With post-election gains in the rear-view mirror, Morgan Stanley’s (MS-6.57%) chief U.S. equity strategist is raising some concerns about the fate of the S&P 500 through at least June. The gist? The Trump bump may morph into a protracted slump.
Mark Wilson said the index could suffer as much as a 5% drop to 5,500 in the first half of 2025 — according to a report cited by Bloomberg — echoing other analysts’ fears regarding the near-term outcomes of tariffs, inflation, and other phenomena that have come to define the early days of President Trump’s second term.
The S&P 500 had fallen about 2.3% today as of 12:21 p.m. in New York. Its intraday low so far is 5,637.75 points. Since January 1, it’s slipped about 3.9%.
Wilson thinks the index may recover to 6,500 by year-end, but “the path is likely to be volatile as the market continues to contemplate these growth risks, which could get worse before they get better.”
Yet, the strategist warned a full-blown recession could torpedo the index by 20%, adding: “We are not there, but things can change quickly [….].”
Even with fomenting concerns, some analysts have recently offered rosier commentary on at least a few powerhouses in tech and retail:
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