Has Trump’s Tariff Fight Passed Its Peak?

Bulls see a Trump pivot coming

On earnings calls and in public appearances, business leaders have found their voice against President Trump’s trade war. Even Elon Musk isn’t holding back.

They join restive investors who — as shown by market rallies after every seeming backtrack on tariffs — are growing more convinced that the White House will ease off its protectionist trade threats rather than risk a big blow to the economy and Americans’ stock portfolios.

The latest: The global relief rally lost some steam on Thursday morning. But a belief that a tariff walk back is coming has gathered strength. Stocks rallied around the world on Wednesday, helped by a report by The Financial Times that Trump may buckle on some auto tariffs, and one in The Wall Street Journal that duties on Chinese goods could be cut drastically.

(That said, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sought to temper expectations on how far the administration would go.)

Speaking of relief, Jay Powell, the Fed chair whom Trump has repeatedly attacked for not lowering interest rates fast enough, has powerful advocates in the administration.

They include Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, who helped persuade Trump not to try to fire Powell, avoiding further market turmoil and a protracted legal fight, The Journal reports.

That’s setting up a bull case that Trump is increasingly restrained, at least when it comes to trade and the Fed:

• The S&P has rallied 4.2 percent over the past two days. Investors have cheered Trump’s softer messaging on import duties this week, seeing it as a sign that he’s more likely to relent on levies than escalate.

• Pushback from C.E.O.s, lobbyists and investors is beginning to hurt business sentiment; that’s not great for markets, but could erode some of Trump’s hard-line position. (Trump was especially rattled when chief executives at Walmart, Target and Home Depot warned him that tariffs could snarl supply chains, raising prices and leading to empty store shelves, according to Axios.)

• Worth watching: Trump’s approval rating has fallen, according to a new Pew Research Center survey, and tariffs are unpopular among Americans.

• More moderate voices, including Bessent, appear to be gaining influence over trade policy, sidelining hawkish advisers like Peter Navarro.

But there’s a bear case for businesses and the markets as well:

• Trump’s trade policy has been deeply erratic, and investors may be getting ahead of themselves. Despite the recent rebound, the S&P 500 is down 4.6 percent since the president’s reciprocal tariffs announcement on April 2.

• Trump hasn’t signed off on any retreat. A persistent fear is that he may be willing to overlook market volatility to achieve his long-stated goal of permanent trade barriers to bolster U.S. manufacturing.

• Tariffs on auto parts are still expected to go into effect no later than May 3. And there’s a threat of new levies on the pharmaceutical and tech industries.

There’s also the complicated reality of trade talks. Trump sees himself as the consummate deal maker, but he and his team face a daunting and even improbable task of racking up quick-win trade agreements. For instance, Britain is in no rush to cut a deal, a sign that countries are slow-rolling negotiations to gain an advantage.

And why not? The markets have been flashing warning signs, especially with the battered dollar.

DEALBOOK WANTS TO HEAR FROM YOU

We’d like to know how the tariffs are affecting your business. Have you changed suppliers? Negotiated lower prices? Paused investments or hiring? Made plans to move manufacturing to the U.S.? Or have the tariffs helped your business? Please let us know what you’re doing.

HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING

The White House is said to weigh lifting sanctions on Nord Stream 2. Ending restrictions on the pipeline, which connects Russian natural gas fields to western Europe, and potentially other energy assets would be part of the Trump administration’s efforts to broker an end to the war in Ukraine, Politico reports. That said, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine has resisted major elements of the U.S. proposal, including ceding vast portions of territory to Moscow, drawing the ire of President Trump.

A potential will by the former C.E.O. of Zappos is reportedly found. A document that turned up in the belongings of a man appears to lay out Tony Hsieh’s wishes for his multimillion-dollar estate, according to The Wall Street Journal. After Hsieh died in a house fire in 2020, his family and others have fought over how to distribute his considerable fortune; beneficiaries listed in the document include various charities; Harvard, his alma mater; and family members.

Former OpenAI workers oppose efforts to shed the company’s nonprofits status. Ten ex-employees joined with several artificial intelligence experts, including the influential researcher Geoffrey Hinton, in urging regulators to block OpenAI’s bid to become a public benefit corporation, according to The Financial Times. The group expressed concern that the move could erode the company’s safety guardrails around its technology, echoing a point raised by Elon Musk, who is also fighting the move.

Musk’s Neuralink is said to be raising funds at an $8.5 billion valuation. The brain-implant company is seeking at least $500 million, and has begun preliminary discussions with potential investors, according to Bloomberg. Neuralink was last valued in 2023 at $3.5 billion, and the company’s device is being tested in humans.

Seen and heard, tariff edition

“We have three airplanes that we had in China ready for delivery. I think we’ve got two of those already back and we’re bringing the third airplane back. They have in fact stopped taking delivery of aircraft due to the tariff environment.”

— Kelly Ortberg, the C.E.O. of Boeing, on CNBC on Wednesday. The company, whose longstanding ties to Beijing have been strained by U.S. tariffs, planned to deliver 50 airplanes to China this year, but may no longer do so.

“The United States was more than just a nation. It’s a brand, it’s a universal brand, whether it’s our culture, our financial strength, our military strength, America rose beyond just being a country — it was like an aspiration for most of the world, and we’re eroding that brand right now.”

— Ken Griffin, the C.E.O. of Citadel, speaking Wednesday at Semafor’s World Economy Summit in Washington. He added: “I’ll tell you what’s not going to happen is people are not going to race to build manufacturing in America, because with the policy volatility, you actually undermine the very goal you’re trying to achieve.”

“If, ultimately, costs are passed to us from those that we buy handsets from, unfortunately, for the customer, we’re going to have to come up with some new ways for them to figure out how to digest that increase in pricing.”

— John Stankey, the C.E.O. of AT&T, on Wednesday’s earnings call explaining that customers may have to pay more for phones.

“One of the important things that we need in our industry is we, first of all, I need clarity, and then I need consistency. Because, as I said, if you know a new vehicle, a brand-new vehicle, comes out every five or six years. To make those investments and to be good stewards of our owner’s capital, I need to understand what the policy is.”

— Mary Barra, C.E.O. of General Motors, speaking Wednesday at the Semafor event, when asked about whether she planned to invest more in U.S. manufacturing.

The web of Trump’s crypto ties

Even before winning re-election, President Trump had made clear that he would treat crypto very differently from former President Joe Biden, promising to unshackle the industry from tight regulation.

He has done so — and then some. The news that he is now offering a private dinner to the top 220 investors in his $TRUMP memecoin is the latest reminder that he won’t just champion the industry, but will also embrace it for personal profit.

“Have Dinner with President Trump and the $TRUMP Community!” read an invitation. “Let the President know how many $TRUMP coins YOU own!”

The event is essentially offering access to the White House in exchange for investing in Trump’s memecoin. Investors responded in droves, with the token’s price shooting up as much as 58 percent after the invite was publicized. $TRUMP’s market capitalization as of Thursday morning stood at nearly $2.4 billion.

(A reminder: Some unsophisticated investors have lost a bundle speculating on highly volatile memecoins, including some who mistimed the $TRUMP trade.)

“They are making the pay-to-play deal explicit,” Corey Frayer, who oversaw crypto policy for the S.E.C. under Biden, told The Times.

Trump himself benefits financially from trading in his memecoin: A business he is linked to owns a big slug of $TRUMP, so he gains a paper profit as the token’s price increases. He and business partners also earn fees whenever the coins are traded, with their windfall amounting to almost $100 million in the weeks after $TRUMP debuted in January.

Trump and his family have other ways to profit from crypto:

• Trump’s sons started a company, World Liberty Financial, that offers the WLFI digital token and, soon, the USD1 stablecoin.

• Trump Media & Technology Group, the president’s social media business, has moved to offer crypto-related investments and announced a partnership with Crypto.com.

• Melania Trump, the first lady, promoted the $Melania memecoin (though its market cap as of Thursday morning was just $441 million).

• Trump signed an executive order to create a national crypto reserve fund that would primarily stockpile Bitcoin; World Liberty Financial has holdings in the cryptocurrency.

• Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., two of the president’s sons, have also said they were investing in a crypto mining venture.

That’s on top of easing oversight of the crypto industry, which donated millions to Trump’s campaign and to other Republican candidates. This week, Paul Atkins was sworn in as the S.E.C.’s chair, installing a regulator who is expected to pursue more crypto-friendly policies than Gary Gensler did under Biden.

The Justice Department has also disbanded its crypto enforcement team, and will restrict its crypto-related focus to matters involving drug cartels or terrorism.

THE SPEED READ

Deals

• Jason Citron stepped down as the C.E.O. of Discord, as the social chat app is said to be preparing to go public; he’ll be replaced by Humam Sakhnini, a former vice chair of Activision. (NYT)

• “Wall Street Missed Warning Signs Ahead of $1 Billion Fintech Implosion” (Bloomberg)

• The law firm Sullivan & Cromwell said it would poach two activist defense lawyers from Vinson & Elkins, as competition for top practitioners in the specialty heats up. (WSJ)

Politics, policy and regulation

• President Trump extended his crackdown on top universities with executive orders targeting international funding and college accreditors. But The Wall Street Journal’s editorial board warned him against challenging Harvard’s tax-exempt status. (WSJ, NYT)

• Rebecca Kelly Slaughter and Alvaro Bedoya, who are challenging their dismissals as F.T.C. commissioners, argue that Trump’s effort to fire them poses a risk to the U.S. economy. (FT)

Best of the rest

• Goldman Sachs shareholders approved a nonbinding resolution endorsing $80 million in bonuses for the Wall Street giant’s C.E.O. and president, despite criticism over the payouts’ size and a lack of connection to the firm’s performance. (Bloomberg)

• “The cost of Trump’s attack on American science” (FT)

• Inside the influential, and politically amorphous podcast hosted by Theo Von. (NYT)

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Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.

Ravi Mattu is the managing editor of DealBook, based in London. He joined The New York Times in 2022 from the Financial Times, where he held a number of senior roles in Hong Kong and London.

Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.

Sarah Kessler is an editor for the DealBook newsletter and writes features on business and how workplaces are changing.

Michael J. de la Merced has covered global business and finance news for The Times since 2006.

Lauren Hirsch covers Wall Street for The Times, including M&A, executive changes, board strife and policy moves affecting business.

Edmund Lee covers the media industry as it grapples with changes from Silicon Valley. Before joining The Times he was the managing editor at Vox Media’s Recode.

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