Viewership for the annual Oscars show has long served as a cultural barometer — a way for Hollywood to gauge its relevance amid shifting political winds, fracturing media habits and changing social values.
In recent years, viewer totals for the ABC telecast have steadily risen. In 2024, nearly 20 million Americans watched the Oscars, up from 18.7 million in 2023 and 16.6 million a year before that, according to Nielsen data. Only 10.4 million people, the fewest on record, watched in 2021.
The takeaway in Hollywood: We’re doing a great job!
But this year’s numbers could send a different message.
In the run-up to the 97th Academy Awards on Sunday, worries about the size of the TV audience have rumbled through the movie capital. Concerns center on the nominated films: For the most part, Oscar voters singled out little-seen movies, potentially limiting viewer interest. Numerous best picture contenders carry progressive messages just as the country has veered right. Other award shows have struggled; ratings for the recent Grammys dropped 9 percent from last year, ending three years of gains.
To avoid a decline, ABC and the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, which produces the show, have intensified their marketing efforts and leaned into what is new — namely the ceremony’s host, Conan O’Brien, a first-time Oscars M.C. This show will also stream live on Hulu. Analysts estimate that the streamer could add several hundred thousand live viewers. (Like ABC, Hulu is owned by Disney, which holds Oscars distribution rights until 2028.)
The academy has also tried to steer attention toward overall viewership (people watching overseas, people catching a recording a few days later) and away from live viewing in the United States.
“The days of just saying how many people watched a show on linear TV night-of has evolved, and that’s good,” Bill Kramer, the academy’s chief executive, said at a recent event.
Oscars viewership tends to rise when popular films are nominated. The ceremony on Sunday, however, will showcase mostly movies with tiny ticket sales, even by art film standards. A favorite for best picture, “Anora,” would set a record for the worst domestic ticket sales in the category’s history (outside of a pandemic) if it wins, a distinction now held by “The Hurt Locker.” “Anora” has taken in only $15.6 million despite playing in theaters for more than four months.
Collectively, the 10 films nominated for best picture sold $1.8 billion in tickets worldwide, a 38 percent decline from last year’s group, which included “Barbie” and “Oppenheimer,” the eventual winner.
Politics could also prove problematic.
Most of the movies that Hollywood is poised to celebrate represent a cultural paradigm that was shattered by the presidential election. “Emilia Pérez,” a musical exploration of trans identity, has 13 nominations, the most of any film. In one way or another, “The Brutalist” (10 nods), “Wicked” (10), “Conclave” (eight), “I’m Still Here” (three), “Sing Sing” (three) and “Nickel Boys” (two) also serve as blow horns for progressive politics.
The messages — celebrate diversity and inclusion, treat immigrants with kindness, stand up against authoritarianism and racism — will resonate with millions of viewers. As will the related cris de coeur that some winners will inevitably make in their acceptance speeches. At the recent Screen Actors Guild Awards, Jane Fonda blasted the MAGA movement while accepting a lifetime achievement honor. “Woke just means you give a damn about other people,” she said, urging other stars to join her in speaking out.
But large portions of the country could reach for the remote, if they tune in at all.
“To succeed, the Oscars need to speak to the whole country,” said Miranda Banks, chair of Loyola Marymount University’s department of film, television and media studies. “Instead of an inside conversation — preaching to the choir — it needs to be an everyone conversation. Unfortunately, the academy often has a difficult time with this, which is why it’s losing certain audiences.”
Mr. O’Brien, the host, said he planned to touch on politics and move on.
“I think as host, I cannot ignore the moment we’re in,” Mr. O’Brien said at a virtual news conference on Wednesday. “But I’ll also make sure that the night doesn’t drift into being only about that.” He added that he planned to “infuse the show with positivity” and celebrate the ways in which filmmaking requires community and collaboration.
“It’s a difficult line to walk, but I’m determined to figure it out,” he said.
In the 1990s and shortly afterward, when populist movies like “Forrest Gump” and “Gladiator” won top prizes, the Oscars telecast routinely delivered about 45 million total viewers. In 1998, the high point, 57.2 million people watched “Titanic” win the trophy for best picture.
Ratings started to plunge in the mid-2010s as overall TV viewing shifted to streaming services and the ceremony became less about entertainment honors and more about civic issues.
At the same time, the #OscarsSoWhite outcries in 2015 and 2016, which were prompted by all-white slates of acting nominees, pushed the academy to sharply expand its overseas membership. More foreign-language and international art films started getting nominated for best picture as a result, breaking some of the show’s connection with American popular culture.
Members of the show’s production team said they were thrilled by the nominee hand they were dealt by academy voters this year. “We have an incredible slate of movies,” said Raj Kapoor, the telecast’s showrunner, adding that he was excited by “how diverse the nominees are, how diverse the movies are.”
In recent years, superstars like Beyoncé, Rihanna, Billie Eilish and Lady Gaga have performed at the Oscars. Sunday’s musical lineup includes the British singer Raye, fresh off a performance at the Grammys; the omnipresent Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, both nominees for their “Wicked” acting; the Thai rapper and singer Lisa of Blackpink; and the Los Angeles Master Chorale.
Mr. Kapoor declined to discuss their planned performances, saying he was counting on the element of surprise to juice ratings. In general, viewers should “keep a sharp eye out for a few different cameos,” Mr. Kapoor said. He also talked up a segment honoring Quincy Jones, who received a posthumous honorary Oscar in November, and featuring Queen Latifah.
“We think it will be very celebratory and make everybody feel really good,” Mr. Kapoor said of the Jones tribute.
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