LONDON — Reform UK voters are significantly more skeptical about continued British support for Ukraine than their counterparts in the country’s other main parties, new research shared with POLITICO shows.
A third (33 percent) of Reform UK voters think Britain should cut its contributions to Ukraine’s war effort if President Donald Trump reduces U.S. support, the Opinium survey — designed by foreign policy analyst Sophia Gaston for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute think tank — found.
That figure stands at 19 percent for Conservative voters and just 15 percent for Labour voters.
The researchers polled 2,050 adults between Jan. 8 and 10, with the figures weighted to ensure they are representative.
The findings come as the right-wing Reform challenges Keir Starmer’s incumbent Labour government in the polls and amid a live debate about deepening British involvement in Ukraine. Trump is pushing ahead with peace talks with Russia after years of conflict and has heavily signaled reduced American involvement in European security.
The research shows that Reform voters’ views on foreign policy are nuanced. “Reform voters are concerned about China, supportive of higher defence spending, and believe in the efficacy of the AUKUS security pact,” it notes.
“They are, however, reticent for the U.K. to play a larger role in world affairs, and outliers in their skepticism towards funding for Ukraine,” it adds.
Thirty-nine percent of Reform voters questioned said they would support maintaining British contributions to Ukraine at their current levels if the America pulls back. That is on a par with the other main parties.
Some 41 percent of Conservatives back keeping current support levels in such a situation — while 39 percent of Labour voters say the same.
However, on upping British contributions for Ukraine in the absence of the U.S., Reform voters appear more wary than their counterparts in the other main parties.
Just 13 percent said they would back increased U.K. help for Ukraine’s fight if Trump cuts it.
For Tory voters, that figure is higher, at 25 percent. For Labour voters it stands at 30 percent.
“Reform voters … are more impatient about bringing the conflict to an end,” Gaston said. “They tend to be less enthusiastic advocates for the ‘as long as it takes’ rhetoric favored by both the established parties.”
Tice: Trump can bang heads together
Since February 2022, there has been a near unanimous agreement in Westminster for standing behind Kyiv. Under both the Tories and Labour, £12.8 billion has been given to Ukraine’s war effort. Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged £3 billion per year for “as long as it takes,” and this week broke cover to pledge British boots on the ground as part of a post-war peacekeeping force.
Reform UK Leader Farage, the longstanding Brexit campaigner who entered parliament last July with four colleagues, has challenged that consensus. He has argued the war needs “concessions on both sides,” dismissed the idea of Ukraine winning the conflict as “for the birds” and questioned Britain’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire its long-range missiles inside Russia.
While Labour strategists believe they can paint Farage as unpatriotic, he argued last week that Ukraine should be allowed to join NATO — putting him at odds with his longstanding ally in the White House, Donald Trump.
Reform’s Deputy Leader Richard Tice told POLITICO: “We have to stop the senseless killing and Trump is best placed to do that by banging heads together.”
Starmer’s insistence the U.K. is “ready and willing” to deploy British peacekeepers hasn’t gone down well among’s Reform’s top brass. “We can’t even protect our own borders, and Starmer is aiming to put British troops on the ground in Ukraine,” tweeted MP Rupert Lowe Monday.
“They’ve always been very good at mopping up support from people who are dissatisfied, distrusting and disapproving,” said Deltapoll director Joe Twyman, a public opinion researcher, of Reform.
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