Winning the most votes and providing Germany’s next chancellor — the conservative Union of the and its Bavarian sister party the has achieved this goal.”We won the 2025 federal election,” enthused, CDU leader and the Union’s chancellor candidate, on election night in Berlin.
The celebrations at party headquarters were muted, however. The conservatives had expected a much better result: “30% plus X,” as they said on the campaign trail.
In the end, they secured about 28% of the vote — not enough to govern alone under Germany’s electoral system. The CDU/CSU needs to find coalition partners to form the required majority.
Looking purely at the numbers, the second-placed could be an option. One in five German voters chose the populist party, parts of which are right-wing extremist. “We have doubled! They wanted to halve us, but the opposite has happened,” triumphed AfD co-leader . According to her, the CDU and CSU would only be able to fulfill their election promises, such as ending irregular migration, by working with the AfD.
However, during the election campaign, the CDU/CSU categorically ruled out forming a coalition government with the AfD. “We have fundamental differences of opinion, for example in foreign policy, in security policy, in many other areas, on the topics of Europe, NATO and the Euro currency,” reiterated Friedrich Merz on election night. “You can hold out your hand as much as you like,” he told Weidel, who in turn threatened that, as the largest opposition force, the AfD would put pressure on the government: “We will hound the others, so they make sensible policies for our country,” Weidel said.
Friedrich Merz promises change
The main topic during the campaign, apart from the weak economy, was asylum policy. “You can sense the uncertainty among Germans,” is how CSU head analyzed the success of the AfD. People were not sure that the CDU/CSU would really implement their promises. That is why many voters had “wound up” with the AfD, Söder said, adding: “We will do everything we can to organize a change of direction in Germany.”
The center-left and environmentalist are potential coalition partners. Both parties, which were in the previous government, must first cope with their losses. The SPD was hit hard — suffering its worst election result since 1890 with about 16% of the vote. “That is a bitter election result for the Social Democratic Party,” Chancellor , who remains in the role until the new government takes over, conceded. Defense Minister spoke of a “devastating, catastrophic result.”
Luckless Chancellor Olaf Scholz
Scholz is the only German chancellor not to be reelected in the past five decades. His coalition of the SPD, Greens, and neoliberal had ruled for less than 3 years when it over budget disputes. He has already announced that he does not want a ministerial role if the SPD is part of the new government.
It was not only the SPD that was punished by voters now. The FDP lost drastically, failing to clear the so-called “5% hurdle” of voter support — meaning they will not be represented in the next Bundestag parliament. FDP leader announced his retirement from politics following the defeat.
The Greens managed to contain their losses. The party’s top candidate spoke of a “respectable election result,” saying: “We were not so severely punished, but we wanted more, and we have not achieved that.” If the CDU/CSU needed the Greens to form a coalition, his party was ready to talk, Habeck said.
Left Party secures its place in the Bundestag
The Union had already ruled out a coalition with the socialist . After the split from the Left in early 2024, support for the Left Party had dwindled to 3 % in the polls. However, the Left Party made an unexpected comeback; with more than 8% of the vote, it was the surprise winner among the smaller parties.
No matter how complicated the coalition negotiations become, Germany’s future government faces enormous challenges. In view of the many pressing issues, the process of forming a government must be quick, said Friedrich Merz on the evening of his election victory. “The world is not waiting for us, nor is it waiting for lengthy coalition talks and negotiations.”
Germany must quickly become ready for action again, “so we can again be present in Europe and the world perceives that Germany is governed reliably.” According to the CDU, this could be more successful if the coalition agreement were designed more like a “framework” rather than hashed out in detail.
Huge budget hole
CDU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz favors economic growth and calls for cuts to social services. The biggest challenge for the new government is financing its future budgets. Tax revenue is no longer enough to pay for all upcoming government tasks. Growing military spending, restoring broken infrastructure, transforming the country to be climate friendly — all of this will gobble up billions of euros. This comes at a time when Germany is in the midst of its biggest economic crisis since in 1990.
This federal election was the first since on February 24, 2022. Since then, the German government has allocated about €28 billion ($29 billion) to military support for Ukraine. This made Germany the second biggest supporter of the Kyiv government after the US.
Conditions have changed since US President took office: The new US government has turned its back on Europe. Further help for Ukraine is primarily a job for the Europeans, according to Washington. From now on, Europe must also take greater responsibility for its own defense capability.
International expectations for Germany
This means the government needs to quickly set its priorities. Especially if Germany wants to take on the leadership role the CDU invoked during the election campaign. “As Germany, we need to take a leading role in Europe, not from above, but with France, with Poland, with a strong European Union,” CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann emphasized on public broadcaster ARD shortly before the vote.
The new Bundestag is required to assemble no later than 30 days after the election, by March 25. According to Germany’s constitution, the term of Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the rest of the federal government ends with this inaugural session. If there is no new government by then, the old one will remain in office in a caretaker capacity.
This article was originally written in German.
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