The decisive voter bloc in this year’s midterm elections has dramatically shifted away from President Donald Trump and the Republican Party on the issue that helped elect him, according to CNN’s Harry Enten.
In August 2024, independents trusted Trump over then-Vice President Kamala Harris on inflation by 12 percentage points, a margin Enten described as a key factor in Trump’s victory. That advantage has since collapsed, and Trump’s net approval rating on inflation among independents now stands at 64 points underwater – marking a swing of 76 points in a little over two years.
“Whoa!” Enten said. “You don’t see changes like this. But the key issue that got him elected, now he’s way down there in the Gulf of Mexico.”
A similar reversal has occurred at the party level. In August 2022, ahead of that year’s midterms, independents trusted Republicans over Democrats on inflation by 27 points, a margin that helped the GOP retake the House, but independents now say they trust Democrats more on the issue, by 18 points — a 45-point swing from four years ago.
Enten said such large shifts in voter trust on a single issue are unusual, and noted that the change matters because inflation remains the top concern for independent voters heading into November.
According to the data presented, 38 percent of independents named inflation as their top issue, followed by 14 percent who cited the broader economy and 10 percent who pointed to the conflict with Iran, which Enten said is also closely tied to economic concerns. Combined, more than half of independents identified inflation or the economy as their most pressing issue.
Gas prices, a visible driver of inflation concerns, may not offer Republicans relief before Election Day.
Enten said the combination of persistently high gas prices and the sharp erosion of trust on inflation, the very issue that fueled Republican gains in both the 2022 and 2024 elections, could pose a significant risk for the party in this year’s midterm contests, given how central the issue clearly remains to independent voters’ concerns.
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