Germany’s new government will have huge foreign policy challenges to deal with when it comes into power: many are calling this moment in German history nothing less than the beginning of a new era, one in which the country will have to reorient itself in many, almost all areas. Or, to put it another way: a final farewell to the comfortable position of being an economically powerful, yet geopolitically rather cautious nation.
For many decades following , West Germany remained firmly committed to the West, becoming an ambassador for multilateralism and an advocate of democracy and the rule of law. Foreign policy decisions were made in close cooperation with friendly Western states, while the US was responsible for the country’s security.
And now? At the in mid February, new US Vice President JD Vance announced that Europe must pay its own defense costs and take responsibility for its own defense. In an interview with DW, , chairman of the center-right and Germany’s likely next chancellor, expressed his irritation: “We are at a historic juncture: security guarantees from the US are being called into question and the Americans are questioning democratic institutions.”
And all of this is happening at breakneck speed.
The US and China
Roderich Kiesewetter, foreign affairs expert of the CDU parliamentary group, says the country is at a crossroads. He believes Germany must understand that its democracy and rule of law are increasingly under threat. , for example, is currently doing everything it can to expand its influence and to make democratic states such as Germany more dependent.
In an interview with DW, Kiesewetter advocated for policies that prioritize Germany’s own national and economic interests.
“Otherwise, the economic impact will be massive, and NATO will no longer be effective as a deterrent,” Kiesewetter said. “To achieve this, however, a clear strategic and political reorientation of foreign and security policy is necessary. Old-fashioned appeasement thinking and naivety about China are not the way forward, but rather counterproductive.”
German peacekeeping troops in Ukraine?
Even when it comes to the still dominant topic of Ukraine policy, nothing is likely to stay the same. After the began in spring 2022, Germany became Ukraine’s biggest supporter after the US, both militarily and in terms of taking in refugees.
Now an agreement to end the war seems to be in the making, which will presumably be negotiated only between the US and Russia. Germany and other countries, likely mainly from Europe, would then have the responsibility of safeguarding such an agreement with their own soldiers. In any event, US President has already announced that he does not want to contribute.
Whether or not German voters will accept this remains to be seen: In a survey conducted by pollster Forsa, 49% said they are in favor of such a deployment, while 44% are not.
The German armed forces are being vastly expanded
What is certain is that Germany must focus on ensuring its own effective defenses, preferably in close cooperation with other EU member states. Bundestag lawmaker Anton Hofreiter has estimated the costs at €500 billion ($520 billion), a staggering sum.
And according to CDU chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, Germany must take the initiative in Europe.
“Everyone expects Germany to take greater responsibility for leadership,” Merz told DW. “I have repeatedly called for this. Germany is by far the most populous country in Europe. Germany is situated in the geostrategic center of the European continent. We must fulfill this role.”
For Merz, German rearmament is not only important with regards to Ukraine: “It’s about ensuring peace in Europe from Russian aggression, which we face here in Germany every day: the threat to our infrastructure, the threat to our data networks, the threat to the data cables under the Baltic Sea.”
Will defense budgets near double after 2028?
What does all this mean in practical terms? This will likely mean a build-up of military capabilities, which the current Minister of Defense, (SPD), brought into play back in October 2023 when he said the country needed to be “ready for war.” Since the summer of 2022, there has been a special fund (financed with new debt) of around €100 billion for the rearmament of the , but this will be used up by 2028. Spending on the army could then skyrocket from the current level of around €50 billion a year to €80 or even €90 billion. Whether that money will be raised by incurring additional debt or by cutting other parts of the national budget is currently the subject of heated debate in the election campaign.
According to Kieswetter, however, this drastic increase is existential for the incoming government. If Germany does not build up its military strength, it will no longer be taken seriously in Washington: “With respect to the future transatlantic partnership, Europe must contribute the minimum necessary to ensure that the US remains a strong partner in Europe and NATO.”
No change of policy towards Israel
In the Middle East, on the other hand, Germany’s influence will remain rather limited, as it has been in the past. The incoming government will continue to be guided by ,” which means resolutely upholding Israel’s right to exist. And it will continue to advocate for a “two-state solution” of an Israeli and a Palestinian state. Even if this is becoming less and less likely.
New Partners: Saudi Arabia and Latin American countries?
Foreign Minister has repeatedly invoked a common Europe as the answer to all the changes in the world.
“We are 450 million people. We are the largest single market in the world,” she said on German public broadcaster ZDF television. “We have forged new partnerships. And we must now make use of all of this together and not get lost in the minutiae.”
These new partnerships include agreements with the countries of the Gulf region as well as with the Mercosur nations of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay, as the association treaty concluded with the EU in December 2024.
In summary, Germany is at the beginning of breathtaking changes in its foreign policy.
This article was originally written in German.
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