Fewer and fewer people are seeking asylum in , according to reports in the nation’s media, but experts say the data should be interpreted with caution.
On the weekend, the German newspaper Welt am Sonntag reported as yet unreleased data showing France received the EU’s most applications for asylum — 40,871 — ahead of Spain (39,318) and Germany (37,387) in the first three months of 2025.
Though that data is unconfirmed by the EU Agency for Asylum (EUAA), a decline in applications to Germany has been evident in recent reports published by the bloc and the country’s own Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF).
This week, BAMF reported 10,647 applications filed in Germany for March, the lowest for any month since the COVID-19 pandemic began.
Numbers show a downward trend
Germany has long been the EU’s top receiver of asylum seekers and remains so, according to the bloc’s most recent annual analysis, though applications were down by a third in 2024 compared to 2023.
Across the , more than 1 million applications were received in 2024,
This includes a sustained downward trend in applications since October, largely due to fewer applications from Syrian, Afghan and Turkish nationals.
In a statement, the EUAA told DW it was “aware of the report in Welt am Sonntag. As the Agency doesn’t comment on unauthorized disclosures we can’t comment on, or confirm, the data being reported in German media.”
‘Not a choice’
People may be forced to flee their country of origin and seek asylum for many reasons, including , conflict, threats to physical safety, persecution and climate change.
“It’s not a choice to become a refugee or asylum seeker,” said Sarah Wolff, a migration and asylum policy professor at Leiden University in the Netherlands.
Nor, Wolff said, do asylum seekers “shop around” for different countries to seek asylum.
Usually, asylum seekers have very little information about potential destinations when they flee, and usually will try to find safe haven in countries near their point of origin.
“So, Europe is not necessarily the first destination because it’s difficult [to get there],” Wolff said.
The presence of familiar cultural communities — diaspora — is often one of the most important considerations when applying for asylum. A 2024 study from Southampton University, UK, identified “social networks” as the strongest pull factor for those seeking asylum.
And while official figures show fewer first-time asylum applications are being made in Europe, they do not give a complete insight into what is a complex issue.
A declining trend? Numbers aren’t the full picture
While improved circumstances in places that have been historic sources of asylum seeker applications could be one explanation, there are others.
“It’s, really, multifactorial,” Wolff said.
Take Afghanistan, where applications to the EU dropped substantially in 2024.
“It’s not that they don’t want to come and apply for asylum, it’s that they cannot flee the country anymore. It’s becoming increasingly difficult.”
Backlogs or restrictions on application processing or decision-making can also impact statistics and mask reasons for sudden declines in data.
Syria historically accounts for the largest share of asylum applications in Germany, and these have declined in recent months. At the same time, the overthrow of the Assad regime led to the German government pausing applications from Syrian nationals.
So, it is unclear whether a potentially more stable political situation is seeing fewer Syrians leave their country, or if German policies are dissuading applicants.
“The impact of the regime change on the number of Syrians arriving in Germany may not be fully understandable in scale and in depth until we have waited a bit more time,” Alberto-Horst Neidhard, head of the European Diversity and Migration program at the European Policy Centre, told DW.
Neidhard said reported data is better viewed in terms of longer-term trends rather than a month-to-month dip.
“We have seen ups and downs in past years which warrant some caution, particularly when it comes to asylum statistics,” Neidhard said.
Not a marker of safety
A recent decline in asylum requests within individual countries, or across a regional bloc like the EU, does not mean fewer people are seeking asylum.
Local policy changes, such as a country declaring it will not process applications, , , or public within a potential destination country might discourage people, particularly those displaced by violence and persecution, from seeking asylum.
“They have to go through lots of different situations including some dangerous ones, invest considerable amounts of money and then also navigate the different kinds of legal complexities in order to reach their destination countries,” Neidhard said.
As well as being expensive, the process of seeking asylum also takes time.
Ultimately, asylum data should be considered in historic terms and as part of longer-term trends, Neidhard said.
“In historical terms and in relation to the overall population numbers, these are generally consistent with the numbers we have seen in the past,” he said.
“Unless there are some truly upsetting events like the pandemic, for example, I don’t think that we will see a further significant reduction in [asylum] numbers.”
“It is also important to avoid the expectation in the public that irregular migration can be brought down to zero, or that reducing asylum applications is an indication of how safe our world is.”
Edited by: Andreas Illmer
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