U.S. President Donald Trump’s on-again, off-again approach to tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico has rattled markets while placing historic strains on relations between the United States and its two largest trading partners.
Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on aluminum and steel, which took effect on Wednesday, hit Canada particularly hard, as the country is the biggest foreign supplier of both metals to the United States. Ottawa quickly responded with 25 percent retaliatory tariffs on nearly $30 billion worth of U.S. goods.
Quebec alone provides over half of America’s aluminum, and the Canadian province of more than 8.5 million people, which counts the United States as its top trading partner, is keeping a particularly close eye on how the escalating trade war is developing.
Foreign Policy sat down with Quebec’s minister of international relations, Martine Biron, on Tuesday to discuss Trump’s tariffs, his divisive calls for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state, and where the United States and its northern neighbor go from here.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
Foreign Policy: Between Trump’s tariffs and his rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state, is it fair to say that we’re witnessing the lowest point in U.S.-Canada relations in modern history?
Martine Biron: I wouldn’t go that far at this moment. First, regarding the 51st state, it will never, never, never happen. Quebecers and Canadians are proud of their identity, economics, and culture—and it will never happen.
Regarding economic relations—it’s a weird time. It’s gloomy weather. There are dark clouds in the sky. And it’s been a long time since there have been dark clouds like this.
Quebec, in the international economy, has an exchange of $250 billion a year. Half of these exchanges are with the United States. The United States is our main partner. And Quebec is important for Americans with its steel, aluminum, critical and strategic minerals, semiconductors, hydroelectricity, and energy. It’s a relationship that’s been going on for years and years and years.
We’ve had good times and less good times because protectionism has been in the air for a long time in the U.S. But in the past five to 10 years, the debates have polarized.
Yes, it’s difficult at the present with the arrival of the Trump administration, and mainly because everything is uncertain and the speech is a little bit chaotic.
There are two things that are important to know. First, tariffs will hurt all of us: Americans, Canadians, and Quebecers. Inflation, unemployment, recession—we don’t want that. We don’t want tariffs.
But at the same time, our premier in Quebec, François Legault, is a businessman as well. He keeps a cool head. And we are very careful in what we’re doing, because we have allies in the United States and we’ve been doing business for so many years. One day there will be an after. So we need to honor our contracts, and to show that we are trustworthy as we have always been with the United States.
FP: Looking beyond the immediate economic impact and strains on U.S.-Canada relations that Trump’s policies and rhetoric are inducing, what are the potential long-term consequences of creating so much uncertainty and targeting a close ally like this?
MB: First of all, we need to focus on facts, not on tweets. There’s tweets, there’s a declaration, and then there’s another declaration. Let’s focus on facts. When the tariffs are there, we’re going to see what’s going to happen and see what we’re going to do.
But at this moment, the friendly relationship that we’ve always had with Americans is more transactional. It’s colder. And I don’t know what the consequences will be, but there will be an after, and we will continue to partner with Americans. And I think that Americans will want to continue to partner with Quebecers.
We’re going to work with our allies and with our friends. We have friends in the Democratic Party and in the Republican Party, and we have friends in the business community, and everybody’s doing their lobbying so we can continue to do business in a very healthy environment.
FP: Quebec supplies roughly 60 percent of all aluminum imports into the United States. How concerning are Trump’s aluminum and steel tariffs for Quebec’s economy, and how damaging do you expect them to be for business and consumers in the United States?
MB: About 160,000 jobs in Quebec are at risk. And it’s going to harm the economy of the United States. It’s going to be difficult. Aluminum and steel are important to the car industry.
I don’t know how Americans will be able to supply aluminum. Without Quebec’s aluminum, it’s Chinese aluminum. So, at the end of the day there will be a choice to make. And at the same time, we are working on other relations and the diversification of our economy.
FP: Is it possible that this rough period in relations with the U.S. could lead Canada to strengthen ties with other big trade partners such as China?
MB: I’m not going to speak for Canada. We’re in the middle of a changing government. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is resigning and Mark Carney just got elected as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. There will be a call for a general election probably in the next few weeks or so.
There will be a new government in the spring, and we’ll see what kind of foreign policy will be in the making then. At the same time, we’ll watch how the Trump administration welcomes the new government.
But for Quebec, we did more business with the United States in recent years for two reasons. There was an economic boom in the United States, and in Europe the economy was laying back because of Ukraine. And we’re neighbors, so it was easy to do it. At this moment, with the tariffs, in Quebec we’re sending the message that we’re going to lower the dependency toward America and work more to open the markets between Canadian provinces and work more with Europe.
FP: Trump has justified the tariffs against Canada and Mexico by pointing to issues such as the flow of fentanyl into the United States. But U.S. customs agents seized just 43 pounds of fentanyl at the Canadian border in the last fiscal year. Are Trump’s justifications for this brewing trade war reasonable?
MB: In Quebec, for a long time we asked for better security on the border. The federal government decided to invest more to secure the border, and we’re happy about this. But on fentanyl, we think it’s unjustified and not true. For Quebecers, it’s tough to hear that. They don’t like to hear unjustified declarations about themselves.
FP: There’s a lot of discussion in Europe these days regarding how the continent needs to take greater responsibility for its own security, which is directly tied to the view that it can no longer rely on the United States to have its back. Canada obviously has different security concerns from Europe, but do you expect that the Trump era—and his “America First” approach to foreign affairs—will lead to similar conversations in Ottawa on the future of Canadian security?
MB: Yes, I think so. For NATO members, it’s important that everybody takes this responsibility. We’ve seen Europe doing it, and probably in Canada we’re going to follow up as well.
FP: Can the U.S.-Canada relationship be repaired after all of this?
MB: I don’t know. My crystal ball is not clear. It’s not clear for many reasons, because we’re going to have a new government in Ottawa. Is it going to work well with Trump? We don’t know.
We’re going to revise the USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement]. It’s supposed to be revised in 2026. Let’s see what happens there. What does Trump want, and how can we manage the partnership?
It’s difficult to know what’s going to happen next, but it’s not a good period for our relationship. Let me put it this way: People in Quebec aren’t lining up to come and invest in America. People who do business in America, they’re still doing business and keeping their partners close to them. But it’s not the time to come and invest. Everybody’s waiting to see what happens.
If there is a tariff or all sorts of measures to put pressure on the relationship, it’s going to be a tough time for all of us. It’s going to be very difficult. Inflation, unemployment, and recession. Tariffs will hurt deeply.
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