Carbon leakage: A growing concern for Europe
The Clean Industrial Deal and the Omnibus Package seek to strengthen industrial competitiveness. Ensuring fair competition is also an objective of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). However, the CBAM will not be fully implemented until 2026, while cement imports from Ukraine to Poland could exceed one million tonnes annually as early as 2025. That’s why the European Commission, together with the European Parliament, should act now to protect the competitiveness of Poland’s and Europe’s industries and safeguard thousands of jobs.
“According to an EY report, Impact of the Cement Industry on Poland’s Economy, Polish cement plants spent over 224 million złoty on CO2 emission allowances in 2021 alone. Meanwhile, across the eastern border the cost was zero. Cement imported from Ukraine to the EU has a higher carbon footprint, up to 850 kilograms of CO2 per 1,000 kilograms of cement, further increased by long-distance transportation,” says Krzysztof Kieres, president of the Polish Cement Association.
The EU predicted possible carbon leakage over 20 years ago. The 2003 Emissions Trading Directive highlighted this risk, notably for cement production. More than two decades later, the doomsday scenario is becoming reality.
Eastern cement floods Europe
Cement from Ukraine is flowing into the EU. In 2024 alone, Ukraine exported 1,713,000 tonnes of cement to the region — not only to Poland but also to Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. CEMBUREAU (European Cement Industry Association) data further confirms the growing influx. Meanwhile, one private plant in Ivano-Frankivsk is providing nearly two million tonnes per year (data from 2024) to the EU and is likely to raise its production capacity to over four million tonnes per year.
There has been a sharp rise in exports to Poland. According to the Analytical Centre of the Tax Administration Chamber in Warsaw, cement imports from Ukraine to Poland have increased by nearly 3,000 percent over the past five years (2019-24).
Polish cement plants provide jobs for over 4,000 people, with another 24,000 employed throughout the supply chain. Across Europe, more than 50,000 people work in the cement industry. Without remedial measures, thousands could lose their jobs, cement production will move outside the EU and the construction industry will become dependent on non-EU imports. Europe will lose another pillar of its economic, construction, defense and citizen security.
Cement and concrete are essential building materials, and especially for Poland, as an EU border country, they play a strategic role in the East Shield — a flagship project for EU collective security — as well as in other defense initiatives, including shelters.
Stringent climate regulations, soaring emission allowance prices and rising energy costs are mounting challenges for Polish cement plants, the EU cement sector as a whole, and other energy-intensive industries. In addition, Poland faces an even greater threat: as an EU border country, it stands as the first line of defense against the influx of eastern products manufactured — like Ukrainian cement — without CO2-related costs.
Workers and unions fear for the future
There is no alternative technology for cement production, meaning that the European cement industry must bear significant costs under the Emissions Trading System. Additionally, the industry invests heavily in carbon capture and storage technologies to meet the targets of CEMBUREAU’s Roadmap: a 37 percent reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030, 78 percent by 2040 and full carbon neutrality by 2050. The uncontrolled flood of cement from the East, North Africa and Turkey is another blow to the sector’s competitiveness — and survival.
These concerns are echoed by workers and labor unions advocating for industry protection. During a debate called Construction Like Agriculture in 2024 in Warsaw, Adam Golec from NSZZ Solidarnosc trade union said “we’re worried about how rising cement production costs in Poland and imports will affect employment.” The debate’s title refers to the surge of Ukrainian agricultural products that severely affected Polish farmers, raising fears about a similar crisis in the cement industry. The media are sounding the alarm about a repeat scenario: cement influx from the East.
Local governments call for cement industry protection
Polish city and municipal leaders call for protecting the cement sector. It generates substantial tax revenue, is a major employer and creates jobs. This issue was raised during the debate Cement Industry Builds Poland’s Economy in 2025 in Warsaw, by Łukasz Gryn, mayor of Nowiny, which is home to a cement plant that is the largest local taxpayer, with its taxes funding many infrastructure projects.
EY data further highlights the industry’s significance: Poland’s cement sector contributes 3.2 billion złoty annually to public finances, generating 5.1 billion złoty for the economy. Local governments cannot afford to lose this revenue.
Will the European Commission save cement plants?
With EU-Ukraine trade agreement negotiations underway, the cement industry is urging the Commission to include protective measures for European producers in the final deal. The proposal calls for a tariff quota on cement from Ukraine and an annual limit on imports to Poland based on the three-year average, which is 380,000 tonnes. Additional imports would be subject to tariffs to level the playing field, as non-EU production incurs no CO2-related costs. Furthermore, Ukrainian cement plants have no incentives to modernize and reduce emissions.
“We absolutely do not question the need to aid Ukraine’s economy or the principles of free trade under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area. However, we also value healthy competition — as long as it is based on equal terms. Unfortunately, that is not the case here. Ukrainian production is not subject to EU climate regulations, lowering costs at the expense of the environment. This puts industries like cement manufacturing at risk. We urge the European Commission to act before it’s too late,” says Kieres, emphasizing that import quotas are a “do-or-die game” for the cement industry in Poland and the EU.
In 2023, following a large influx of agricultural products from Ukraine to Poland, Slovakia and Romania, farmers demanded strong market and job protections. In response, the EU-Ukraine trade agreement imposed tariff quotas on certain agricultural products. Now, in a comparable situation, the cement industry is calling on the European Commission to implement a similar solution: tariff quotas on cement imported from Ukraine to Poland — before it’s too late and the industry faces collapse.
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