Representative Elise Stefanik, a leading Republican ally of President Trump, is considering running for governor of New York in 2026, according to three people directly familiar with her thinking.
Ms. Stefanik, a six-term congresswoman, had been poised to become Mr. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations. But in late March, the president asked her to withdraw because of concern about how her open seat might affect Republicans’ minuscule voting margin in the House.
The congresswoman’s allies said on Wednesday that in the weeks since, Republicans in Washington and New York had urged her to challenge Gov. Kathy Hochul, and she is taking steps to explore that possibility. They believe that Ms. Hochul, a Democrat, is vulnerable and argue that Ms. Stefanik could help put the state in play.
A spokesman for Ms. Stefanik declined to comment on Wednesday.
The congresswoman, 40, stoked speculation about a potential candidacy in a speech Tuesday night as she accepted an award from New York Republicans at the Plaza Hotel. Afterward, she told NY1 that she was “honored” to be considered for the role but did not commit to running.
“We have a once-in-a-generation opportunity to fire Kathy Hochul once and for all,” Ms. Stefanik said. “For so long, Democrats have had one-party rule in Albany, and it has caused a decaying of our state.”
The people familiar with her thinking, who insisted on anonymity to discuss private conversations, said Ms. Stefanik would also consider taking another role in Mr. Trump’s administration (the president has suggested he might find her another post) or maintaining her leadership position in the House. Others pointed out that she had seriously considered a run for governor in 2022 and decided to pass.
Any race would be an uphill battle for Ms. Stefanik. Democrats have dominated New York politics for a decade, maintain a large voter registration advantage and expect to be able to capitalize on a midterm backlash against Mr. Trump, and by association, Ms. Stefanik.
But Republicans have slowly been making gains in the Empire State — enough to conclude they could have a chance. The party’s 2022 nominee, Lee Zeldin, came within six points of beating Ms. Hochul.
Since then, Ms. Hochul has struggled to improve New York voters’ dim view of her and her accomplishments. Fellow Democrats are mulling their own primary challenges to her, including Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado and Representative Ritchie Torres.
Ms. Stefanik is not the only Republican considering running against Ms. Hochul. Representative Mike Lawler, a Hudson Valley congressman who represents a Democratic-leaning district, and Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, have also teased potential runs.
If she ran, though, Ms. Stefanik would most likely become the front-runner, with national name recognition, a close relationship with Mr. Trump and a track record of outperforming him in her sprawling North Country district. She is also popular with Republicans in her home state, where she has dedicated considerable resources to congressional swing races.
Gerard Kassar, the chairman of the state Conservative Party, called her “well qualified, well known, and a consummate New Yorker,” and said that he would welcome her entry into the race.
If she was to run for governor, it would be a sharp turnabout for Ms. Stefanik, who only recently appeared to be cruising to Senate confirmation at United Nations ambassador. She had even held a goodbye tour for herself in her House district.
Fellow Republicans, though, became worried that her resignation from the House would tighten the party’s already narrow margin there and potentially jeopardize their hold on her right-leaning House seat. Ms. Stefanik agreed to Mr. Trump’s request that she withdraw.
“She is being embraced by her constituents with open arms,” said Vince Casale, a Republican consultant who is based in upstate New York. “It would make total sense that she is thinking about what’s next. She had been ready to go.”
Nicholas Fandos is a Times reporter covering New York politics and government.
Benjamin Oreskes is a reporter covering New York State politics and government for The Times.
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