatic skills and command of several languages, he has built bridges with Catholic leaders in Latin America and Africa and reached out to Hungary’s Jewish community.
But he has devoted most of his career to scholarship and has had little direct experience dealing with the day-to-day problems of churchgoers, which could work against him as the church tries to reverse a drift toward secularism across Europe.
Cardinal Erdo has generally avoided intervening in Hungary’s polarized politics but dismayed liberal-minded Hungarian Catholics by failing to defend Francis against a campaign of abuse by the media machine of Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, during Europe’s migration crisis.
— Andrew Higgins
Mario Grech
Cardinal Mario Grech, 68, comes from Malta, an archipelago in the Mediterranean with a relatively small population.
Still, the cardinal — the former bishop of the Maltese island of Gozo — has emerged as a candidate for pope because of his role as secretary general of the Synod of Bishops, a Vatican body that considers “questions pertaining to the activity of the church in the world.”
Pope Francis made the most recent synod much more inclusive and participatory, and Cardinal Grech’s role in stewarding these efforts to open up the church stand in contrast to some of his own history. While he was bishop of Gozo, from 2005 to 2020, he held conservative stances on several issues, including homosexuality and the legalization of divorce, which he opposed when Malta held a referendum in 2011.
He changed his tone under Francis, a progressive, and the cardinal is now seen as someone who would bring continuity to the papacy.
At a time when many cardinals are new and not well acquainted with one another, Cardinal Grech might benefit from his dealings at the Synod, where he met dozens of them in person. He has also taken up global causes that were close to Francis. Malta is a key point of entry in the Mediterranean for migrants arriving from Africa, and Cardinal Grech has called on Europe to open its doors, not close them.
Like other senior church leaders over the last 20 years, Cardinal Grech has been accused by some of not doing enough to reckon with sexual abuse that took place in his diocese. Cardinal Grech did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
— Elisabetta Povoledo
Claudio Gugerotti
Vatican officials have mentioned Cardinal Claudio Gugerotti as a potential kingmaker in the conclave to choose a new pope thanks to his ties to churches and influential figures around the world.
Cardinal Gugerotti, 69, is Italian and speaks Armenian, English, Greek, Kurdish and Russian. In recent years, he led the Vatican office that oversees the Eastern Catholic Churches, 23 self-governing bodies, mainly in Eastern Europe, that have their own liturgy and traditions.
After years of working in Rome, he also knows his way around the Vatican.
Despite his connections, some Vatican observers believe his candidacy is a long shot since he has never served in a pastoral role as a bishop. Pastoral experience is widely seen as a prerequisite for becoming pope, especially after Francis put it at the center of his pontificate.
Cardinal Gugerotti knows the former Soviet region well, which has been especially important in church diplomacy since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. He has served as papal envoy in former Soviet republics like Belarus and Georgia and, in 2015, took on that position for Ukraine.
Some Ukrainians who have dealt with him have said that he has not done enough to make it clear, amid calls for peace, that Russia was the aggressor in the war. Cardinal Gugerotti did not respond to a request for comment for this article.
— Matthew Mpoke Bigg
José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça
Cardinal José Tolentino Calaça de Mendonça, 59, would not the first poet to become pontiff should he be chosen: There have been several in history, including Leo XIII, who in 1887 published poems in Latin, and John Paul II, who penned poems throughout his life.
But Cardinal de Mendonça’s poetry has received several literary prizes in his native Portugal, and when Francis gave him his red cardinal hat in 2019, he told him, “You are the poetry.” He is also a biblical scholar; he is well regarded in intellectual circles outside the Roman Catholic world and he is well known internationally.
The two men first met in 2017, and Francis called him to Rome in 2018 to be the archivist and librarian of the Vatican Library, a post he held for four years. In 2022, Francis named him the Vatican’s culture chief, and in that role he was behind several initiatives reaffirming the church’s commitment to art and its desire for dialogue with the contemporary world.
In that spirit, he brought international artists and comedians — including those known to be controversial — to meet with Francis at the Vatican. His office was also involved in drafting a document, published in January, that warned about the potential for “the shadow of evil” in artificial intelligence, which it said offered “a source of tremendous opportunities but also profound risks.”
He is considered to have been close to Francis, and his papacy would most likely be one of continuity. He has been supportive of outreach to L.G.B.T.Q. Catholics, and some conservatives have been critical of him.
— Elisabetta Povoledo
Seán P. O’Malley
Cardinal Seán P. O’Malley is the recently retired archbishop of Boston.
One of Pope Francis’ trusted allies, he took over the archdiocese of Boston in 2003 when the sexual abuse crisis was erupting in the Catholic Church, replacing Cardinal Bernard Law, who resigned after revelations that he had protected abusive priests for years. Cardinal O’Malley led the region through a painful period of rebuilding and reform before stepping down from the role last year.
In some ways, he is a long-shot candidate. At age 80, he is too old to vote for the next pope, and the voting cardinals almost always choose their successor from among their own ranks. In addition, the chance of an American pope’s being elected is widely thought unlikely.
But Cardinal O’Malley is known to be respected across political divides. He was made a cardinal by Pope Benedict XVI in 2006, and a month after his election in 2013, Pope Francis included him as the only American in an inner circle of counselors. Pope Francis also made him a leader of the Vatican’s office on sexual abuse, and he was an adviser in the reform of the Vatican bureaucracy.
At a moment when questions of American power, in the church and worldwide, worry many church leaders in other parts of the world, Cardinal O’Malley is also seen as globally minded while still understanding the complicated dynamics of the American church. He speaks at least eight languages fluently and is a Capuchin Franciscan friar known for wearing his habit as an expression of humility.
Soft-spoken and yet authoritative, Cardinal O’Malley is known for speaking out not only against abortion but also against gun violence, and he has called repeatedly for a ban on assault weapons.
— Elizabeth Dias
Pierbattista Pizzaballa
Although Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, became a cardinal only in 2023, his experience in the Middle East, one of the world’s most heated conflict zones, helped him rise to prominence.
In the days after Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, the cardinal, the Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, offered himself up as a hostage in exchange for the freedom of children who had been kidnapped to Gaza. The offer, reported by Vatican News, the Holy See’s news portal, was not taken up, but it nevertheless drew attention to him.
As an Italian, Cardinal Pizzaballa would bring the papacy back under the control of a country that dominated it for centuries, after a gap of almost 50 years.
But Cardinal Pizzaballa is seen as a Vatican outsider, given that he has spent decades in the Middle East rather than building alliances closer to home. Some cardinals and other members of the Roman Catholic Church’s hierarchy are also concerned that Cardinal Pizzaballa may be too young for the job.
His reverence for traditional elements of church practice has made him palatable to some conservatives. But his positions on many issues that have caused division in the church are not known.
— Matthew Mpoke Bigg and Isabel Kershner
Robert Francis Prevost
There has never been a pope from the United States, and the conventional wisdom remains that any American would be a long shot.
Yet one American who some Vatican watchers say could scrape together enough votes is Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, 69, a Chicago-born polyglot who is viewed as a churchman who transcends borders. He served for two decades in Peru, where he became a bishop and a naturalized citizen. He then rose to lead his international religious order. Until the death of Pope Francis, he held one of the most influential Vatican posts, running the office that selects and manages bishops globally.
The cardinal, who is a member of the Order of St. Augustine, resembles Francis in his commitment to the poor and migrants. Often described as reserved and discreet, Cardinal Prevost would depart stylistically from Francis. His supporters say he would most likely continue the consultative process started by Francis to invite lay people to meet with bishops.
It is unclear whether he would be as open to gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender Catholics as Francis was. Although he has not said much recently, in a 2012 address to bishops, he lamented that Western news media and popular culture fostered “sympathy for beliefs and practices that are at odds with the Gospel.” He cited the “homosexual lifestyle” and “alternative families comprised of same-sex partners and their adopted children.”
The cardinal, like many others, has drawn criticism over his dealings with priests accused of sexual abuse. Attempts to reach the cardinal were not successful.
— Motoko Rich
Joseph W. Tobin
Cardinal Joseph W. Tobin is the archbishop of Newark, which has one of the most ethnically diverse archdioceses in America.
When Pope Francis named him a cardinal in 2016, he was the first to hold the post in Newark, across the Hudson River from New York City in New Jersey. He replaced an archbishop who refused communion to politicians who supported abortion rights and who also failed to ensure that a priest who was convicted of child sexual abuse would have no access to children.
Cardinal Tobin is known for his support of women, gay people and immigrants. His views were shaped after working as a parish priest, and then spending years traveling the world as leader of his religious order, the Redemptorists.
Pope Benedict brought him to the Vatican to help lead the office that oversees religious orders, but after he defended nuns who were being investigated by the Vatican for insufficient adherence to orthodoxy, he was sent to Indianapolis to serve as its archbishop. There, in 2016, he insisted that the church would continue to resettle Syrian refugees even after Mike Pence, then the governor of Indiana, tried to block the move.
He has shown support for the idea of women becoming deacons and said that he did not see “a compelling theological reason why the pope couldn’t name a woman cardinal.”
— Elizabeth Dias
Peter Turkson
A few years ago, Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana was on many shortlists to be the next pope.
He was considered a favorite in the 2013 conclave that elected Pope Francis, and he worked closely with the pontiff on major issues. But his star dimmed after Francis accepted his resignation from running a major church office.
Cardinal Turkson, 76, is still considered among the most prominent African cardinals who could continue Francis’ vision on social justice, economic equality and the environment. But he is now given only an outside shot.
In a 2017 overhaul of the Vatican bureaucracy, Francis kept him on as the head of the office for Promoting Integral Human Development, which became a larger and more empowered department. The office followed social justice, migration and environmental issues key to Francis’ agenda and was thus seen as central. Cardinal Turkson represented the Vatican at the highest levels around the world, including at the United Nations.
But an investigation into the office’s governance and operations was soon followed by Cardinal Turkson’s resignation. Cardinal Turkson framed it simply as the end of his term, but some Vatican observers took it as a negative judgment on his management ability.
Born into a family of 10 children with a once-Methodist mother and a Muslim paternal uncle, he said he learned interfaith dialogue at home, and he went on to study in seminaries in Ghana and New York. A speaker of six languages, according to a Vatican profile, Cardinal Turkson studied in Rome for a doctorate in scripture studies. He climbed the ranks, became an archbishop under John Paul II and headed up a Vatican office under Benedict XVI.
— Jason Horowitz
Matteo Zuppi
Cardinal Matteo Maria Zuppi of Italy, 69, stands out among the contenders who reflect Francis’ view that the church should be representative of and support the poor. Francis promoted this progressive native of Rome to the rank of cardinal in 2019 and assigned him several important missions.
Cardinal Zuppi is closely tied to Sant’Egidio, a Catholic community known for its service to the poor and conflict resolution.
Vatican watchers say the group became an increasingly important lobby under Francis, but that link has also raised concerns that, if elected pope, he would be overly influenced by the group.
In 2015, Francis named him archbishop of Bologna, one of the most important posts in Italy. There, Don Matteo, as he is known, continued to work with poor people and migrants. “Welcoming migrants is a historic challenge for Europe,” he has said. “Christ invites us to not turn away.” And in recent years, Francis appointed Cardinal Zuppi to the key role of envoy for Ukraine matters.
He has also been welcoming to L.G.B.T. Catholics, writing the preface for the Italian edition of the Rev. James Martin’s 2017 book, “Building a Bridge,” which called for the church to find new pastoral ways of ministering to gay people.
— Elisabetta Povoledo
The post Who Will Be the Next Pope? Here Are Some Possible Contenders. appeared first on New York Times.
