BRUSSELS — When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Union leaders roll into Kyiv on Monday to mark the third anniversary of Russia’s invasion, Ukraine will be looking for answers — on military aid, political backing and a critical economic question: trade.
At risk of losing its privileged access to the EU market this June, Ukraine is scrambling to get an extension of tariff suspensions that have helped keep its economy afloat in wartime. But as Kyiv presses for clarity, European leaders are stalling, caught between pledging continued solidarity, the shifting stance of United States President Donald Trump, and appeasing antsy farmers at home.
Trump’s return to the White House has rattled Kyiv. In his first month on the job, he has signaled that U.S. support for Ukraine is no longer assured, refused to take calls from von der Leyen, and suggested that Kyiv should cede territory to Russia to end the war. His latest remarks — falsely blaming Ukraine for “starting” the war and branding President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator” — have heightened concerns that Washington could pull its support.
“If Washington forces a peace on Moscow’s terms, we’ll need Europe more than ever,” a Ukrainian official told POLITICO, granted anonymity like others interviewed in this story due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Farmers push back
The EU’s tariff breaks, known as Autonomous Trade Measures, were introduced in 2022 and threw an economic lifeline to Ukraine. Initially a show of solidarity, they have since become a flashpoint, with Poland and France leading efforts to impose safeguards in 2024 on seven “sensitive” farm products, including sugar and poultry, capping duty-free imports.
Now, with the tariff breaks set to expire on June 5 and EU leaders pledging to update the terms of a 2016 trade deal instead, European farm groups argue that existing safeguards are insufficient. Ukrainian sugar, for example, remains so cheap that even after tariffs kick in post-quota, it is still profitable for European firms to import it. Lobbyists in France, Germany and Poland insist their farmers cannot compete unless Brussels intervenes more aggressively.
Adding to tensions, Ukraine’s agriculture sector has rebounded faster than expected. Despite Russia’s occupation of its farmland and the fact Ukraine is the most heavily mined country in the world, its farmers have restored much of their productive capacity, regained Black Sea export routes, and adapted to wartime conditions by ramping up production and diversifying exports.
While trade negotiations on industrial exports have gone smoothly, agricultural exports — which represent over half of Ukraine’s total exports — remain highly contentious. Ukraine’s farm revival, once seen as a strength, is now a liability in the trade talks, fueling concerns in some EU states that unrestricted Ukrainian imports could undercut local producers.
Ukrainian officials reject accusations of market disruption. They argue that their agricultural exports complement rather than threaten European production, blaming trade tensions on political maneuvering rather than actual market distortions.
“We’ve proven we can still deliver,” said a Ukrainian farm lobbyist. “But that’s exactly why the Europeans are nervous. They’re afraid we’ll flood their market.”
The Brussels battle begins
As von der Leyen arrives in Kyiv she faces mounting pressure to clarify Ukraine’s trade future. But even if she makes an offer, the real battle lies ahead — balancing farmer pressure with broader political stability in the EU.
Poland is central to the dilemma. Although Prime Minister Donald Tusk ousted the nationalist Law and Justice party over a year ago, his pro-Ukraine stance is tempered by the farmer protests. With a presidential election in May, Tusk’s centrist government is wary of alienating rural voters — but is also poised to block Ukraine’s broader trade prospects.
“There is no place for Ukraine in the EU unless it aligns its agricultural standards with ours,” a senior Polish official said, referencing concerns over Ukraine’s looser pesticide regulations despite its progress toward EU alignment. “We cannot liberalize trade right now — there is no question about it.”
While von der Leyen is expected to reaffirm EU support for Ukraine’s economic resilience, trade and agriculture officials in Kyiv worry they are being strung along.
“For now, we see an ambiguous vision from the European Commission and the EU regarding our future trade relations,” Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval told the Interfax agency on Thursday, adding that this uncertainty is pushing Kyiv to look beyond Europe and into markets like Africa and the Middle East.
Still, that shift comes at a cost. Koval acknowledged that the EU remains Ukraine’s most valuable trading partner due to its premium prices and established logistics.
For EU officials, Trump’s stance makes the trade question even more urgent. If Ukraine loses both U.S. backing and its privileged EU trade terms, it could find itself dangerously isolated just as its economy remains heavily dependent on Western aid.
“The EU has to wake up,” the Ukrainian official said. “If we lose U.S. support and then Europe caves to its own farmers, we’re on our own. And Russia will be watching.”
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