A leading Canadian pollster said the country may see a “record turnout” in a competitive election between Prime Minister Mark Carney‘s Liberal Party and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party on Monday.
Why It Matters
The results of the Canadian election will determine which party has a governing majority and will have key implications for the nation’s policy and approach to key issues. It will also have significance for the United States, as the relationship between the two countries remains strained following President Donald Trump‘s tariff threats and comments about wanting to make Canada the 51st state.
What To Know
Nik Nanos, founder of Canadian polling firm Nanos Research, told CNN on Monday that there is likely to be a high turnout in Canada’s election.
“What we’re going to see in this particular issues is record voter turnout,” he said. “Probably a voter turnout that we haven’t seen since the 1988 free trade election, when Canadians decided to go and vote on whether they want to have free trade with the United States.”
He said voters will be deciding whether they want to “punish the liberals for the last 10 years,” or whether they believe Carney is the best candidate to manage Trump for the next four years.
Tari Ajadi, professor of political science at McGill University, told Newsweek turnout will be “very high” because Canadians believe they may be facing an “exisential threat to sovereignty.”
Trump, who remains unpopular in Canada, is a key factor in the election, Ajadi said. His comments have allowed voters to “unify around rejecting” his proposal to annex Canada and trade war against Ottawa, he said.
“The president of the United States has repeatedly threatened economic warfare on Canada unless they allow the United States to annex the country, so that’s really prompting Canadians to unify around rejecting he possibility this could ever happen,” he said.
He said the election is also unique in that it has mostly become a race between two main parties, while previous elections have historically had three or four parties competing.
“This is a relatively new phenomenon,” he said.
Richard Johnston, professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, told Newsweek that turn-out in in-person advance polls is up about 25 percent relative to 2021, and this is part of a long-term turnout trend reflecting “an interaction between changing sociological patterns (e.g., apartment life, postponed family formation, falling birth rate, more scattered work hours) and institutional facilitation by Elections Canada.”
“The clarity of the existential threat from the Trump administration has concentrated Canadians’ minds,” he said. “Various poll questions highlight this. But I have also been struck from personal conversations but how widespread the anger is. It spans the ideological spectrum.”
What People Are Saying
Speaking at a Friday rally, Canadian Prime Minister Carney said: “President Trump is trying to break us so that America could own us.”
Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservative Party, said during a debate earlier in April: “The Liberal government has weakened our economy with anti-energy laws, red tape and high taxes that have driven $500 billion out of our country into the United States…That weakness threatens our ability to stand up for ourselves.”
What Happens Next
Monday is Election Day in Canada. Whichever party prevails will have the ability to shape the country’s foreign policy over the coming years and will be tasked with navigating a strained relationship with Washington amid Trump’s talks of making Canada a state and tariff threats.
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