Pope Francis died at the age of 88 on Easter Monday, meaning a conclave will soon be convened to choose a new leader of the Catholic Church — a process that could prove decisive in either cementing or reversing the Argentine’s reformist legacy.
Proceedings are expected to begin two to three weeks after the pope’s funeral, when the College of Cardinals will gather in the Vatican’s Sistine Chapel to launch the highly secretive process of electing a new pope. In theory, any baptized male Roman Catholic is eligible for the papacy, but for the past 700 years, the pope has always been chosen from among the cardinals.
Picking a winner in advance is not easy. During the last conclave in 2013, Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio was far from a favorite to succeed Pope Benedict XVI. Yet he became Pope Francis after 24 hours and five rounds of voting.
Bookmakers and Vatican watchers had already begun speculating about potential successors as the pontiff’s health declined.
The stakes for selecting a new pope are unusually high. The next pontiff will inherit a deeply divided Church, grappling with ideological tensions over issues such as LGBTQ+ inclusion and clerical abuse, while also navigating a rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape, riven by territorial and cultural conflict.
Here are some of the key names you are likely to hear in the weeks ahead:
The Italian comeback
Is it time for the Italians to get the papacy back? Out of 266 popes, 217 have hailed from Italy — but the last three have come from outside the Vatican’s backyard.
Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, the Vatican’s secretary of state and Francis’ No. 2 since 2013, might be seen as the natural successor to Francis.
Originally from Veneto, Parolin, as one of Francis’s close circle of cardinal advisors, was tasked with carrying out the pope’s reforms, and has been a driving force in diplomacy.
He has played a crucial role in reestablishing relations between the Holy See and China, and signing an agreement to appoint Chinese bishops jointly with Beijing. A moderate, seen as progressive by his critics, he assumed an outsized role during the Pope’s illness, leading the prayer session for his recovery, which was seen by some as an unseemly campaign bid.
Parolin is, however, seen as overly bureaucratic and lacking the charisma and common touch of the late pope. This could prove an Achilles heel, alongside a lack of pastoral experience.
Some are already hoping to wreck any bid by Parolin and, depending on whom you speak with, he’s seen as either a Trojan horse for progressivism or conservatism.
The College of Cardinals Report, a review of cardinals’ positions compiled by conservative journalists Edward Pentin and Diane Montagna, casts him as a “subtler” progressive able to put a mainstream spin on Francis’ radicalism. A more progressive-minded Church official, meanwhile, told POLITICO that Parolin is “a very humble and a very gentle person but because of his gentleness people don’t see he’s much more conservative than the pope.” The official suggested Francis had begun to marginalize Parolin amid the “whispers” around his possible conclave bid. Another Italian possibility is Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, from Lombardy, who is Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem. The 60-year-old could well benefit from a nostalgia among fellow Italian cardinals about having one of their countrymen back in the top job. Pizzaballa — who has lived in the Holy Land for more than three decades, speaks Hebrew and has admitted that he talks to Hamas “by necessity” — is an authority in the Middle East, which could be an advantage.
Seen as frank-talking, he rose quickly through the ranks thanks to views aligned with Francis on protecting the environment and inter-religious dialogue. He has largely stayed away from public disputes in the church over church doctrine, which makes him an unknown quantity but conservatives are not overly hostile to him as he is supportive of the Latin mass.
Still, he is somewhat young to be pope, as cardinals are reluctant to elect a leader who is likely to stick around for several decades.
The non-European options
Francis was the first non-European to lead the Catholic Church since the Syrian Gregory III in the 8th century — and the first pope elected from the Americas.
If the College of Cardinals opts again for a non-European, Philippine Cardinal Luis Tagle may be a frontrunner. The 67-year-old former Archbishop of Manila shares Francis’s focus on social justice and the fight against poverty. He was a vocal critic of the extrajudicial killings which took place in his country under former President Rodrigo Duterte, during which several thousands died according to the prosecution by the International Criminal Court, where he is now facing trial.
The Church could also make history if it elects its first African pope in the modern era. Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, once considered a favorite during the 2013 conclave, is again being discussed. Now 76, Turkson was appointed by Benedict XVI to lead the Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace. His election would mark a watershed moment, but controversies may hinder his chances. In a 2013 interview, he suggested child sexual abuse was less prevalent in Africa due to traditional cultural protections. A year earlier, he apologized for showing a video warning of Islam’s spread in Europe during a Synod of Bishops.
Francis significantly shifted the geographical balance of the College of Cardinals by appointing more cardinals from the poorer regions historically underrepresented in the Church’s highest echelons, which could have an important role in the selection process for the next pope.
As a result of this, communication has become more difficult for many cardinals since Francis abolished their regular meetings in Rome. To an extent, that has empowered the so-called Curial cardinals who live in the Eternal City and can talk to one another more easily. Some say that could give a leg-up to the Italian cardinals, who account for a majority of the clerics in Rome. But these cardinals may also turn on each other now they no longer need to present a united front around Francis.
Additionally, Francis’ moves to make it more difficult for the clergy to convene in Rome had the effect of fomenting new power centers, especially among the fast-growing Catholic populations in developing economies, with powerful bishops’ conferences in Asia, Africa and Latin America, the high-level church official quoted above told POLITICO. Influential leaders include Congolese Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu and Brazilian Cardinal Jaime Spengler, president of the Brazilian bishops’ conference, which represents the largest Catholic congregation in the world.
“The Curia seems strong but when the leaders of different continents arrive in conclave they’ll have their say,” the Church official said. Rome is no longer the “point of convergence” for ecclesiastical scheming, they added.
These blocs are able to communicate with each other with ease and will present a challenge to those looking for a European successor to Francis. Many European cardinals may also likely support figures from Asia, Africa and Latin America.
The archconservatives
During his 12 years span as pope, Francis infuriated the conservative wing of the Catholic Church which became increasingly radical — particularly in the U.S.
The de facto leader of this conservative opposition was 76-year-old Cardinal Raymond Burke, who repeatedly clashed with Francis over his supposedly “woke” agenda and deemed the Church “too feminized.” He is, however, seen as more of a figurehead of the conservatives rather than a winning papal contender.
Another long-serving figure, Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő, appears to be a more likely candidate. Erdő was mentioned as a potential successor in 2013 and is praised by Hungary’s right-wing Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Erdő represents a more traditionalist, Europe-focused vision of the Church and remains of interest to conservatives looking for a papal course correction.
The conservatives’ chances depend on the composition of the College of Cardinals. At a superficial level, Francis appointed 110 of the 138 cardinals who will be eligible to elect his successor, making it unlikely that there will be a snapback to a more hardline conservatism.
However, several of Francis’ appointments were cardinals from developing nations with a more conservative outlook, and others may shift allegiances away from his liberalism after his death.
As ever, the path from here to the white smoke will be winding.
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