President Donald Trump‘s past week in the Oval Office has been dotted with notable turbulence as economists and voters have sounded the alarm on recession fears, while analysts have wondered if a remarkable foreign policy announcement surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war could result in blight or victory for his second term.
Why It Matters
Trump swept into office touting a mandate and promising a flurry of changes and he has attempted to deliver with a number of executive orders and actions in the early days of his second White House stint.
His first weeks in office were met with strong approval ratings but his economic moves, particularly his issuance of tariffs, and handling of the Russia-Ukraine war have not polled as well recently. If his ratings decline further, it could hamper his political clout.
What To Know
This week, the president’s back-and-forth with other world leaders regarding tariffs has triggered increased anxiety surrounding the U.S. economy amid fears of a potential recession.
Reacting with trepidation to a potential trade war, the U.S. stock market had its worst day in 2025 on Monday, with the S&P 500 falling 2.7 percent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 2.08 percent, and the tech-focused Nasdaq dropping 4 percent, its worst day since September 2022.
On Tuesday, Trump was asked about the state of the economy, to which he replied in part, “I’m very optimistic about the country.”
Trump’s tariff threats were met with immediate backlash from Canada’s side, as Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to not “back down.”
But those tensions cooled when Ford, in a joint statement with U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, said on X, formerly Twitter, on Tuesday: “Today, United States Secretary of Commerce @howardlutnick and Premier of Ontario Doug Ford had a productive conversation about the economic relationship between the United States and Canada.”
The statement continued, “Secretary Lutnick agreed to officially meet with Premier Ford in Washington on Thursday, March 13 alongside the United States Trade Representative to discuss a renewed USMCA ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline. In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 per cent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota.”
After news that Ontario would suspend the 25 percent surcharge, Trump halted doubling the tariff on Canadian metals—including steel and aluminum—from 25 percent to 50 percent. The 25 percent tariff still went into effect on Wednesday.
In a new CNN poll released on Wednesday, Trump’s approval rating regarding the economy took a hit. Amid the looming threats of a tariff war, 56 percent of Americans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy compared to 44 percent who approve.
Trump also threatened France on Thursday with a 200 percent tariff on all alcoholic products including wine and champagne.
As Trump’s economic agenda sparks worries, he has also made notable moves in foreign policy this week. It was announced this week that the administration had worked alongside Ukraine to carve out a 30-day ceasefire deal amid the country’s war with Russia. The proposed deal, however, is only a starting point and not a guaranteed truce.
On Wednesday, the Kremlin responded to the news: “Look, you are getting a little ahead of yourself, we don’t want to do that,” spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said of the ceasefire, according to Russian news outlet RIA Novosti.
Peskov continued, “Yesterday, when talking to the press, both [Secretary of State Marco] Rubio and [national security adviser Mike] Waltz said that they would pass on to us detailed information about the essence of the conversations that took place in Jeddah through various diplomatic channels. First, we need to get that information.”
Russian President Vladimir Putin then said on Thursday that Russia agrees in principle to the deal, but that key terms would still need to be negotiated.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised Trump after news of the deal on Tuesday, saying on X in part that he was “grateful” for “constructive conversation between our teams.”
Zelensky and Trump have had a fiery relationship so far during Trump’s second term, as an Oval Office argument led media outlets for days.
In a Quinnipiac poll released Thursday, 58 percent of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the White House meeting with Zelensky. But Democrats and Republicans are split on the issue, as 95 percent of Democrats disapprove of Trump’s actions compared to 77 percent of Republicans who approve.
The poll also shows that 55 percent of registered voters disapprove of the way Trump is handling the war in Ukraine, compared to 38 percent who approve. The survey was conducted from March 6 to March 10 among 1,198 “self-identified registered voters nationwide” with a 2.8 percent margin of error.
Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia, told Newsweek via email on Wednesday that Ukraine was pressured to agree to the ceasefire deal.
“Trump pressured Ukraine to sign a ceasefire by cutting military aid and intelligence assistance,” McFaul said. “Simultaneously, he has given Putin all sorts of concessions—Ukrainian land, no NATO membership for Ukraine, no US in Ukraine as peacekeepers, hints of lifting sanctions, votes with Russia at UN—without getting anything in return yet. I have seen no evidence that Trump has pressured Putin to give up anything yet.”
When asked if the ceasefire deal could ease backlash targeted at Trump labeling him a sympathizer to Putin, former acting CIA Director John McLaughlin told Newsweek via email: “It all depends on Putin’s response to the 30 days cease fire proposal.” McLaughlin is currently a professor of practice at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and former deputy and acting director of the intelligence agency.
Continuing, McLaughlin said: “If he accepts it without conditions, it could be the start of a serious negotiation. If he demands still more concessions from the Ukrainians, whose ambitions the Trump administration has already trimmed—and if we then push the Ukrainians still further—it will do little to diminish the sense that the administration favors Putin.”
What People Are Saying
Cristian Tiu, chair and associate finance professor at the University at Buffalo, told Newsweek Wednesday via email: “The CBOE market volatility index (VIX) is up more than 68% today relative to the last value before January 20, indicating that markets are more nervous. However, to illustrate a lighter perspective, its value of 26.92 yesterday, while elevated versus before January 20, is relatively modest comparing with values of over 80, eg recorded on 2020-03-16, so while the markets are more spooked, it seems that some confidence in the ‘business as usual’ plans still exists. And sure enough, massive tariffs seemed to roll back and end in more careful negotiations thus far.”
Mark Williams, master finance lecturer at Boston University, told Newsweek via email when asked if a full-scale recession is on the horizon: “Trump’s reckless economic policies of inflationary tariffs could rapidly tip the US economy into recession. Higher prices for raw and finished produces have reduced demand and pushed estimated GDP growth into negative territory. Recently the Atlanta Fed slashed its 2025 Q1 GDP forecast from growth to contraction. Based on the rate of economic deterioration, if Trump fails to soften his policy stance, the US could experience a full recession by June 2025.
Trump’s high tariffs could also push Canada, Mexico and China into recession. Our trade partners to the north and south are particularly vulnerable as 80 percent of what they produce is sold to the US. If this event were to happen, it would deepen the severity and length of the US recession.”
What Happens Next
Trump’s first 100 days in office continue to unfold and on the immediate horizon, the president appears to be focused on the economy.
The post Trump’s Turbulent Week With the Economy and Foreign Policy: Analysts React appeared first on Newsweek.
