A return of the Summer of Hell has been avoided. For now.
The Metropolitan Transportation Authority will get $68.4 billion over the next five years as part of a state budget agreement — its largest ever capital plan — to prevent the subway, bus system and two commuter railroads from falling apart.
But completion of all the projects in the budget, which was agreed to in Albany on Monday, is far from assured. The M.T.A. is counting on $14 billion of the plan from the Trump administration, which has threatened to withhold funding for transportation projects unless the state ends its congestion pricing program in Manhattan. And full details on how the state intends to pay for the plan — largely with an increased rate on an unpopular business tax — are not yet clear.
Now, the onus is on the M.T.A., an agency long criticized for shaky finances, to prove its critics wrong and deliver its most ambitious plan in 45 years on time and on budget.
Gov. Kathy Hochul announced on Monday night that the State Legislature would “fully fund” the $68.4 billion program, most of which is dedicated to repairing or updating long-neglected components of the New York City region’s sprawling mass transit network. The list includes buying new trains and buses, replacing nearly century-old equipment and making the system more accessible for riders with disabilities and families with young children.
The approval of the plan came as a relief to mass transit supporters, who had warned that failure to maintain critical infrastructure would lead to a repeat of the service meltdown seen in mid-2017, when dangerous overcrowding and long delays, mostly on the subway, led then Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo to declare a state of emergency. Politicians and headline writers called it the “Summer of Hell.”
Here is what the plan means for commuters and the broader economy.
What’s in it for you?
The five-year capital plan, which runs from 2025 to 2029, is chock-full of unglamorous improvements to reduce delays and enhance service reliability. More than 90 percent of the plan is dedicated to “state of good repair” projects.
Tom Wright, the president of the Regional Plan Association, an urban planning group, said funding these projects is vital at a time when post-pandemic ridership is rebounding. The subway has around 75 percent of its prepandemic weekday ridership, with more passengers returning.
Without the investment, “we would be running right into the teeth of more frequent failures,” he said, which would affect not only the 2.1 million riders who live near mass transit and regularly take it to work, but the broader regional economy that depends on that work force. Workers who rely on public transit to get to their jobs earn a quarter of all state wages and salaries, and their spending supports hundreds of thousands of other jobs, Mr. Wright said.
The M.T.A. expects to spend $10.9 billion to buy roughly 2,000 new rail cars, an order that will include 1,500 subway cars and more than 500 for the Metro-North and Long Island Rail Road. Some of the train fleet has not been updated since at least 1980, the year of the M.T.A.’s first capital plan. Another $3.3 billion will buy and support 2,261 new buses.
The plan includes $5.4 billion to modernize the subway signal system, which dates back to the Great Depression. Over the past 15 months, the antiquated system has led to an average of nearly 4,000 train delays a month, according to the M.T.A.
About $7.8 billion will fix decrepit columns, stairs and other structures across transit stations, and add subway platform barriers — to deter falls and shovings onto the tracks — at 100 stations by the end of the year. About $7 billion will be used to make at least 60 more subway stations and six rail stations accessible to people with disabilities.
Billions more will be spent to upgrade power substations, improve dozens of train repair shops and yards, and prevent the worst effects of climate change, by, for example, mitigating flooding along the Hudson River rail line.
The new plan also paves the way for the long-awaited Interborough Express, or IBX, a 14-mile freight corridor that Gov. Hochul hopes will be repurposed to serve residents in parts of Brooklyn and Queens.
A smaller line item in the budget is a reminder of a different challenge for the transit authority. The M.T.A. will spend $1.1 billion to install modern fare gates at 150 stations to prevent fare evasion.
Fare evasion peaked in the spring of 2024, with 14 percent of subway riders and nearly half of bus riders failing to pay. The M.T.A. said it lost close to $800 million in fare and toll evasion last year.
Fare and toll revenue makes up almost 40 percent of the M.T.A.’s $20 billion annual operating budget, a pool of money separate from the capital plan that pays for day-to-day expenses like labor and utilities. The operating budget also covers the cost of financing many agency projects, an expense that could balloon if mismanaged.
The M.T.A. has recently reported progress on reducing fare evasion on trains and buses, and plans to install harder-to-bypass fare gates at 20 stations in 2025 and at another 20 the following year. That is in addition to a range of other strategies, including hiring guards to watch turnstiles, adding fare-enforcement teams at bus stops and maintaining increased police presence throughout the subway.
The challenges ahead
The budget is “incredibly short on details,” especially as it pertains to the M.T.A., said Ana Champeny, the vice president for research at the Citizens Budget Commission, a civic watchdog group.
One of the biggest concerns, she said, is whether the Trump administration will contribute the $14 billion that the M.T.A. has factored into its calculations.
Sean Duffy, the secretary of the U.S. Department of Transportation, has threatened to withhold approvals and funding for transportation projects in the state if Ms. Hochul does not kill New York City’s congestion pricing toll program by May 21.
President Trump has vowed to end congestion pricing, claiming, without evidence, that it is harmful to the local economy.
Such an intervention could force the Legislature to revisit the budget later this year, leaving the M.T.A. with few options.
“You either have to spend less, or go back to the same pots of money,” Ms. Champeny said.
A payroll tax is one of those funding sources that officials have leaned on. Much of the capital plan, about $30 billion, will be paid for with an increase to the payroll mobility tax, an unpopular levy on businesses in New York City and surrounding counties that use mass transit. Companies with a payroll of over $10 million will shoulder a higher rate while the tax on smaller businesses will stay the same or decrease.
The payroll tax was last increased for New York City businesses just two years ago to raise funding for the M.T.A., and there would most likely be limited political will to raise it again.
The increased scrutiny from Washington has, in at least one instance, helped ease the M.T.A.’s budget needs. About $1.2 billion that would have been used for the reconstruction of Pennsylvania Station will instead be applied to other transit projects, now that the Trump administration has declared it will take over the transit hub’s renovation.
Ms. Hochul is also expecting the M.T.A. to come up with $3 billion in “savings” to fund the capital plan, which would require the authority to find up to $150 million in annual recurring savings and borrow against it in the bond market.
In a statement, Avi Small, a spokesman for the governor, said Ms. Hochul “has shown she’ll go toe-to-toe with Donald Trump to fight for every possible dollar of transit funding,” adding that it is up to Republican members of New York’s congressional delegation to fight for their constituents who rely on the M.T.A.
A spokesman for the M.T.A. did not respond to questions about the budget, but said the plan is expected to be discussed at a board meeting on Wednesday.
Stefanos Chen is a Times reporter covering New York City’s transit system.
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