The world’s youngest nation faces the threat of war yet again.
This month, a United Nations helicopter was attacked during an evacuation mission in a remote area in South Sudan, with one member of its crew killed and two others seriously injured. The flight was rescuing wounded government soldiers who had clashed with an armed group in Upper Nile State in the northeast. A day later, the United States said it was removing all nonemergency government employees from the country, citing security threats.
The attack underscored the shaky stability of the East African nation, almost a decade and a half after it gained independence amid hope and fanfare. The latest clashes, and the preceding political tensions, have regional observers fearing the collapse of a peace deal that was agreed on seven years ago.
Here’s what to know.
Who’s fighting?
The main parties involved in the latest clashes are the South Sudanese national military, under the government of President Salva Kiir, and an opposition force known as the White Army, which is believed to be allied with Vice President Riek Machar.
Mr. Kiir and Mr. Machar led the two warring sides of the civil war that broke out in 2013, ending with a fragile peace agreement in 2018. The deal demilitarized the capital, Juba, moved to ensure that both sides shared earnings from oil exports and returned Mr. Machar as vice president.
Yet deep-seated political and ethnic tensions have endured, as have militias and armed factions with shifting loyalties. Clashes are frequently characterized by interethnic violence, particularly between Mr. Kiir’s Dinka and Mr. Machar’s Nuer ethnic groups. Recurring violence has precipitated large-scale displacement, plunged the country into economic free-fall and sharply raised the price of food and fuel.
What led to the latest escalation?
Mr. Machar’s political coalition has accused the government of targeting his allies in February, including by launching a large-scale operation against his supporters in Upper Nile State. At least 22 political and military leaders allied with Mr. Machar have been arrested, with the whereabouts of some of them still unknown, Human Rights Watch has said.
In early March, the government accused the White Army of attacking and capturing a military garrison in the northern town of Nasir along the border with Ethiopia. The authorities in Juba responded by arresting several of Mr. Machar’s allies, including the deputy chief of the army, Gen. Gabriel Duop Lam, and the petroleum minister, Puot Kang Chol.
The U.N. helicopter in Upper Nile came under fire on March 7, despite assurances of safe passage, according to the chief of the U.N. South Sudan mission, Nicholas Haysom. In addition to a member of the helicopter crew, the attack left several military officers dead, including a general, the United Nations said.
The latest tensions have put the delicate government at risk of collapsing, with opposition groups describing the arrests as a sign of Mr. Kiir’s reluctance to honor the peace agreement and his determination to maintain control over the country’s political landscape. Presidential elections, now scheduled for next year, have repeatedly been delayed, causing frustration among opposition factions.
“South Sudan is one major escalation away from slipping into a new civil war,” said Alan Boswell, the Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group. “Should the government collapse or large-scale ethnic violence break out, the country could fragment.”
Have U.S. aid cuts affected the situation?
The cuts in American aid are already having a dire impact on the humanitarian situation in South Sudan. The United States spent $760 million on programs, including emergency food assistance and health, in the country in 2023.
Aid groups say the dearth of humanitarian aid is worsening food insecurity, and the cessation of health programs may spread diseases like cholera, malaria and tuberculosis even further. In January, the United Nations said that violence, bureaucratic impediments and cash extortion of its contractors were impeding effective delivery of aid, including in Upper Nile State.
What role does Uganda play?
Uganda said last week that its special forces had deployed to Juba to “secure” the South Sudanese capital. The Ugandan military chief said in a social media post that his nation recognized Mr. Kiir as the country’s only president.
“Any move against him is a declaration of war against Uganda,” he said, adding, “All those who commit that crime will learn what it means.”
Officials in Juba have not publicly confirmed the presence of the troops. But the Ugandan governing party’s parliamentary caucus endorsed the deployment, describing it as a “necessary intervention for peace enforcement to protect lives, restore stability and prevent further escalation of conflict.”
Uganda’s longtime president, Yoweri Museveni, has deployed troops to South Sudan several times in the past to prop up Mr. Kiir’s government. Yusuf Serunkuma, a researcher and scholar at Makerere University in Uganda, said that reports of a decline in Mr. Kiir’s health meant he needed Mr. Museveni’s backing even more. (South Sudan’s presidency has repeatedly denied assertions that Mr. Kiir has health problems.)
A civil war in neighboring Sudan that has killed tens of thousands and displaced many more has also disrupted South Sudan’s oil exports, limiting Mr. Kiir’s ability to fund his patronage network, observers say.
“Salva Kiir has accused Riek Machar of planning to overthrow him in a coup — an old accusation since the founding of the country,” Mr. Serunkuma said. But with the Ugandan deployment, he added, “They’ll probably sustain the status quo.”
Regional observers worry that the Ugandan deployment and an eventual state collapse could converge with the war to the north in Sudan and engulf the region in further conflict.
What happens next?
The United Nations and regional bodies have called on the South Sudanese leaders to de-escalate the crisis and resolve issues through dialogue. Leaders from the eight-nation Intergovernmental Authority on Development called last week for the release of detained officials “unless credible evidence warrants legal proceedings.”
The U.N. Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan also said that all parties should work to make the changes necessary to complete a transitional period ahead of elections, including by overhauling the Constitution.
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